September 2019 - Warm End of September

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
jabcwb2
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Lurker here.....so Cypress, Spring and Kingwood are not going to get the heavy rains over the next couple of days? Just enough to make the yards happy?!?!?!?!?! Thanks for your fastidiousness to the weather!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :D

The reason I asked is because we close on our first home Thursday.....Moving from Cypress/Tomball line to Kingwood.

Any info would be great! Thanks so much.
Last edited by jabcwb2 on Tue Sep 17, 2019 12:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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srainhoutx
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TD 11 Update from Jeff:

Tropical depression forms just off the TX coast

Tropical Storm Warnings are issued from Sargent TX to Port Bolivar TX

Depression is located 15 miles SSW of Freeport TX moving to the N at 7mph.

The depression will make landfall over eastern Brazoria County and western Galveston County this afternoon.

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djmike
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tireman4 wrote: Tue Sep 17, 2019 12:28 pm 5000 Cape To The East of TD 11
What does that mean?
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tireman4
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djmike wrote: Tue Sep 17, 2019 12:33 pm
tireman4 wrote: Tue Sep 17, 2019 12:28 pm 5000 Cape To The East of TD 11
What does that mean?
Well, I am just a historian and librarian ( I will let the pros handle this) but that is a rich environment for rapid intensification..especially out in the Gulf...
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tireman4
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CAPE is a term you’ll hear a lot especially in severe weather season. CAPE stands for Convective Available Potential Energy and is a way of quantifying how much energy there is available in the atmosphere for thunderstorms to develop and strengthen. Thunderstorms are fueled by the buoyancy of air parcels in the atmosphere. An air parcel is a basketball sized parcel of air whose properties can be analyzed and tracked. Air parcels can have properties that can be either similar or different than their environment (the rest of the atmosphere at a given location) depending on the situation. The properties we care about most when trying to determine CAPE are temperature and dew point. Be sure to see my article explaining the dew point if you’re unfamiliar with that concept.
Texashawk
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So they do now think we will have a TS., right?
Cpv17
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djmike wrote: Tue Sep 17, 2019 12:33 pm
tireman4 wrote: Tue Sep 17, 2019 12:28 pm 5000 Cape To The East of TD 11
What does that mean?
A very unstable airmass with plenty of energy for significant storms.
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djmike
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Thanks guys for the explanation
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jabcwb2
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Lurker here.....so Cypress, Spring and Kingwood are not going to get the heavy rains over the next couple of days? Just enough to make the yards happy?!?!?!?!?! Thanks for your fastidiousness to the weather!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :D

The reason I asked is because we close on our first home Thursday.....Moving from Cypress/Tomball line to Kingwood.

Any info would be great! Thanks so much.
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jasons2k
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If the NHC track verifies (and I would bet on them) then the Houston area will indeed be at risk for a core event, similar to what yesterday’s models were showing after all....and I will retract my comments from this morning.
TexasBreeze
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All of Harris County is still under the threat of heavy rains and flooding. It looks to track right over the county and doing so at night and early morning is concerning...
Also don't forget about feeder banding setting up during daytime heating if it continues north then takes a more north westerly jog as NHC indicates.
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DoctorMu
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jasons wrote: Tue Sep 17, 2019 10:55 am
srainhoutx wrote: Tue Sep 17, 2019 10:51 am If you are looking at the various 12Z Mesoscale models, an eyebrow is raised with the very slow meandering surface low pressure that just seems to want to creep ever so slowly inland. There remains a lot of uncertainty regarding where (which locations/neighborhoods), how much rain will fall and just how long this will continue over the next 60 hours or so.
The big question is where does it come-in and then drift? Center seems to be east of all the models. That could make a HUGE difference, especially for folks like Cpv17 and Dr. Mu...
The storm has an elongated center. If I had to pick a very center, below Bay City now.

Still, we may get very little up here while the NE quadrant from Houston to Beaumont could be dealing with a foot+ of precip.
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jasons2k
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It will come down to tens of miles with this one....
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srainhoutx
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Key messages from West Gulf River Forecast Center...
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Rip76
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Tropical Storm Imelda
Texashawk
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Well, that escalated quickly... wasn’t this 20% to develop into a depression just last night?
Cromagnum
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Just got a Tropical Storm warning on my phone.
ccbluewater
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Why not just upgrade straight to T.S.? Regardless, impacts are the same.
Cpv17
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Texashawk wrote: Tue Sep 17, 2019 1:19 pm Well, that escalated quickly... wasn’t this 20% to develop into a depression just last night?
It was 10% for the longest time.
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