September 2019 - Warm End of September

[jasons2k]

If you are looking at the various 12Z Mesoscale models, an eyebrow is raised with the very slow meandering surface low pressure that just seems to want to creep ever so slowly inland. There remains a lot of uncertainty regarding where (which locations/neighborhoods), how much rain will fall and just how long this will continue over the next 60 hours or so.

The big question is where does it come-in and then drift? Center seems to be east of all the models. That could make a HUGE difference, especially for folks like Cpv17 and Dr. Mu...

[DoctorMu]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1712&fh=13

this would not be good for houston and beaumont

Feast or famine. Would be complete bust here.

[jasons2k]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1712&fh=13

this would not be good for houston and beaumont

Feast or famine. Would be complete bust here.

Based on the center placement that seems to be the more likely scenario. Too bad for those north and west.

[stormlover]

I hope this isn't a trend

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1712&fh=12

[djmike]

I hope this isn't a trend

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1712&fh=12

This raises both eyebrows for beaumont. Again east. This would put me smack dab bullseye.

[jasons2k]

This is going to bust north and west of downtown Houston. Center is east of the models and models are already tending east.

[mcheer23]

1. Updated: Recent satellite, radar, and surface data show that the
area of low pressure located over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico
near the Texas coast has become better defined this morning. The
associated thunderstorm activity has also increased and become a
little better organized. If these development trends continue, a
tropical depression could form before the system moves inland later
today or tonight, but significant additional development is not
likely once the system moves inland.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and flooding remain the
primary hazards with this system. This disturbance is expected to
produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with isolated
maximum totals of 15 inches across the upper coastal region of Texas
into far southwest Louisiana through Thursday. This rainfall may
produce life-threatening flash floods. For additional information,
see products issued by your local weather forecast office and the
Weather Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[djmike]

ANd we’ve already have flooding today. So that scenario is very possible

[jasons2k]

NHC is hedging and playing catch-up to reality, so when the official upgrade statement comes out it looks orderly. It’s already a TD for goodness sakes.

[sau27]

This is going to bust north and west of downtown Houston. Center is east of the models and models are already tending east.

I respectfully disagree. If you look at the 12z NAM 3km as well as the HRRR for 16-17Z the center is located just SE of the Brazoria/Matagorda county border, which is where it looks to be right now. I'm certainly not discounting the possibility of the rain jackpot being further east, but I think it is still too soon know know with any certainty right now. Additionally with slow movement wobbles will be possible that can have a big effect on impacts.

[don]

I respectfully disagree. If you look at the 12z NAM 3km as well as the HRRR for 16-17Z the center is located just SE of the Brazoria/Matagorda county border, which is where it looks to be right now. I'm certainly not discounting the possibility of the rain jackpot being further east, but I think it is still too soon know know with any certainty right now. Additionally with slow movement wobbles will be possible that can have a big effect on impacts.

I agree also, the center location right now is exactly where the majority of mesoscale models have it going inland. (around the Brazoria/Matagorda county line) Everything seems on track to me,the center is no further east than what the models were showing yesterday.

[redneckweather]

The rain just falls apart when it touches Montgomery County. I will be shocked if I get a half inch out of this.

[sau27]

Another thing I am noticing on the Meso models (particularly the 3 KM NAM and Tx Tech) is that early Thursday morning a convergence zone sets up on the back side of the low with a band of very heavy rainfall. NAM has it across the Bay and through central/southern Harris County while Tx Tech has it just off shore. We'll see if anything else latches on to that.

[jasons2k]

It’s sprinkling here. Dark grey skies to the south, blue sky and sunshine to the north. Livin’ on the edge as usual.

[djmike]

Almost 5” so far this morning in beaumont since 6am. Stay safe wherever this core sets up.

Beaumont Tx

[txbear]

I respectfully disagree. If you look at the 12z NAM 3km as well as the HRRR for 16-17Z the center is located just SE of the Brazoria/Matagorda county border, which is where it looks to be right now. I'm certainly not discounting the possibility of the rain jackpot being further east, but I think it is still too soon know know with any certainty right now. Additionally with slow movement wobbles will be possible that can have a big effect on impacts.

I agree also, the center location right now is exactly where the majority of mesoscale models have it going inland. (around the Brazoria/Matagorda county line) Everything seems on track to me,the center is no further east than what the models were showing yesterday.

Basically due south of Freeport/Lake Jackson, correct? I'm just trying to get a bead on any directional movement with the center. At times, it appears like it's meandering its way slight W of NW but I believe radar returns have an illusion effect to make it seem so. For sure lots of dry air to be overcome to the West and North.

[jasons2k]

I respectfully disagree. If you look at the 12z NAM 3km as well as the HRRR for 16-17Z the center is located just SE of the Brazoria/Matagorda county border, which is where it looks to be right now. I'm certainly not discounting the possibility of the rain jackpot being further east, but I think it is still too soon know know with any certainty right now. Additionally with slow movement wobbles will be possible that can have a big effect on impacts.

I agree also, the center location right now is exactly where the majority of mesoscale models have it going inland. (around the Brazoria/Matagorda county line) Everything seems on track to me,the center is no further east than what the models were showing yesterday.

We’ll see. Yesterday every model save the GFS painted 15”+ right up through central Harris and Montgomery counties with 15-20” for me. Waller was the bullseye on the Euro with 30” I believe. As of right now I doubt that’s going to happen based on what I am seeing.

[stormlover]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... plit&time=

dry air will not be a factor

[don]

Also, the flood threat doesn't really begin until late tonight or tomorrow morning once the center is inland,thats when models setup a core rain event over the area.

[jasons2k]

A buoy (KVAF) south of invest #98L near the Texas coast has consistently reported west winds ~ 25 kts (30 mph) the past few hours. This means that #98L's low-level center is not only closed but also very robust, thus, I highly doubt 98L hasn't already become a tropical depression pic.twitter.com/MRuPc5gBmq
-- Eric Webb (@webberweather) September 17, 2019

https://twitter.com/webberweather/statu ... 1029866496