September 2019 - Warm End of September

[srainhoutx]

NWS Houston‏Verified account @NWSHouston · 6m6 minutes ago

Imelda Total Rainfall Accumulations over SE Texas from 12 AM CDT Tuesday through 7 AM CD Wednesday. These are subject to change as additional rainfall is expected through Thursday.

Continue to monitor the NWS & NHC products for additional information.
#imelda #txwx #houwx #glswx

[srainhoutx]

Wednesday morning weather briefing from Jeff:

Center of Imelda drifting over SW Montgomery County.

Lull in heavy rainfall over Harris County should last until early afternoon as intense feeder band along the coast prevent good low level inflow. Incredible rainfall rates of 3-4 inches per hour have resulted in a 24 hour storm total of 21.34 inches at Sargent with 7.56 inches falling in 1.5 hours and 10.72 inches in 3 hrs this morning. This shows the potential of this air mass to produce excessive rainfall in a short period of time.

As the air mass heats and destabilizes late this morning into the early afternoon hours and the coastal feeder band begins to weaken and break down, expect renewed development along/near the US 59 corridor. Where exactly this band develops and how defined it becomes remains in question, but higher intensity rainfall rates will be possible with this feature mid to late afternoon into the evening hours. Should this rainfall fall over already hard hit areas in SE/E Harris County significant run-off would be likely.

There has been no changes to the expected rainfall forecasts of an additional 2-4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches this afternoon through Thursday morning.

[Scott747]

Folks need to take this seriously. WPC just issued a high risk for part of our area.

I'm at almost 5 inches since midnight...

I hope you & yours stayed safe, Scott - keeping you in good thoughts

Thanks, so far so good.

The really heavy training line stayed just far enough to the S....

[jasons2k]

That rainfall map....about what I figured. You could see an unlabeled map and guess where downtown Houston is....

[unome]

Folks need to take this seriously. WPC just issued a high risk for part of our area.

I'm at almost 5 inches since midnight...

I hope you & yours stayed safe, Scott - keeping you in good thoughts

Thanks, so far so good.

The really heavy training line stayed just far enough to the S....

good to know, tks for the reply - take care

[txbear]

I have to say the way the dry slot is nicely and geometrically situated along roughly the triangle created by 45 north and 59 south is a sight. But mercy the major feeder along the coast just keeps back building with no apparent movement in any direction. Lots of lightning in it as well, so definitely a hefty amount of energy out there.

If I'm following Jeff's update and the mesoscale models correctly, with the northward drift of the center of circulation and day time heating, bands could start forming further inland. Wait and see how the day unfolds for those north and west of downtown.

[redneckweather]

As I was saying yesterday, when a band of rain would hit Montgomery County, it would completely fall apart right before getting to me. Now the coc is right over my house and hardly a sprinkle. I have had just enough to wet the pavement if that. This is down right comical.

[Kingwood36]

Anyone know what it is like on the east end of downtown? Im driving in to work from Angleton

[unome]

MIMIC-TC for Imelda - last 48 hrs: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... lay48.html

nasty southern arc

[djmike]

Still pouring in beaumont. This band isn’t moving much. Not good for us here in the Golden Triangle. Other plants near by have shut down and sent all employees home. Ill try to get out later and get some pics of the flooding here. Right now on an island in my neighborhood.

[stormlover]

DJ might not be able to get out, not moving to much looks like this for much of the day with more starting later tonight and into thursday morning

[CrashTestDummy]

MIMIC-TC for Imelda - last 48 hrs: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... lay48.html

nasty southern arc

Which means.......?

We've received 6.61" in northern Brazoria County since yesterday afternoon, 1.05" since midnight. I'm okay with this thing blowing out now.

[srainhoutx]

I'm seeing signs of training setting up S and E of that surface low. Areas from Montgomery, Liberty, Northern and NE Harris Counties may see rainfall of 2 to 4 inches from this band.

[stormlover]

srain, here is the 12z HRR

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1812&fh=32

[redneckweather]

Blue dot is me. Its looked this way since yesterday.

[Kingwood36]

When is this suppose to be done and move out of here?

[stormlover]

friday morning

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
855 AM CDT WED SEP 18 2019

WHARTON TX-BRAZORIA TX-MATAGORDA TX-
855 AM CDT WED SEP 18 2019

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN WHARTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHERN BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
MATAGORDA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 245 PM CDT WEDNESDAY.

* AT 844 AM CDT, EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED FLOODING ALONG
ROADWAY NEAR FM 457 NEAR SARGENT AND NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF
HIGHWAY 36 AND FM 1495 NEAR FREEPORT. TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING BROUGHT RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF AROUND 16 INCHES. ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED AND WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE FLOODING.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
MATAGORDA, LAKE JACKSON, BAY CITY, FREEPORT, CLUTE, SWEENY,
SURFSIDE BEACH, SOUTH TEXAS NUCLEAR PLANT, RICHWOOD, BRAZORIA,
JONES CREEK, OYSTER CREEK, SARGENT, WILD PEACH VILLAGE, BLESSING,
MARKHAM, VAN VLECK, MIDFIELD, WADSWORTH AND DANEVANG.

[djmike]

srain, here is the 12z HRR

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1812&fh=32

Not good for us. Im inclined to believe this run more as it matches up almost exactly where the bulk of the rain bands are today. Chambers and Jefferson counties, not what we want to see. Thanks for posting Stormlover!

[LightningBolt]

I'm seeing signs of training setting up S and E of that surface low. Areas from Montgomery, Liberty, Northern and NE Harris Counties may see rainfall of 2 to 4 inches from this band.

Good morning. What portions of Liberty County does it appear that the training will occur?