September 2019 - Warm End of September

[srainhoutx]

For our neighbors in far SE Texas...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
632 AM CDT THU SEP 19 2019

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
ORANGE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 930 AM CDT.

* AT 625 AM CDT, DOPPLER RADAR AND AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGES INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.
JEFFERSON COUNTY DRAINAGE DISTRICT 6 GAGES INDICATE 7 TO 15 INCHES
OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN SINCE LAST EVENING. FLASH FLOODING IS
OCCURRING, WITH NUMEROUS ROADS IMPASSABLE AND REPORTS OF WATER
RESCUES AND EVACUATIONS. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES.
THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!
IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE AND NEED ASSISTANCE, PLEASE CALL 911. IF
YOU CANNOT GET THROUGH 911, CALL BEAUMONT POLICE DEPARTMENT AT
409-832-1234, OR JEFFERSON COUNTY SHERIFF OFFICE AT 409-835-8411.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
BEAUMONT, PORT ARTHUR, ORANGE, NEDERLAND, GROVES, PORT NECHES,
VIDOR, BRIDGE CITY, NOME, HAMSHIRE, CENTRAL GARDENS, MAURICEVILLE,
CHINA, ROSE CITY, PINE FOREST, PORT ACRES, FOREST HEIGHTS,
ORANGEFIELD, FANNETT AND LA BELLE.

[jasons2k]

The rain has started here. Conroe ISD just cancelled classes. Boss texted the team and told us to stay home.

[srainhoutx]

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
700 AM CDT THU SEP 19 2019

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN SAN JACINTO,
EAST CENTRAL MONTGOMERY, CHAMBERS, AND LIBERTY COUNTIES...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN SAN JACINTO COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
EAST CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
CHAMBERS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1100 AM CDT.

* AT 654 AM CDT, EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS REPORTED FLASH FLOODING
ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. THERE ARE ONGOING NUMEROUS WATER RESCUES,
STRUCTURAL FLOODING IN PORTIONS OF LIBERTY AND CHAMBERS COUNTIES,
AND NUMEROUS ROAD CLOSURES. 10 TO 20 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS FALLEN
SO FAR WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN LIBERTY AND CHAMBERS
COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR PORTIONS OF SAN JACINTO,
MONTGOMERY, CHAMBERS, AND LIBERTY COUNTIES. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY
DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
CONROE, LIBERTY, CLEVELAND, DAYTON, WILLIS, ANAHUAC, PANORAMA
VILLAGE, SPLENDORA, PATTON VILLAGE, ROMAN FOREST, WOODBRANCH, OLD
RIVER-WINFREE, CUT AND SHOOT, AMES, DAISETTA, HARDIN, PLUM GROVE,
KENEFICK, COVE AND DEVERS.

[bikerack]

Not a shocker but I-10 is shut down in both directions in Beaumont.

[jasons2k]

You can see the inflow off the Gulf on radar, and unlike yesterday, there is nothing offshore to impede it. It's like pouring gas on a fire right now.

[Cromagnum]

Now imagine if it did all that 40-50 miles west of where its at...

[jasons2k]

Now imagine if it did all that 40-50 miles west of where its at...

I was thinking about that this morning. When this was coming ashore, the NHC track and the models all had this drifting NNW, up towards Madisonville and the models painted the worst of the rain right over the Houston Metro area. I suggested then, that was going to bust big time. And Imelda ended-up going up towards Lufkin instead...and we are unfortunately, for Beaumont, seeing what is unfolding to our east now. Yes, a small shift in trajectory and a few miles can make a huge difference. With these precip. gradients it's like night and day, feast or famine.

Now we are in part 2, (or 3?) where these feeder bands are slamming us. It's mixing with some dry air, so we're getting all these thunderstorms, more like a springtime MCS that is stationary. It's gonna be a long day for those of us stuck under this band.

[srainhoutx]

Transtar image I-45 @ 105 in Montgomery County

[srainhoutx]

Folks in Houston proper be aware this morning...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
730 AM CDT THU SEP 19 2019

.AVIATION...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTS FROM ABOUT KCLL TO KIAH TO THE
COAST. EXPECT A MIX OF REDUCED VISIBILITES AND LOWER CEILINGS
DURING CONVECTION. LATEST HRRR BRINGS STRONG CONVECTION TO THE
HOUSTON TERMINALS BETWEEN 12-18Z WITH MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION
THEREAFTER. A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CEILINGS LATER TONIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS BEGINNING TO END. 43

[srainhoutx]

Update from Jeff:

Flash Flood Warning for NE Harris County until 1115am

6 hour rainfall rate at Conroe this morning has been 8.3 inches.

Band of excessive rainfall moving into NE Harris County with hourly rainfall rates of 2-5 inches. Rapid flash flooding will onset across the Kingwood, Humble, Huffman, and Crosby areas shortly. Rainfall rates will be intense enough to cause deep street flooding which may impact structures.

Travel is strongly discouraged in the Flash Flood Warning and Flash Flood Emergency areas.

Hydro:

East Fork:
Flooding is in progress and will worsen. FM 1485 is now under water and closed

Cedar Bayou:
Significant inflows will likely result in overbanks flooding along much of the channel

[Katdaddy]

There is a lot going on this morning but I also want share the following excerpt from this mornings HOU-GAL AFD:

Rain chances tapering down for a few days over the weekend but
then next big surge of moisture arrives Monday and some
indications of weak coastal troughing. Will be keeping an eye on a
wave coming in from the Caribbean Monday and Tuesday probably
arriving in the central Gulf Tuesday/Wednesday. We certainly
wouldn`t need this on the heels of Imelda.

[txbear]

Heartbreaking to see what's transpiring with all of the flood emergencies. Walked out from the garage in the Katy area to head in and it was like a wall of heat and humidity. You can just tell the atmosphere is just primed up for this.

That band on the north side of the metro keeps building back further west on past College Station, and looks to have extended an arm down to the east loop. And more storms starting to pop up to the SW.

[jasons2k]

I'm concerned about tornado spin-ups on the south flank. I just stepped outside and there is some decent low-level shear. The lowest clouds are racing from north to south in these gusts, but a few thousand feet up, the line is moving ESE.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I'm concerned about tornado spin-ups on the south flank. I just stepped outside and there is some decent low-level shear. The lowest clouds are racing from north to south in these gusts, but a few thousand feet up, the line is moving ESE.

Saw that exact same thing walking to my car a bit ago. Reminds me of Spring.

We are just getting the first bit of that line now in Magnolia

[Kingwood36]

Is this line expected to drift south over downtown houston?

[Katdaddy]

Yes, it was also extremely humid early this morning in League City and I had the same thought that the atmosphere is primed and ready. Very dark in downtown Houston currently rapidly moving scud clouds streaming N.

[srainhoutx]

Is this line expected to drift south over downtown houston?

It's certainly possible...

[bikerack]

Watching the various local coverage this morning....some have it coming all the way down to downtown and some have it kind of dissipate north of downtown.

My street in kingwood is flooded to the curb now.

[tireman4]

This will be an interesting, ever changing day. Stay tuned, because it will change during the heating hours...one thing that caught my eye in the disco this morning. With the dynamics set up...look out..

VWP
clearly showing the deep rich moisture transport into the cell
development...25-49 knots of inflow! Dewpoints of 80 at Galveston
and PW estimates 2.2-2.4" feeding these storms.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 191230
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
730 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

.AVIATION...
A line of thunderstorms persists from about KCLL to KIAH to the
coast. Expect a mix of reduced visibilites and lower ceilings
during convection. Latest HRRR brings strong convection to the
Houston terminals between 12-18z with more scattered convection
thereafter. A mix of MVFR and VFR ceilings later tonight with
scattered showers beginning to end. 43