September 2019 - Warm End of September
Friendswood is about to get popped with a stray storm.
FWIW latest 0z NAM has the system turning into a moderate Tropical Storm.
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stormlover
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Yep models starting to move towards Houston let’s see what icon shows, we could get a name storm out of this
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stormlover
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First time the nam has showed this, euro can in stronger also today
We don’t need this to come in near Houston. The western areas of the viewing area that need the rain the most would get nothing. We need this to come in south of Port O’Connor and move up towards Victotria if all of southeast TX wants some rain.
The 0z ICON shows a storm also fwiw.
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stormlover
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Yep sure does
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stormlover
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Philippe Papinstormlover wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 10:44 pm http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_GULF/anim8ir.html
Good blow up tonight
https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1173421780649705472
Philippe Papin
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Important structural changes occurring w/ the upper-level low in the Gulf of Mexico.
A #MCS has formed to the northwest, where shear is low & mid-level moisture is high. If this MCS generates a llvl vortex, TC genesis may not be far behind as it drifts W towards #Texas.
/>
0:00
7:22 PM - 15 Sep 2019
Not liking this east trend that I’m seeing tonight. Western parts of the viewing area that need the most rain might not get anything.
A decent MCS has developed and has maintained its intensity last few hours. Will need to see if this develops into a low-level circulation overnight into the morning as recent models runs have been indicating.
While the NAM not the best model to use for tropical development, I do give the NAM more credit once an LLC has formed in a tropical system as it can at times out perform other global and mesoscale models. NAM was one of the better models the last 3 days of Harvey moving onshore and predicting the widespread 30"+ over the region. It was laughable to see the rainfall outputs during that time but soon realized it was no laughing matter. Model consistency will be telling during the next few runs, and the overall structure by tomorrow.
While the NAM not the best model to use for tropical development, I do give the NAM more credit once an LLC has formed in a tropical system as it can at times out perform other global and mesoscale models. NAM was one of the better models the last 3 days of Harvey moving onshore and predicting the widespread 30"+ over the region. It was laughable to see the rainfall outputs during that time but soon realized it was no laughing matter. Model consistency will be telling during the next few runs, and the overall structure by tomorrow.
Blake
Boomer Sooner
Boomer Sooner
00z Euro is absurd. Frustrating to see another huge model difference between what the Euro and the GFS show just days out. These two have been at disagreement with each other all summer it seems. Concerning to see meso models and Euro closely mirroring each other. Sure hope this isn't the trend into tomorrow.
Blake
Boomer Sooner
Boomer Sooner
The Euro trend has indeed become highly disturbing. 30 inch totals now predicted for Houston and College Station areas.Belmer wrote: ↑Mon Sep 16, 2019 2:22 am 00z Euro is absurd. Frustrating to see another huge model difference between what the Euro and the GFS show just days out. These two have been at disagreement with each other all summer it seems. Concerning to see meso models and Euro closely mirroring each other. Sure hope this isn't the trend into tomorrow.
https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/te ... 0300z.html
GFS predicts literally 1/10 of the Euro total precip.
Canadian has a foot of rain from Victoria to Houston to Navasota.
Last edited by DoctorMu on Mon Sep 16, 2019 2:38 am, edited 1 time in total.
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stormlover
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I think we could see if shift west little bit one more time
It's very concerning to see the Euro match the CMC now with rainfall potential.
This is turning into one of those 'be careful what you wish for.'
Some of the qpf charts are a little troubling...
Some of the qpf charts are a little troubling...
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Andrew
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I am not too worried about tropical development right now. Mid and low-level vorticity are not well aligned and most models indicate they won't vertically stack until close to landfall. Maybe a weak TD could form during landfall, but either way, the results will be the same for rain showers. What is interesting about the ECMWF and CMC is the LLJ that forms from the subtropical low that crosses the state. A 40-60kt southerly LLJ over the region would be a typical setup for an MCS (or training in general). The track of the upper level low will be key here and if the parameters come together it will likely be a "nowcast" setup. I'm keeping an eye on the progression of models but I would like to see a couple more model runs before really raising the alarm. Either way, it's not often you see 3.5 inches of PWAT on the ECMWF.
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srainhoutx
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The overnight QPF amounts increased further throughout the next 7 Days and the WPC has a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall outlooked for Tuesday along the Coastal tier of Counties shifting inland for Wednesday to include portions of Metro Houston. HGX in coordination with the WPC is forecasting 6 to 9 inches of rain with isolated totals of 12 inches. Remember these totals are spread out over the next 3 to 5 days and there remains a lot of uncertainty. The ensembles are suggesting a strong signal of lowering pressures and heavy training rainfall.
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
432 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2019
Day 1
Valid 12Z Mon Sep 16 2019 - 12Z Tue Sep 17 2019
...A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXISTS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTAL PLAINS...
...TX/LA coasts...
A tropical disturbance is moving parallel to, but offshore, the LA
coast at this time. Model guidance takes it generally westward,
nearing the Middle and Upper TX coasts by Tuesday morning. Inflow
at 850 hPa around the system is forecast to be 20-30 kts, roughly
50% above the 850-400 hPa mean wind. Precipitable water values of
2-2.25" should overspread the region from east to west. ML CAPE
around the system is 1500-2500 J/kg. The ingredients are there
for heavy rainfall -- the question is how far into LA the
instability gradient invades this morning and for portions of the
TX coast tonight/Tuesday morning. This morning, issues are
possible across southeast LA, south of Lake Pontchartrain -- this
portion of the Marginal Risk is new to this issuance and was
collaborated with LIX/the Slidell LA forecast office. Late
tonight into early Tuesday morning, the threat shifts to the
Middle and Upper TX coast. Much of the region has been dry
lately, so initial rainfall should be welcome. However, this
environment could support 3" an hour rain totals should cells
move/form ashore and merge or train, which would be problematic
outside of wetlands, with urban areas the most sensitive.
Roth
Day 2
Valid 12Z Tue Sep 17 2019 - 12Z Wed Sep 18 2019
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER TEXAS COAST...
...Texas Coast...
A disturbance in the northern Gulf of Mexico will attempt to
organize, at least subtly, as it moves westward onto the upper
Texas Coast. There remains considerable disagreement into how
organized this system will become, and how far south it will
advect, but the general trend has been for an uptick in model QPF,
especially beyond this day 2 period. On Tuesday and Tuesday night,
the 500mb trough and associated vort lobe will move westward to be
along the TX coast late in the period, while the 850-700mb low
lifts slowly northward. The decreasing spatial distance between
these features should lead to some strengthening, while the
subsequent intensifying inflow will drive higher PWAT air onshore
in conjunction with WAA/MLCape development. PWATs nearing 2.25"
and MLCape rising to above 1000 J/kg will support increasing
coverage of convective rain bands, some of which may train onto
the central and upper Texas Coast. The most clustered model signal
is for the heaviest rainfall in this area, and while total QPF on
day 2 should be generally 1-3" along the immediate coast where
frictional convergence will enhance ascent, rain rates may at
times touch 2"/hr which could lead to isolated flash flooding. The
SLGT risk has been expanded very slightly northeast to encompass
the Houston area for its more sensitive FFG, with a MRGL risk
extending inland and enclosing the SLGT risk area.
...Pacific Northwest...
A short duration atmospheric river will move onshore the Pacific
Northwest Tuesday, bringing a round of heavy rainfall from coastal
areas of northwest California north through Vancouver Island. This
will be associated with a deep northern stream upper trough
digging southeast from the Gulf of Alaska and an attendant cold
front. PWATs may briefly exceed 1.25", especially along the Oregon
Coast, which is as much as 2 standard deviations above the
climatological mean for mid-September. Despite the expected lack
of instability, robust moisture transport on an 850mb jet
approaching 50 kts will impinge orthogonally into the Coastal
Ranges, and ECENS rainfall probabilities show a high risk for more
than 1", and even low-end probabilities for 3" in the terrain,
where isolated higher amounts are likely in the favored W/SW
upslope regions. In general, this rainfall could be more
beneficial than hazardous due to antecedent dry conditions, but
rain rates potentially exceeding 0.5"/hr could produce isolated
flash flooding, especially in any sensitive terrain or along burn
scars, and the MRGL risk was left unchanged from previous.
...Minnesota...
Convection expected to blossom within a narrow warm sector
associated with a frontal system late Tuesday night into
Wednesday. This system will advect E/NE beneath a potent shortwave
ejecting from the Northwest, with deep SW flow ahead of this
feature drawing moisture and instability northward. PWATs are
forecast to climb to/above 1.75 inches, 2-3 standard deviations
above the climo mean, and near daily highs for September 18th.
Although most of the activity is expected well after diurnal
heating, a robust LLJ approaching 50 kts will drive strong WAA and
increasing MUCape to fuel thunderstorms after 00Z/18 across the
Upper Midwest. In addition to the synoptic ascent through height
falls ahead of the shortwave, the 850mb LLJ is progged to be more
than twice the cloud layer mean wind, suggesting intense low-level
omega to further drive lift. While storm motions are likely to be
rapid to the northeast noted by 0-6km mean wind forecasts of 20-30
kts, deep layer unidirectional shear along the boundary supports
training potential with rain rates becoming more efficient as warm
cloud depths rise towards 13kft. Across this region, 3-hr FFG is
generally 1.5-2.5", so where training of the heaviest rain rates
can occur, flash flooding will be possible, and have added a MRGL
risk after coordination with DLH/MPX focused in the 18/00Z-12Z
timeframe before the LLJ veers to reduce the moisture confluence.
Weiss
Day 3
Valid 12Z Wed Sep 18 2019 - 12Z Thu Sep 19 2019
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER TEXAS COAST...
An area of low pressure across the northern Gulf of Mexico will
attempt to organize Wednesday along the TX coast, bringing
increasing chances for heavy rainfall across the area. The
guidance continues to show a wide variation in solutions, but the
trend this morning has been for an increase and shift eastward in
QPF in the global consensus. Although the environment looks
extremely favorable for heavy rain with PWATs over 2.25" and
MUCape pushing 2000 J/kg, placing the axis of heaviest QPF remains
difficult. Additionally, some of these enhanced rainfall totals
noted in recent guidance could be overdone and based on a more
developed system, which may not come to fruition if the mid-level
and low-level centers cannot congeal.
However, whether the system develops or not, heavy rainfall is
looking increasingly likely along the coast due to robust
advection of tropical moisture into Texas as the mid-level trough
shifts inland. In this favorable thermodynamic environment, ascent
will gradually intensify beneath increasing diffluence aloft and
forced low-level ascent due to frictional convergence along the
land-sea interface and through weak 0-6km mean flow being impinged
upon by 850mb winds 2-3 times stronger. As PWATs and instability
climb, rainfall rates will intensify and may reach 2"/hr at times,
with training likely through strong moisture confluence and
unidirectional shear. Additionally, the system, regardless of
organization, will likely move very slowly as it becomes trapped
beneath a ridge with +1 to +2 mid-level height anomalies which
will only enhance the temporal duration of heavy rainfall.
The recent ECENS rainfall probabilities suggest a high risk for
1-3" in 24-hrs, with low-end probabilities for 5" or more. A SLGT
risk has been added for much of the central and upper Texas coast,
with a MRGL risk extending as far west as the Balcones Escarpment
and I-35 corridor, but the greatest risk for heavy rain does
appear to be focusing nearer the coast. After discussion with the
local WFOs (CRP/EWX/HGX) have opted to cap the risk at SLGT for
now due to uncertainty, but it is possible, if not likely, that
higher risks will be needed with later updates, especially if this
wetter trend continues.
Weiss
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
432 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2019
Day 1
Valid 12Z Mon Sep 16 2019 - 12Z Tue Sep 17 2019
...A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXISTS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTAL PLAINS...
...TX/LA coasts...
A tropical disturbance is moving parallel to, but offshore, the LA
coast at this time. Model guidance takes it generally westward,
nearing the Middle and Upper TX coasts by Tuesday morning. Inflow
at 850 hPa around the system is forecast to be 20-30 kts, roughly
50% above the 850-400 hPa mean wind. Precipitable water values of
2-2.25" should overspread the region from east to west. ML CAPE
around the system is 1500-2500 J/kg. The ingredients are there
for heavy rainfall -- the question is how far into LA the
instability gradient invades this morning and for portions of the
TX coast tonight/Tuesday morning. This morning, issues are
possible across southeast LA, south of Lake Pontchartrain -- this
portion of the Marginal Risk is new to this issuance and was
collaborated with LIX/the Slidell LA forecast office. Late
tonight into early Tuesday morning, the threat shifts to the
Middle and Upper TX coast. Much of the region has been dry
lately, so initial rainfall should be welcome. However, this
environment could support 3" an hour rain totals should cells
move/form ashore and merge or train, which would be problematic
outside of wetlands, with urban areas the most sensitive.
Roth
Day 2
Valid 12Z Tue Sep 17 2019 - 12Z Wed Sep 18 2019
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER TEXAS COAST...
...Texas Coast...
A disturbance in the northern Gulf of Mexico will attempt to
organize, at least subtly, as it moves westward onto the upper
Texas Coast. There remains considerable disagreement into how
organized this system will become, and how far south it will
advect, but the general trend has been for an uptick in model QPF,
especially beyond this day 2 period. On Tuesday and Tuesday night,
the 500mb trough and associated vort lobe will move westward to be
along the TX coast late in the period, while the 850-700mb low
lifts slowly northward. The decreasing spatial distance between
these features should lead to some strengthening, while the
subsequent intensifying inflow will drive higher PWAT air onshore
in conjunction with WAA/MLCape development. PWATs nearing 2.25"
and MLCape rising to above 1000 J/kg will support increasing
coverage of convective rain bands, some of which may train onto
the central and upper Texas Coast. The most clustered model signal
is for the heaviest rainfall in this area, and while total QPF on
day 2 should be generally 1-3" along the immediate coast where
frictional convergence will enhance ascent, rain rates may at
times touch 2"/hr which could lead to isolated flash flooding. The
SLGT risk has been expanded very slightly northeast to encompass
the Houston area for its more sensitive FFG, with a MRGL risk
extending inland and enclosing the SLGT risk area.
...Pacific Northwest...
A short duration atmospheric river will move onshore the Pacific
Northwest Tuesday, bringing a round of heavy rainfall from coastal
areas of northwest California north through Vancouver Island. This
will be associated with a deep northern stream upper trough
digging southeast from the Gulf of Alaska and an attendant cold
front. PWATs may briefly exceed 1.25", especially along the Oregon
Coast, which is as much as 2 standard deviations above the
climatological mean for mid-September. Despite the expected lack
of instability, robust moisture transport on an 850mb jet
approaching 50 kts will impinge orthogonally into the Coastal
Ranges, and ECENS rainfall probabilities show a high risk for more
than 1", and even low-end probabilities for 3" in the terrain,
where isolated higher amounts are likely in the favored W/SW
upslope regions. In general, this rainfall could be more
beneficial than hazardous due to antecedent dry conditions, but
rain rates potentially exceeding 0.5"/hr could produce isolated
flash flooding, especially in any sensitive terrain or along burn
scars, and the MRGL risk was left unchanged from previous.
...Minnesota...
Convection expected to blossom within a narrow warm sector
associated with a frontal system late Tuesday night into
Wednesday. This system will advect E/NE beneath a potent shortwave
ejecting from the Northwest, with deep SW flow ahead of this
feature drawing moisture and instability northward. PWATs are
forecast to climb to/above 1.75 inches, 2-3 standard deviations
above the climo mean, and near daily highs for September 18th.
Although most of the activity is expected well after diurnal
heating, a robust LLJ approaching 50 kts will drive strong WAA and
increasing MUCape to fuel thunderstorms after 00Z/18 across the
Upper Midwest. In addition to the synoptic ascent through height
falls ahead of the shortwave, the 850mb LLJ is progged to be more
than twice the cloud layer mean wind, suggesting intense low-level
omega to further drive lift. While storm motions are likely to be
rapid to the northeast noted by 0-6km mean wind forecasts of 20-30
kts, deep layer unidirectional shear along the boundary supports
training potential with rain rates becoming more efficient as warm
cloud depths rise towards 13kft. Across this region, 3-hr FFG is
generally 1.5-2.5", so where training of the heaviest rain rates
can occur, flash flooding will be possible, and have added a MRGL
risk after coordination with DLH/MPX focused in the 18/00Z-12Z
timeframe before the LLJ veers to reduce the moisture confluence.
Weiss
Day 3
Valid 12Z Wed Sep 18 2019 - 12Z Thu Sep 19 2019
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER TEXAS COAST...
An area of low pressure across the northern Gulf of Mexico will
attempt to organize Wednesday along the TX coast, bringing
increasing chances for heavy rainfall across the area. The
guidance continues to show a wide variation in solutions, but the
trend this morning has been for an increase and shift eastward in
QPF in the global consensus. Although the environment looks
extremely favorable for heavy rain with PWATs over 2.25" and
MUCape pushing 2000 J/kg, placing the axis of heaviest QPF remains
difficult. Additionally, some of these enhanced rainfall totals
noted in recent guidance could be overdone and based on a more
developed system, which may not come to fruition if the mid-level
and low-level centers cannot congeal.
However, whether the system develops or not, heavy rainfall is
looking increasingly likely along the coast due to robust
advection of tropical moisture into Texas as the mid-level trough
shifts inland. In this favorable thermodynamic environment, ascent
will gradually intensify beneath increasing diffluence aloft and
forced low-level ascent due to frictional convergence along the
land-sea interface and through weak 0-6km mean flow being impinged
upon by 850mb winds 2-3 times stronger. As PWATs and instability
climb, rainfall rates will intensify and may reach 2"/hr at times,
with training likely through strong moisture confluence and
unidirectional shear. Additionally, the system, regardless of
organization, will likely move very slowly as it becomes trapped
beneath a ridge with +1 to +2 mid-level height anomalies which
will only enhance the temporal duration of heavy rainfall.
The recent ECENS rainfall probabilities suggest a high risk for
1-3" in 24-hrs, with low-end probabilities for 5" or more. A SLGT
risk has been added for much of the central and upper Texas coast,
with a MRGL risk extending as far west as the Balcones Escarpment
and I-35 corridor, but the greatest risk for heavy rain does
appear to be focusing nearer the coast. After discussion with the
local WFOs (CRP/EWX/HGX) have opted to cap the risk at SLGT for
now due to uncertainty, but it is possible, if not likely, that
higher risks will be needed with later updates, especially if this
wetter trend continues.
Weiss
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Is it possible this system still moves east a bit coming onshore near Hou/Boliver? Im in Beaumont and really REALLY need some rain. If it would come onshore just a tad east, I can get in on some of that liquid gold.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)