September 2019 - Warm End of September

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Cromagnum
Posts: 1111
Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2011 10:42 pm
Contact:

Re: September 2019 - Labor Day Weekend/Tracking Hurricane Dorian

Post by Cromagnum » Thu Aug 29, 2019 8:53 am

Way too early to make a call on recurve back to sea potential. The GFS is underdoing the ridging to expose an early weakness while other models like the EURO and ICON see a stronger ridge. Still gonna be a battle for a couple more days sadly.

User avatar
brooksgarner
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 226
Joined: Tue Jun 04, 2013 2:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

Re: September 2019 - Labor Day Weekend/Tracking Hurricane Dorian

Post by brooksgarner » Thu Aug 29, 2019 9:56 am

This hurricane reminds me of the 2004 season over on the east coast of FL. Vero got slammed by Frances and Jeanne! Watching from Denver ...
Broadcast Met
http://BrooksGarner.com
http://twitter.com/BrooksWeather
  • '17 Harvey
  • '12 Sandy (P3 Orion)
  • '91 Bob
  • '85 Gloria

Scott747
Posts: 1181
Joined: Tue Feb 23, 2010 9:56 am
Location: Freeport/Surfside Beach
Contact:

Re: September 2019 - Labor Day Weekend/Tracking Hurricane Dorian

Post by Scott747 » Thu Aug 29, 2019 2:30 pm

Overall the model runs have started zeroing in on a lessening threat to the ngom the last 24 hrs.

There were a few hints though to not fully take the ngom out of play. Operational 12z Ukie takes Dorian across fla and to the ne gulf along with the HWRF and a small cluster of the Euro ensembles.

Otherwise most all the globals and ensembles show the main threat away from the gulf.

cperk
Posts: 553
Joined: Sun Aug 19, 2012 11:09 am
Location: Richmond
Contact:

Re: September 2019 - Labor Day Weekend/Tracking Hurricane Dorian

Post by cperk » Thu Aug 29, 2019 4:14 pm

A just saw a OCM on MSNBC and he indicated that they really don't know where Dorian will make landfall yet or if it will at all.The models are giving them fits 3 days out and that's a little scary.No watches or warnings have been issued yet nor have any evacuations.

User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19279
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Contact:

Re: September 2019 - Labor Day Weekend/Tracking Hurricane Dorian

Post by srainhoutx » Thu Aug 29, 2019 4:40 pm

I really couldn't care less what media and WxTwitter/social media has to say about Dorian. These days there is always an agenda to push it seems. The older I get, the more I rely on my own intuition regarding sensible weather forecasts.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity

Scott747
Posts: 1181
Joined: Tue Feb 23, 2010 9:56 am
Location: Freeport/Surfside Beach
Contact:

Re: September 2019 - Labor Day Weekend/Tracking Hurricane Dorian

Post by Scott747 » Thu Aug 29, 2019 4:44 pm

Small trend to the w with the early suite of 18z runs.

Scott747
Posts: 1181
Joined: Tue Feb 23, 2010 9:56 am
Location: Freeport/Surfside Beach
Contact:

Re: September 2019 - Labor Day Weekend/Tracking Hurricane Dorian

Post by Scott747 » Thu Aug 29, 2019 4:50 pm

I hear ya about the media. Especially the national networks. I threw it on CNN yesterday curious how they were covering it and they had a panel with talking points which were focused on the impending impact on Puerto Rico by a major hurricane.

Problem was Dorian was already pulling away from the island after missing it to the e.

User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19279
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Contact:

Re: September 2019 - Labor Day Weekend/Tracking Hurricane Dorian

Post by srainhoutx » Thu Aug 29, 2019 4:56 pm

One guy I do follow always provides important historical facts.

Philip Klotzbach
@philklotzbach
September continental US #hurricane landfall locations since 1851. 39 out of the 121 September continental US hurricane landfalls have been in Florida. #HurricaneDorian
Attachments
EDK8a58U4AMaqsE.png
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity

User avatar
Texaspirate11
Posts: 1124
Joined: Tue Dec 31, 2013 12:24 am
Contact:

Re: September 2019 - Labor Day Weekend/Tracking Hurricane Dorian

Post by Texaspirate11 » Thu Aug 29, 2019 5:15 pm

All I gotta hear is "not texas" and I'm good. Although I love the tracking part.
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant

Cpv17
Posts: 1595
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 12:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

Re: September 2019 - Labor Day Weekend/Tracking Hurricane Dorian

Post by Cpv17 » Thu Aug 29, 2019 5:53 pm

Texaspirate11 wrote:
Thu Aug 29, 2019 5:15 pm
All I gotta hear is "not texas" and I'm good. Although I love the tracking part.
They are really fun track even though I lose out on sleep staying up late for the 0z runs lol it’s worth it.

Post Reply