September 2019 - Warm End of September

[Cpv17]

How far east have things shifted today? I’m assuming Eastern Harris County is in the thick of things now?

Eastern Harris County is definitely right there in the mix.

[jasons2k]

Why do I get the feeling that this is going to be an overachiever? I’m not worried about it becoming very intense or anything but I think it does ramp up before coming ashore and it will bring a lot of problems with it. pic.twitter.com/3Ei2YxaRrW
-- Mark Sudduth (@hurricanetrack) September 16, 2019

[stormlover]

we now have an invest

[srainhoutx]

Interesting that the NHC waited so long on designating 98L. The ensembles have been extremely bullish on TC genesis the past couple of days.

[mcheer23]

18z euro

[djmike]

18z euro looks eastward now more boliver side rather sw hou. Forecasted 3” at first for beaumont, now showing 7” with this run. Wonder if this will be a trend.

[stormlover]

Yep euro shifted eastward

[TexasBreeze]

Gotta watch that area circulating due south of Gal and due east of Corpus. It has a nice developed circulation with a persistent red t-storm cell attached to it. It has increased banding north of it too.

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar_l ... Z&loop=yes

[Rip76]

Interesting tonight.

[unome]

Interesting that the NHC waited so long on designating 98L. The ensembles have been extremely bullish on TC genesis the past couple of days.

frustrating, but glad they finally did http://hurricanecity.com/models/models. ... stinvest=1

Code: Select all

AL, 98, 2019091600,   , BEST,   0, 271N,  920W,  15, 1010, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0, GENESIS024,  ,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 024, 
AL, 98, 2019091606,   , BEST,   0, 271N,  927W,  15, 1010, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0, GENESIS024,  ,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 024, 
AL, 98, 2019091612,   , BEST,   0, 271N,  935W,  15, 1010, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0, GENESIS024,  ,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 024, 
AL, 98, 2019091618,   , BEST,   0, 272N,  943W,  20, 1010, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0, GENESIS024,  ,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 024, 
AL, 98, 2019091700,   , BEST,   0, 273N,  950W,  20, 1010, DB,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1012,  150,  90,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 024, SPAWNINVEST, al772019 to al982019, 

[Cpv17]

18z euro

I’ll gladly take that. Gives me about 3-4” of rain. Harris County doesn’t need no 10-16” though. Way too much concrete there.

[Cpv17]

Latest 12km NAM has a slight west shift with the heaviest totals. Bullseye right over Brazoria, Fort Bend, & Harris counties. Absolutely ridiculous totals of rain. 15-20”+.

[stormlover]

Yeah it will keep going back and forth

[don]

0z NAM ...

[Cpv17]

0z NAM ...

That’s insane.

[TexasBreeze]

We're getting into the timeframe where big shifts in the modeling is less likely and it soon will be "now casting" time. With the low "invest" developing currently, the model runs of 20+ in can't be ignored.

[Cpv17]

We're getting into the timeframe where big shifts in the modeling is less likely and it soon will be "now casting" time. With the low "invest" developing currently, the model runs of 20+ in can't be ignored.

There’s about a 50-75 mile shift west from the 18z to 0z NAM. That’s a pretty good shift west.

[Cpv17]

Both the 0z 12km NAM & 3KM have shifted a good bit west from 18z.

[sau27]

This little system isn’t looking too shabby right now. It’s maintaining convection over what looks to be a LLC. While it’s mostly acedemic if it hits the necessary threshold to make it to TD or TS status, the formation of a distinct Low level circulation enhances the possibility of a core rain event developing at some point.

[Cpv17]

NAM 3km totals: