Hurricane season

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Kingwood36
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Boy it sure has been quiet..think it will stay that way or do you think the tropics will wake up in the next couple weeks?
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jasons2k
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Kingwood36 wrote: Tue Aug 06, 2019 1:17 pm Boy it sure has been quiet..think it will stay that way or do you think the tropics will wake up in the next couple weeks?
They will. Having spells of no activity in July and stretching well into August is nothing unusual. Expect activity to ramp-up as we get closer to the end of August and into September.
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srainhoutx
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Keep an eye on the Western Pacific tropical activity. The seasonal Atmospheric Pattern looks to shift East over the next 2 weeks toward the Central/Eastern Pacific. That may well mean that a pattern more conducive for Tropical mischief in our part of the World presents itself around the end of August and early September. Climatology favors that period and the atmospheric indicators/pattern may be favorable as well. It is after all the time when all eyes turn to the Tropics. We will see.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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TexasBreeze
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Eventually this upper ridge that will park over us for awhile will move away or weaken. This is a quiet period in the tropics. They may awaken at a similar time when the ridge moves away or weakens so late this month or September could potentially be more interesting.
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sambucol
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Don’t let your guard down. August and September have borne many powerful hurricanes.
Scott747
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Hmm.. Has somebody been looking at the models?

Seriously though I've noticed the last few days on the very long range that there has been a hint of something around the YP. Sure enough the latest few runs at show something slowly organizing and moving generally towards the western gulf. And it's a very large system in terms of coverage, not strength. Years past it would be easy to dismiss it but since the new GFS doesn't spin up everything with a pulse it might be something to begin keeping an eye on.
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Ptarmigan
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Even the most active season have quiet periods.
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srainhoutx
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srainhoutx wrote: Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:27 am Keep an eye on the Western Pacific tropical activity. The seasonal Atmospheric Pattern looks to shift East over the next 2 weeks toward the Central/Eastern Pacific. That may well mean that a pattern more conducive for Tropical mischief in our part of the World presents itself around the end of August and early September. Climatology favors that period and the atmospheric indicators/pattern may be favorable as well. It is after all the time when all eyes turn to the Tropics. We will see.
The Hemispheric/Atmospheric Pattern continues to indicate the possibility of more favorable conditions developing in the Western Atlantic Basin and likely Atlantic Basin Wide as we start the second half of August. The MJO graphic suggests that the conditions that have proven favorable in the Western Pacific will shift East in time and could begin to impact our part of the World just beyond August 15th. The MJO graphic suggests lowering pressures. The morning Updated Convectively Couple Kelvin Wave forecast (rising air and increased tropical thunderstorm development) also suggests that the atmospheric features we look to for clues or hints are coming together for some increased potential of tropical development. El Nino officially died and transitioned to a Neutral State this week and as some may have seen, NOAA increased their possibilities for an above average Hurricane Season. It's that time of year folks.
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08102019 Hurricane Climo Peak peakofseason.gif
08102019 MJO twc_globe_mjo_vp200.png
08102019 CCKW twc_mjoCCKW_vp200.png
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Scott747
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18z GFS might get a little notice here.,..
Cpv17
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Scott747 wrote: Mon Aug 12, 2019 6:30 pm 18z GFS might get a little notice here.,..
Absolutely.
Kingwood36
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Cpv17 wrote: Mon Aug 12, 2019 6:57 pm
Scott747 wrote: Mon Aug 12, 2019 6:30 pm 18z GFS might get a little notice here.,..
Absolutely.
Its 2 weeks out tho..
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Kingwood36 wrote: Mon Aug 12, 2019 8:57 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Mon Aug 12, 2019 6:57 pm
Scott747 wrote: Mon Aug 12, 2019 6:30 pm 18z GFS might get a little notice here.,..
Absolutely.
Its 2 weeks out tho..
True, but according to climatology late August is when things really begin to ramp up in the tropics. That’s also when Harvey hit us. It’s just something to keep an eye on for now. Definitely nothing to freak out about.
Scott747
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Scott747 wrote: Wed Aug 07, 2019 8:57 pm Hmm.. Has somebody been looking at the models?

Seriously though I've noticed the last few days on the very long range that there has been a hint of something around the YP. Sure enough the latest few runs at show something slowly organizing and moving generally towards the western gulf. And it's a very large system in terms of coverage, not strength. Years past it would be easy to dismiss it but since the new GFS doesn't spin up everything with a pulse it might be something to begin keeping an eye on.
Just wanted to circle back to this...

While nothing eventually fully organized out of this, it is still impressive how well the early stages of the modeling worked out for being at the extreme end of the long range.

And the euro and GFS hints at that we might not be done with this system.
Cpv17
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Invest 99L needs to be watched. The Bermuda high looks to be pretty stout to its north preventing it from recurving out to sea. Decent chance this will make it into the Gulf.
Cpv17
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TD5 has now been upgraded to Tropical Storm Dorian.

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srainhoutx
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Tropical activity continues as the first week of September ends. I am closely watching 94L way out in the Eastern Atlantic. Future Humberto may well be a long tracker and could end up in the Eastern Caribbean Sea in about 10 days. With no strong cold fronts on the horizon for Texas and the Gulf Coast, it serves as a reminder that late September can bring threats of a tropical system. Rita taught us that in 2005 and coincidentally Jerry is the next name after Humberto.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Cpv17
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srainhoutx wrote: Fri Sep 06, 2019 7:15 am Tropical activity continues as the first week of September ends. I am closely watching 94L way out in the Eastern Atlantic. Future Humberto may well be a long tracker and could end up in the Eastern Caribbean Sea in about 10 days. With no strong cold fronts on the horizon for Texas and the Gulf Coast, it serves as a reminder that late September can bring threats of a tropical system. Rita taught us that in 2005 and coincidentally Jerry is the next name after Humberto.
I was literally just about to post something very similar to this lol as long as there’s no troughs/fronts coming our way, hurricane season is still open for us.
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srainhoutx
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Once again I am seeing some indications of Hemispheric Patterns that could bring favorable conditions to the Tropical Atlantic in about 10 days or so and may well bring an active period as September ends and October begins. Two charts I look to suggest lower pressures as well as rising air and thus better conditions for tropical thunderstorms to develop with a Convectively Couple Kelvin Wave arriving around September 18th. Now that dust from Africa is no longer a problem and warmer sea surface temperatures are present across the Gulf, Caribbean and Main Development Region of the Atlantic, a burst of tropical activity could be in the cards. We will see.
Attachments
09082019 TWC twc_globe_mjo_vp200.png
09082019 CCKW twc_mjoCCKW_vp200.png
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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