September 2019 - Warm End of September

[srainhoutx]

Lake Charles reports numerous tropical funnels and waterspouts around the marshes/Bays. Expect those to increase as deep tropical moisture continues to stream inland.

[Cpv17]

On the next Euro update at 12z, I would expect to see the heavier totals shift east once again. Probably over Galveston and then Baytown then north into Liberty County. Seems about right seeing the east trends. Chances of rain diminishing with each model run for the western parts of the viewing area.

What is the basis of your line of thinking on this east shift ,because no one else here is talking about it.

Past couple days the heaviest totals were aimed at the western half of the viewing area and have been slowly shifting east with each passing model run. Now the heaviest totals are aimed towards the central part of the viewing area so the east trend may not be over with.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro spins up a weak low near Matagorda Bay tomorrow morning. That weak low drifts generally N to around Western Ft. Bend/Austin/W Harris/Waller Counties Wednesday morning. By Thursday morning the weak low is near Huntsville/Navasota.

[stormlover]

Looks like that was little beat more east than 00z run

[TexasBreeze]

Rain beginning to blossom south parts of the area and to the east. My sky by Klein is now mostly cloudy with multi layered low mid and high clouds. It is already moistening up around here. Winds are breezy too.

[unome]

I don't understand why GOES East Meso 2 isn't over theTX/LA Gulf states

[Andrew]

The ECMWF is faster than previous runs but the story is the same. My main concern here is for when and where banding and training could occur over the region. The intensification of this subtropical low over SE Texas and the LLJ that really ramps up Tuesday and Wednesday would suggest someone could see large totals. All models are showing heavy rain at this point, and now the bigger question for me is where.

[srainhoutx]

The WPC just Updated their Day 1 to 3 QPF Graphic. We will get the Updated graphics for 5 Days and 7 Days in a couple of hours as well as the afternoon Excessive Rainfall graphics.

[ccbluewater]

Wow the 12z Euro would be ugly. Has a 30" bullseye just south & west of Waller, and most of the Cypress area 12" plus. That wouldnt be good for the Cypress Creek flood plains. Wide spread 5-8" for Houston Metro. Obviously not going to assume this verifies entirely, but certainly raises another eye brow. On mobile so cant share any images for those that can't see.

[don]

12z Euro shows some areas at 30+ inches FWIW.

[stormlover]

http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weathe ... est&hh=072


ukmet pounds houston and southeast tx area

[srainhoutx]

WPC updates their Day 3 through Day 7 Hazards...

[djmike]

Pretty hefty band trough beaumont. Very tropical and at work id say winds sustained a good 25-30.

[jasons2k]

http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weathe ... est&hh=072
ukmet pounds houston and southeast tx area

Wow. 150cm = 59”

[sau27]

http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weathe ... est&hh=072
ukmet pounds houston and southeast tx area

Wow. 150cm = 59”

Those are mm. equals about 6 inches.

[jasons2k]

Here comes yet another “1,000-year” flood just two years after the last “1,000-year” flood. SMH.

[jasons2k]

http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weathe ... est&hh=072
ukmet pounds houston and southeast tx area

Wow. 150cm = 59”

Those are mm. equals about 6 inches.

Ahh much better!!

[djmike]

It's pouring in Beaumont....wow! Wasn't expecting this today.

[snowman65]

It's pouring in Beaumont....wow! Wasn't expecting this today.

Where are you located? I'm downtown by Julie Rogers....coming down good...

[unome]

Mark Nissenbaum has LCH, HGX & CRP radars on his site active right now

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/radar.html

you can increase the # of frames, speed up, make gif, etc... love his fsu pages