Wx Infinity Forums

GBinGrimes wrote: ↑Tue Aug 20, 2019 6:31 am There is no meteorological expertise within my brain that could produce a prediction with any merit. But, as a life long resident of this part of Texas, my gut "feeling" is that the really hot summer temps started way too late and the warmth will linger into fall. Not oppressively hot, just not that crisp fall feeling for a while.

What I have noticed these past few "winters" is that the cold fronts that blast through and produce clear blue skies and brisk temps for a few days have all but disappeared. All I remember is gray and damp from late fall into early spring for several years. I'm hopeful for some true blue northers this winter, just not of the pipe busting ferocity.

wxdude wrote: ↑Tue Aug 20, 2019 11:04 am It looks like models are trying to bring a weak front down the country end of August or early September. I can only hope!

Belmer wrote: ↑Wed Aug 21, 2019 7:38 am

wxdude wrote: ↑Tue Aug 20, 2019 11:04 am It looks like models are trying to bring a weak front down the country end of August or early September. I can only hope!

May not be that 'weak'. Almost every reliable model has a significant trough for 2/3 of the country come near the end of August heading into Labor Day Weekend. Not only is there model support for such a cool down, but many of those said models keep the well below average temperatures for at least 3-5 days rather just a one or two day cool down. This would be thanks in part to a large ridge that looks to set up in the north central Atlantic. These computer runs have been fairly consistent day-to-day so confidence is increasing as we close summer (meteorologically speaking) and work our way into Fall.

How big of a cool down could we be looking at? If the overnight/morning runs are to be believed, we could be looking at high temperatures potentially in the upper 70s to low 80s with lows in the mid to upper 50s... especially north of I-10. Below are snapshots of temperature anomalies as we close out August.

06z GFS
06z GFS.png


00z GEFS
GEFS.png


06z old GFS (little slower but shows the below temp anomalies in the Central Plains and Rockies)
06z old GFS.png


00z CMC
00z CMC.png


00z Euro
EPS.png

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 25, 2019 9:21 am Nope looks like its staying up north

Texaspirate11 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 03, 2019 8:07 pm Good let's shut down the cane season