EARLY INPUT FOR FALL WEATHER

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snowman65
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EARLY INPUT FOR FALL WEATHER

Post by snowman65 » Mon Aug 19, 2019 3:21 pm

Anyone care to take a stab at what we may expect between now through October as far as temps go? above normal, normal, below normal...etc....thanks!

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GBinGrimes
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Re: EARLY INPUT FOR FALL WEATHER

Post by GBinGrimes » Tue Aug 20, 2019 5:31 am

There is no meteorological expertise within my brain that could produce a prediction with any merit. But, as a life long resident of this part of Texas, my gut "feeling" is that the really hot summer temps started way too late and the warmth will linger into fall. Not oppressively hot, just not that crisp fall feeling for a while.

What I have noticed these past few "winters" is that the cold fronts that blast through and produce clear blue skies and brisk temps for a few days have all but disappeared. All I remember is gray and damp from late fall into early spring for several years. I'm hopeful for some true blue northers this winter, just not of the pipe busting ferocity.

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Re: EARLY INPUT FOR FALL WEATHER

Post by BlueJay » Tue Aug 20, 2019 9:07 am

GBinGrimes wrote:
Tue Aug 20, 2019 5:31 am
There is no meteorological expertise within my brain that could produce a prediction with any merit. But, as a life long resident of this part of Texas, my gut "feeling" is that the really hot summer temps started way too late and the warmth will linger into fall. Not oppressively hot, just not that crisp fall feeling for a while.

What I have noticed these past few "winters" is that the cold fronts that blast through and produce clear blue skies and brisk temps for a few days have all but disappeared. All I remember is gray and damp from late fall into early spring for several years. I'm hopeful for some true blue northers this winter, just not of the pipe busting ferocity.
I concur!

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Re: EARLY INPUT FOR FALL WEATHER

Post by wxdude » Tue Aug 20, 2019 10:04 am

It looks like models are trying to bring a weak front down the country end of August or early September. I can only hope!

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Re: EARLY INPUT FOR FALL WEATHER

Post by Belmer » Wed Aug 21, 2019 6:38 am

wxdude wrote:
Tue Aug 20, 2019 10:04 am
It looks like models are trying to bring a weak front down the country end of August or early September. I can only hope!
May not be that 'weak'. Almost every reliable model has a significant trough for 2/3 of the country come near the end of August heading into Labor Day Weekend. Not only is there model support for such a cool down, but many of those said models keep the well below average temperatures for at least 3-5 days rather just a one or two day cool down. This would be thanks in part to a large ridge that looks to set up in the north central Atlantic. These computer runs have been fairly consistent day-to-day so confidence is increasing as we close summer (meteorologically speaking) and work our way into Fall.

How big of a cool down could we be looking at? If the overnight/morning runs are to be believed, we could be looking at high temperatures potentially in the upper 70s to low 80s with lows in the mid to upper 50s... especially north of I-10. Below are snapshots of temperature anomalies as we close out August.

06z GFS
06z GFS.png
06z GFS

00z GEFS
GEFS.png
00z GEFS

06z old GFS (little slower but shows the below temp anomalies in the Central Plains and Rockies)
06z old GFS.png
06z old GFS

00z CMC
00z CMC.png
00z CMC

00z Euro
EPS.png
00z EPS
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Re: EARLY INPUT FOR FALL WEATHER

Post by Texaspirate11 » Wed Aug 21, 2019 9:06 am

Can we shut down hurricane season yet?
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Re: EARLY INPUT FOR FALL WEATHER

Post by MontgomeryCoWx » Wed Aug 21, 2019 9:30 am

Belmer wrote:
Wed Aug 21, 2019 6:38 am
wxdude wrote:
Tue Aug 20, 2019 10:04 am
It looks like models are trying to bring a weak front down the country end of August or early September. I can only hope!
May not be that 'weak'. Almost every reliable model has a significant trough for 2/3 of the country come near the end of August heading into Labor Day Weekend. Not only is there model support for such a cool down, but many of those said models keep the well below average temperatures for at least 3-5 days rather just a one or two day cool down. This would be thanks in part to a large ridge that looks to set up in the north central Atlantic. These computer runs have been fairly consistent day-to-day so confidence is increasing as we close summer (meteorologically speaking) and work our way into Fall.

How big of a cool down could we be looking at? If the overnight/morning runs are to be believed, we could be looking at high temperatures potentially in the upper 70s to low 80s with lows in the mid to upper 50s... especially north of I-10. Below are snapshots of temperature anomalies as we close out August.

06z GFS
06z GFS.png


00z GEFS
GEFS.png


06z old GFS (little slower but shows the below temp anomalies in the Central Plains and Rockies)
06z old GFS.png


00z CMC
00z CMC.png


00z Euro
EPS.png
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Re: EARLY INPUT FOR FALL WEATHER

Post by snowman65 » Wed Aug 21, 2019 10:11 am

I will be in Irving for Labor Day weekend....hopefully it would be even cooler there!!!

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Re: EARLY INPUT FOR FALL WEATHER

Post by cperk » Thu Aug 22, 2019 3:40 pm

Man the GOM has some serious storms flaring up if i did'nt know better i would think there's a storm forming,but i know better. :)

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Re: EARLY INPUT FOR FALL WEATHER

Post by snowman65 » Sun Aug 25, 2019 8:01 am

is the cool front still on track for Labor Day weekend?

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