Hurricane season

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Kingwood36
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Re: Hurricane season

Post by Kingwood36 » Mon Aug 12, 2019 7:57 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Mon Aug 12, 2019 5:57 pm
Scott747 wrote:
Mon Aug 12, 2019 5:30 pm
18z GFS might get a little notice here.,..
Absolutely.
Its 2 weeks out tho..

Cpv17
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Re: Hurricane season

Post by Cpv17 » Mon Aug 12, 2019 8:19 pm

Kingwood36 wrote:
Mon Aug 12, 2019 7:57 pm
Cpv17 wrote:
Mon Aug 12, 2019 5:57 pm
Scott747 wrote:
Mon Aug 12, 2019 5:30 pm
18z GFS might get a little notice here.,..
Absolutely.
Its 2 weeks out tho..
True, but according to climatology late August is when things really begin to ramp up in the tropics. That’s also when Harvey hit us. It’s just something to keep an eye on for now. Definitely nothing to freak out about.

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Re: Hurricane season

Post by Scott747 » Fri Aug 23, 2019 5:32 pm

Scott747 wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 7:57 pm
Hmm.. Has somebody been looking at the models?

Seriously though I've noticed the last few days on the very long range that there has been a hint of something around the YP. Sure enough the latest few runs at show something slowly organizing and moving generally towards the western gulf. And it's a very large system in terms of coverage, not strength. Years past it would be easy to dismiss it but since the new GFS doesn't spin up everything with a pulse it might be something to begin keeping an eye on.
Just wanted to circle back to this...

While nothing eventually fully organized out of this, it is still impressive how well the early stages of the modeling worked out for being at the extreme end of the long range.

And the euro and GFS hints at that we might not be done with this system.

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Re: Hurricane season

Post by Cpv17 » Fri Aug 23, 2019 5:56 pm

Invest 99L needs to be watched. The Bermuda high looks to be pretty stout to its north preventing it from recurving out to sea. Decent chance this will make it into the Gulf.

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Re: Hurricane season

Post by Cpv17 » Sat Aug 24, 2019 3:22 pm

TD5 has now been upgraded to Tropical Storm Dorian.

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srainhoutx
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Re: Hurricane season

Post by srainhoutx » Fri Sep 06, 2019 6:15 am

Tropical activity continues as the first week of September ends. I am closely watching 94L way out in the Eastern Atlantic. Future Humberto may well be a long tracker and could end up in the Eastern Caribbean Sea in about 10 days. With no strong cold fronts on the horizon for Texas and the Gulf Coast, it serves as a reminder that late September can bring threats of a tropical system. Rita taught us that in 2005 and coincidentally Jerry is the next name after Humberto.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: Hurricane season

Post by Cpv17 » Fri Sep 06, 2019 7:03 am

srainhoutx wrote:
Fri Sep 06, 2019 6:15 am
Tropical activity continues as the first week of September ends. I am closely watching 94L way out in the Eastern Atlantic. Future Humberto may well be a long tracker and could end up in the Eastern Caribbean Sea in about 10 days. With no strong cold fronts on the horizon for Texas and the Gulf Coast, it serves as a reminder that late September can bring threats of a tropical system. Rita taught us that in 2005 and coincidentally Jerry is the next name after Humberto.
I was literally just about to post something very similar to this lol as long as there’s no troughs/fronts coming our way, hurricane season is still open for us.

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srainhoutx
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Re: Hurricane season

Post by srainhoutx » Sun Sep 08, 2019 7:08 am

Once again I am seeing some indications of Hemispheric Patterns that could bring favorable conditions to the Tropical Atlantic in about 10 days or so and may well bring an active period as September ends and October begins. Two charts I look to suggest lower pressures as well as rising air and thus better conditions for tropical thunderstorms to develop with a Convectively Couple Kelvin Wave arriving around September 18th. Now that dust from Africa is no longer a problem and warmer sea surface temperatures are present across the Gulf, Caribbean and Main Development Region of the Atlantic, a burst of tropical activity could be in the cards. We will see.
Attachments
09082019 TWC twc_globe_mjo_vp200.png
09082019 CCKW twc_mjoCCKW_vp200.png
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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