September 2019 - Warm End of September

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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srainhoutx
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Re: September 2019 - Gulf Mess Rain Chances. Work Week Heavy Rainfall Threat

Post by srainhoutx » Mon Sep 16, 2019 9:55 am

24 inch amounts across portions of SE Texas via the 12km NAM 12Z over a 84 hour period.
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Tx2005
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Re: September 2019 - Gulf Mess Rain Chances. Work Week Heavy Rainfall Threat

Post by Tx2005 » Mon Sep 16, 2019 9:57 am

srainhoutx wrote:
Mon Sep 16, 2019 9:55 am
24 inch amounts across portions of SE Texas via the 12km NAM 12Z over a 84 hour period.
That’s concerning :/

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Re: September 2019 - Gulf Mess Rain Chances. Work Week Heavy Rainfall Threat

Post by brooksgarner » Mon Sep 16, 2019 10:03 am

NAM joins EURO showing silly rainfall amounts run to run... but this is also dependent on if this thing develops into a tropical cyclone... just models, but interesting that GEM/NAM/EURO all bullish for flooding totals. Hope it doesn't happen but when it's doing this 4 days out it's a red flag and not to be written off. We all have an optimism/normalcy bias and that definitely influences long-range forecasts. This time of year, plan for the worst but hope for the best. Maybe it'll only be 4"-6"... we hope! Rain is needed, just not all at once.
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Re: September 2019 - Gulf Mess Rain Chances. Work Week Heavy Rainfall Threat

Post by Texashawk » Mon Sep 16, 2019 10:03 am

Model feedback issues, perhaps? Just doesn’t seem realistic! Any Mets care to chime in? I mean, if this is true, it’ll be a devastating flooding event but the various news channels seem to be taking an “eeehhh, it’s something to watch’ but not too concerned on the whole.

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Re: September 2019 - Gulf Mess Rain Chances. Work Week Heavy Rainfall Threat

Post by Cromagnum » Mon Sep 16, 2019 10:05 am

Heard a mention here and there about a core rain event potentially being the cause for all the rain. How strong does a tropical system have to be in order for a core rain event to even happen? I thought this was more typical when a strong storm comes ashore and dumps all at once as it weakens.

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Re: September 2019 - Gulf Mess Rain Chances. Work Week Heavy Rainfall Threat

Post by stormlover » Mon Sep 16, 2019 10:13 am

I still think there is going to be a lot of tough forecast with this

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Re: September 2019 - Gulf Mess Rain Chances. Work Week Heavy Rainfall Threat

Post by sau27 » Mon Sep 16, 2019 10:17 am

If I hadn't already seen the Euro I'd give it a hearty "LOL NAM". But I have, so I can't

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Re: September 2019 - Gulf Mess Rain Chances. Work Week Heavy Rainfall Threat

Post by BlueJay » Mon Sep 16, 2019 10:21 am

We have many Texas counties with a burn ban. Rain is needed.

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Re: September 2019 - Gulf Mess Rain Chances. Work Week Heavy Rainfall Threat

Post by don » Mon Sep 16, 2019 10:27 am

12z GFS is getting onboard also
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Re: September 2019 - Gulf Mess Rain Chances. Work Week Heavy Rainfall Threat

Post by stormlover » Mon Sep 16, 2019 10:32 am

Gfs slowly getting on board finally dang that model is bad

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