September 2019 - Warm End of September

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
sau27
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Re: September 2019 - Imelda Weakens. Flash Flood Watch/Heavy Rainfall Threat

Post by sau27 » Thu Sep 19, 2019 9:27 am

Looking at satellite and surface obs it is very apparent moist inflow is pumping in very hard. Satellite shows low level clouds being sucked in from the south. Surface obs to the south show southerly winds with dew points at or near 80 degrees indicating VERY moist air.

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DoctorMu
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Re: September 2019 - Imelda Weakens. Flash Flood Watch/Heavy Rainfall Threat

Post by DoctorMu » Thu Sep 19, 2019 9:28 am

tireman4 wrote:
Thu Sep 19, 2019 8:53 am
Those inflow rates (25 to 40 knots), the dewpoints down around the coast (80 degrees) and the serious moisture (2.0 to 2.2 PWATS) in the area will be a headache all day long. Folks, please stay tuned here, HGX and your local outlets for information.
Nature's firehose. Incredibly concerning, even as the center drifts far away.NNW.

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Stay safe everyone!

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Re: September 2019 - Imelda Weakens. Flash Flood Watch/Heavy Rainfall Threat

Post by srainhoutx » Thu Sep 19, 2019 9:29 am

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1002 AM CDT THU SEP 19 2019

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR NORTH CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL NOON CDT.

* AT 957 AM CDT, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. RAIN RATES OF THREE TO FIVE
INCHES AN HOUR CAN BE POSSIBLE. PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEST COUPLE OF HOURS. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN SHORTLY. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO STAY PUT AND DO NOT
VENTURE OUT ON ROADWAYS.

THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR NORTH CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTY.
THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
HUMBLE, ALDINE, CLOVERLEAF, CHANNELVIEW, NORTHSIDE / NORTHLINE,
GREATER GREENSPOINT, SPRING, BARRETT, NEAR NORTHSIDE HOUSTON,
HIGHLANDS, NORTHEASTERN GREATER HEIGHTS, CROSBY, BUSH
INTERCONTINENTAL AIRPORT, EASTEX / JENSEN AREA, CENTRAL NORTHWEST,
WILLOWBROOK, HUNTERWOOD, EL DORADO / OATES PRAIRIE, HIDDEN VALLEY
AND ACRES HOME.

Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: September 2019 - Imelda Weakens. Flash Flood Watch/Heavy Rainfall Threat

Post by srainhoutx » Thu Sep 19, 2019 9:42 am

New Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion out for the Houston Area into Far Western Louisiana.
09192019 mcd0869.gif
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0869
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1111 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019

Areas affected...Southeast TX...Far western LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 191509Z - 192109Z

Summary...Life-threatening flash flooding will continue across
portions of southeast Texas associated with Tropical Depression
Imelda. Extremely heavy rainfall will persist and drop south
toward Galveston Bay and the Houston metro.


Discussion...Tropical Depression Imeda is positioned 55 north of
Houston and is migrating north. As a result, expect heavy rainfall
to continue across portions of southeast TX into far west LA.
However, do anticipate the axis of heaviest rainfall to slowly
migrate south over the Houston metro area.

Over the next few (1-3) hours rain rates will remain very high
across this region. However, it is expected that the overall rain
rates will start to decrease by mid-afternoon. This is likely due
to the transition of the mid-level low position and forcing edging
northward which will aid in migrating the moisture flux/transport
away from the instability axis closer to the coast. Anticipate the
axis of heaviest rain/highest rain rates to shift toward Trinity
and Galveston Bay and the Houston metro area. This shift is
associated with the surface and boundary layer convergence
gradient which is farther south of the apparent low circulation.
Another factor that is contributing to the higher rainfall totals
is the training/backbuilding of convection oriented northwest to
southeast toward Hamshire, TX. This moisture feed is expected to
continue with the unidirection flow in place, though the position
should sag south.

Rainfall totals over the next couple of hours will be around 3 to
6 inches with locally higher amounts expected. Rain rates of over
3 inches per hour are still plausible as HREF probabilities are
still upwards of 50% for this threshold. Given heavy rain is
moving into areas already saturated from previous rainfall during
yesterdays activity, expect vulnerable soils to become iundated
rather quickly, especially across urban areas. Therefore, we are
continuing to message signicant to life-threatening flash flooding
across this region through mid-afternoon.

Pagano

ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...LCH...
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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TexasBreeze
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Re: September 2019 - Imelda Weakens. Flash Flood Watch/Heavy Rainfall Threat

Post by TexasBreeze » Thu Sep 19, 2019 9:49 am

Did the low reform further south overnight? I thought it was in Lufkin as of last night!

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Re: September 2019 - Imelda Weakens. Flash Flood Watch/Heavy Rainfall Threat

Post by srainhoutx » Thu Sep 19, 2019 9:50 am

Greens Bayou @ US 59 reports 6.24 inches the past hour.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: September 2019 - Imelda Weakens. Flash Flood Watch/Heavy Rainfall Threat

Post by brooksgarner » Thu Sep 19, 2019 9:52 am

Unfortunate decision to hold class at Houston Public Schools HISD... Flash Flood Emergency means it'll be hazardous for parents to get their kids out of school... and how will Houston's roads look in four hours, when the final bell rings???
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Re: September 2019 - Imelda Weakens. Flash Flood Watch/Heavy Rainfall Threat

Post by davidiowx » Thu Sep 19, 2019 10:00 am

I think that is the first time I have seen a Civil Emergency Message before.

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Re: September 2019 - Imelda Weakens. Flash Flood Watch/Heavy Rainfall Threat

Post by Waded » Thu Sep 19, 2019 10:04 am

I had to go Atascocita this morning. It was raining hard when I got there. When I left it was Stormapocalypse. Parking lots and roads flooding, incredibly rain, thunder, and lightning. Seriously dark clouds - the automatic lights at the gas stations and such were turning on. Amazing to me how everyday has been worse than the last with this event.
Last edited by Waded on Thu Sep 19, 2019 10:12 am, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: September 2019 - Imelda Weakens. Flash Flood Watch/Heavy Rainfall Threat

Post by Andrew » Thu Sep 19, 2019 10:07 am

Im in the Garden oaks/ Oak Forest area myself and it is coming down hard.
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