Hurricane season

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Kingwood36
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Hurricane season

Post by Kingwood36 » Tue Aug 06, 2019 12:17 pm

Boy it sure has been quiet..think it will stay that way or do you think the tropics will wake up in the next couple weeks?

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jasons2k
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Re: Hurricane season

Post by jasons2k » Tue Aug 06, 2019 2:20 pm

Kingwood36 wrote:
Tue Aug 06, 2019 12:17 pm
Boy it sure has been quiet..think it will stay that way or do you think the tropics will wake up in the next couple weeks?
They will. Having spells of no activity in July and stretching well into August is nothing unusual. Expect activity to ramp-up as we get closer to the end of August and into September.

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srainhoutx
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Re: Hurricane season

Post by srainhoutx » Wed Aug 07, 2019 8:27 am

Keep an eye on the Western Pacific tropical activity. The seasonal Atmospheric Pattern looks to shift East over the next 2 weeks toward the Central/Eastern Pacific. That may well mean that a pattern more conducive for Tropical mischief in our part of the World presents itself around the end of August and early September. Climatology favors that period and the atmospheric indicators/pattern may be favorable as well. It is after all the time when all eyes turn to the Tropics. We will see.
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TexasBreeze
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Re: Hurricane season

Post by TexasBreeze » Wed Aug 07, 2019 10:01 am

Eventually this upper ridge that will park over us for awhile will move away or weaken. This is a quiet period in the tropics. They may awaken at a similar time when the ridge moves away or weakens so late this month or September could potentially be more interesting.

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sambucol
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Re: Hurricane season

Post by sambucol » Wed Aug 07, 2019 3:36 pm

Don’t let your guard down. August and September have borne many powerful hurricanes.

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Re: Hurricane season

Post by Scott747 » Wed Aug 07, 2019 7:57 pm

Hmm.. Has somebody been looking at the models?

Seriously though I've noticed the last few days on the very long range that there has been a hint of something around the YP. Sure enough the latest few runs at show something slowly organizing and moving generally towards the western gulf. And it's a very large system in terms of coverage, not strength. Years past it would be easy to dismiss it but since the new GFS doesn't spin up everything with a pulse it might be something to begin keeping an eye on.

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Re: Hurricane season

Post by Ptarmigan » Wed Aug 07, 2019 8:54 pm

Even the most active season have quiet periods.

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srainhoutx
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Re: Hurricane season

Post by srainhoutx » Sat Aug 10, 2019 8:13 am

srainhoutx wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 8:27 am
Keep an eye on the Western Pacific tropical activity. The seasonal Atmospheric Pattern looks to shift East over the next 2 weeks toward the Central/Eastern Pacific. That may well mean that a pattern more conducive for Tropical mischief in our part of the World presents itself around the end of August and early September. Climatology favors that period and the atmospheric indicators/pattern may be favorable as well. It is after all the time when all eyes turn to the Tropics. We will see.
The Hemispheric/Atmospheric Pattern continues to indicate the possibility of more favorable conditions developing in the Western Atlantic Basin and likely Atlantic Basin Wide as we start the second half of August. The MJO graphic suggests that the conditions that have proven favorable in the Western Pacific will shift East in time and could begin to impact our part of the World just beyond August 15th. The MJO graphic suggests lowering pressures. The morning Updated Convectively Couple Kelvin Wave forecast (rising air and increased tropical thunderstorm development) also suggests that the atmospheric features we look to for clues or hints are coming together for some increased potential of tropical development. El Nino officially died and transitioned to a Neutral State this week and as some may have seen, NOAA increased their possibilities for an above average Hurricane Season. It's that time of year folks.
Attachments
08102019 Hurricane Climo Peak peakofseason.gif
08102019 MJO twc_globe_mjo_vp200.png
08102019 CCKW twc_mjoCCKW_vp200.png
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Scott747
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Re: Hurricane season

Post by Scott747 » Mon Aug 12, 2019 5:30 pm

18z GFS might get a little notice here.,..

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Re: Hurricane season

Post by Cpv17 » Mon Aug 12, 2019 5:57 pm

Scott747 wrote:
Mon Aug 12, 2019 5:30 pm
18z GFS might get a little notice here.,..
Absolutely.

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