August 2019: Weak Cold Front/Rain Chances To End August

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Pas_Bon
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Re: August 2019: Weak Cold Front/Rain Chances To End August

Post by Pas_Bon » Wed Aug 28, 2019 6:53 pm

MontgomeryCoWx wrote:
Wed Aug 28, 2019 2:05 pm
Gonna be a steamy tailgate in Aggieland tomorrow!
Gotta be steamy to lay a steamer! Lol!
Jk

Geaux Tigers ;)

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DoctorMu
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Re: August 2019: Weak Cold Front/Rain Chances To End August

Post by DoctorMu » Wed Aug 28, 2019 7:39 pm

srainhoutx wrote:
Wed Aug 28, 2019 6:42 pm
srainhoutx wrote:
Wed Aug 28, 2019 5:01 pm
Finally! We had a legitimate thunderstorm late this afternoon.
I emptied an inch out of the rain gauge. Filled the pool and fish ponds in my backyard!
Good news!


We had 0.7 in on Saturday; 0.15 in today in a brief shower.

Survive and advance!

It's almost time to broadcast sulfur and shut down watering if possible for brown patch season in October. September of also best for pre-emergence application for weeds. Never a dull moment in Texas lawn and gardening. One of our rose bushes was fried while out of town...and it was a supposedly hardy antique variety.

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DoctorMu
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Re: August 2019: Weak Cold Front/Rain Chances To End August

Post by DoctorMu » Wed Aug 28, 2019 7:40 pm

Pas_Bon wrote:
Wed Aug 28, 2019 6:53 pm
MontgomeryCoWx wrote:
Wed Aug 28, 2019 2:05 pm
Gonna be a steamy tailgate in Aggieland tomorrow!
Gotta be steamy to lay a steamer! Lol!
Jk

Geaux Tigers ;)
TG college football season is here. I'm not going anywhere near campus tomorrow. lol

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don
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Re: August 2019: Weak Cold Front/Rain Chances To End August

Post by don » Wed Aug 28, 2019 10:44 pm

Finally got power back on here in the Heights after 4 hours. The thunderstorm was very potent, winds were at least gusting to over 60 mph and the rain was so heavy my street flooded completely in just 15 minutes.

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jasons2k
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Re: August 2019: Weak Cold Front/Rain Chances To End August

Post by jasons2k » Thu Aug 29, 2019 6:39 am

don wrote:
Wed Aug 28, 2019 10:44 pm
Finally got power back on here in the Heights after 4 hours. The thunderstorm was very potent, winds were at least gusting to over 60 mph and the rain was so heavy my street flooded completely in just 15 minutes.
I would have gladly traded a few hours of no power for some rain.

NWS had me at 40% for today — woke up and now it’s trimmed to 30%

Mercy. I give up. Waving my white flag. Sprinklers are on.

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jasons2k
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Re: August 2019: Weak Cold Front/Rain Chances To End August

Post by jasons2k » Thu Aug 29, 2019 11:45 am

The satellite loops show the low level flow going in all sorts of directions across all of Eastern Texas. In the immediate vicinity they are drifting from NE to SE, and the cumulus field to my north and east is bubbling up nicely. Hopefully not another Lucy.

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Re: August 2019: Weak Cold Front/Rain Chances To End August

Post by tireman4 » Thu Aug 29, 2019 1:28 pm

000
FXUS64 KHGX 291740
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1240 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019

.Aviation...
Starting to see some sct shra/tsra develop along the coast and
near the bays. These will expand inland w/ continued daytime
heating. Fcst soundings do support some strong gusty winds near
the more localized intense cells that manage to develop. Like
previous days, activity should dissipate by early evening. Same
diurnal precip setup again tomorrow. Otherwise, other than some
late night patchy fog near LBX, VFR conditions should persist
outside of any convection. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 97 76 97 74 96 / 20 20 20 0 10
Houston (IAH) 94 76 94 77 95 / 30 30 20 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 91 82 91 82 91 / 30 20 20 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$


.AVIATION...
Could see brief MVFR ceilings and/or visibilities develop early this
morning. Expecting to see isolated to widely scattered SHRA/TSRA and
possible MVFR ceilings develop near the coast this morning then spread
inland during the late morning through afternoon hours. Everything
should quiet down by sunset this evening. Repeat again tomorrow. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019/

DISCUSSION...

A relatively hot, but generally typical daily pattern should
dominate for the rest of the work week. Some drier air is expected
to work in and cut down on showers and storms this weekend. Next
week will see an upper trough arrive in the Western Gulf from the
east. How much it boosts moisture - and thus rain chances - over
SE Texas will depend strongly on just how far north this trough
is able to reach.

SHORT TERM [Through Tonight]...

Southeast Texas is expected to move back toward a typical
summertime pattern with shower and thunderstorm development
possible in the morning near the coast and in the afternoon
inland. There should be enough daytime heating (less cloud
cover then yesterday) to bring high temperatures up a couple
degrees warmer than the area saw yesterday. Once again,
daytime development should dissipate this evening and then
look for possible late night through early morning development
mainly near the coast once again tomorrow morning.

LONG TERM [Friday Through Thursday]...

With the western branch of the subtropical ridge looking more or
less the same tomorrow as it does today, would expect a pretty
similar day on Friday compared to today. There is a shortwave that
is generally expected to come out of the Central Plains towards
the Mid-South, which would soften 500 mb heights over us some, so
we may manage a bit more coverage/intensity in afternoon
convection? Despite having the same synoptic pattern in the GFS
and Euro, there are mixed results on how much convection fires
(the NAM, of all models, is basically dry). But my understanding
of this setup would be for a bit more coverage, and so I nudge
PoPs a bit higher over today.

For the weekend, high pressure comes to reign over the middle
Mississippi Valley, which sets up drier, northeasterly flow for us
in Southeast Texas. This should dry things out fairly effectively,
applicable to both dewpoints and rain chances. I don`t know if I
could go ahead and call the weekend to be completely devoid of
rain, but I`d expect the radar to be pretty empty these days.

Looking into next week, we`ll see a rebound in precipitable water
as an upper trough works across the Gulf of Mexico and towards our
longitude. If it can drift further north, I`d be looking for a
significant enough surge that we`d see a pretty enhanced daily
pattern deeper into the week. But, having said that, the model
guidance continues to be confident that the western upper ridge
will build back strongly enough to keep the trough buried into
Mexico, bringing the heaviest rains there. That said, there is a
lot of uncertainty in the track and intensity of Dorian, and I
suspect that it will have to have its say on the evolution of that
ridging as well. I`ve got pretty high PoPs over the Gulf waters,
but am still pretty conservative over land. If the ridge wins out,
those PoPs will surely trend down even further towards dry, and if
the trough pushes farther north, PoPs could come up significantly.

MARINE...

Light winds and low seas will continue for the remainder of the
week and on through the weekend. Winds should become east to
northeast and slightly increase early next week as an easterly
wave treks westward across the southern Gulf. 42

TROPICAL...

TD Erin - is a goner. It is being absorbed/transitioned into an
extratropical cyclone, and its remnants will be scooted up to the
Canadian Maritimes.

Hurricane Dorian - continues to become better organized as a
center reformation brought the track significantly to the right,
and now it will miss the bulk of the terrain of the Greater
Antilles. There is still a good bit of uncertainty in the precise
track and intensity of the storm, but a major hurricane
approaching Florida this holiday weekend appears to becoming the
more probable outcome here. Despite the uncertainty, there remains
pretty strong consensus in the model guidance at this time that
Southeast Texas is still not at risk.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 97 75 96 74 96 / 20 20 20 0 10
Houston (IAH) 95 77 94 77 95 / 30 30 20 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 91 84 90 82 91 / 30 20 20 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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jasons2k
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Re: August 2019: Weak Cold Front/Rain Chances To End August

Post by jasons2k » Thu Aug 29, 2019 3:08 pm

Oh geez - another Lucy?? Big storms blowing up to my east and southeast, but they are moving southwest. I need that line to build just a *few* more miles to the north before passing by...so far it’s just not happening!

Edit - just stepped outside. Nice line of towers going-up to the north. I hear thunder, but it’s gonna pass me by before it dumps.

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jasons2k
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Re: August 2019: Weak Cold Front/Rain Chances To End August

Post by jasons2k » Thu Aug 29, 2019 3:21 pm

Oh good grief. The blips show-up on radar to my west literally one radar frame after the line passed my house. I missed this one by a few minutes.

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Re: August 2019: Weak Cold Front/Rain Chances To End August

Post by Cpv17 » Thu Aug 29, 2019 4:26 pm

I really haven’t seen much of anything on the radar today. Pretty quiet for the most part. I expected more today.

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