August 2019: Weak Cold Front/Rain Chances To End August

[tireman4]

014
FXUS64 KHGX 021145
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
645 AM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019

.AVIATION...

Could see some SHRA/TSRA development today, mainly this
morning near the coast and this afternoon inland. The
12Z TAFs currently have VCSH, and will need to update
if TSRA do materialize. If anything does develop, it
should be gone by sunset. Tomorrow has the potential
to be a little more active, so have included VCSH
starting mid-morning at IAH. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019/

SHORT TERM...

Southeast Texas remains on the eastern edge of upper level
ridging centered off to our west and northwest. With daytime
heating, look for another day with possible late morning
through afternoon shower and thunderstorm development.
A weak shortwave or two (evident on some of the latest
models) could move south through the area and bring slightly
better storm coverage, but it currently looks like this will
be setting up over the weekend. High temperatures are once
again expected to range from the upper 80s to around 90 at
the coast to the mid to upper 90s well inland. Any activity
that does develop during the day will be gone by sunset, and
low temperatures are expected to be mostly in the mid to
upper 70s inland to around 80 near the coast. 42

LONG TERM...

Precipitation chances increase going into the weekend as a shortwave
enters the region from the north, but there are some pretty big
differences in the models. The GFS is the wettest solutions with
precipitation reaching the area Saturday afternoon with off and on
showers continuing through Sunday. The EC and NAM are drier with
Saturday mostly dry and showers not arriving until Sunday.
Temperatures this weekend will depend on how much moisture gets into
the region... more clouds and rain = cooler, sunnier and drier =
warmer.

The workweek starts with some lingering moisture Monday afternoon,
but then building heights will bring warmer and drier weather by
midweek.

Fowler

MARINE...

A light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will persist for the
end of the week, through the weekend and on into the start of next
week. Periods of showers and thunderstorms will be possible, with
the best chances probably occuring over the weekend and into the
start of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 96 76 94 74 93 / 0 10 30 40 40
Houston (IAH) 94 77 93 76 92 / 30 10 40 30 40
Galveston (GLS) 90 82 91 80 89 / 20 10 20 20 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

[tireman4]

August 2nd Outlook

[aunneste]

after 58 inches of rain from Harvey, I'll pass. thank you.

Right - don't tempt fate around here. Nothing more than a wave, thank you.

Harvey was an epic storm, I'd totally take an encore. Great rains for cooler weather and greener landscapes, all with more time to Netflix and chill. Best of both worlds.

[BlueJay]

Let us not forget:

With Harvey, an estimated 13 million people were affected, nearly 135,000 homes damaged or destroyed in the historic flooding, and up to a million cars were wrecked. The death toll is at 88. (Sep 7, 2018)

[jasons2k]

after 58 inches of rain from Harvey, I'll pass. thank you.

Right - don't tempt fate around here. Nothing more than a wave, thank you.

Harvey was an epic storm, I'd totally take an encore. Great rains for cooler weather and greener landscapes, all with more time to Netflix and chill. Best of both worlds.

You would take an encore? Do you realize how close we came to losing the Barker dam?? If Harvey had not made that jog east and nailed Beaumont, we could have had a tsunami rolling down Buffalo Bayou.

We were much closer to that ‘worse case’ than what is widely reported or what most people realize. The death toll would have been horrendous, among other things.

Sorry, not many comments rile me up but this one does. Pretty insensitive if you ask me.

[TexasBreeze]

I know people who are --still-- dealing with damaged houses and also in financial peril as a result of the hurricane. It is not a very good comment to make about wanting an encore!

[Cromagnum]

after 58 inches of rain from Harvey, I'll pass. thank you.

Right - don't tempt fate around here. Nothing more than a wave, thank you.

Harvey was an epic storm, I'd totally take an encore. Great rains for cooler weather and greener landscapes, all with more time to Netflix and chill. Best of both worlds.

Wow, what a troll.

[jasons2k]

OMG it's raining, at 9:52 at night, from a lone cell. We have been blessed many times this summer, and I am very thankful.

Edit: It's flipping pouring!!

Edit#2: Got .40" in about 15 minutes. Not bad!

[Cromagnum]

Still not a drop

[srainhoutx]

A couple of upper air disturbances are rotating South along the Eastern flank of the Upper Ridge to our West. Scattered showers/thunderstorms look possible throughout the weekend into Monday.

[jasons2k]

I’m thinking my rain chances today are better than the NWS forecast of 40%.

[DoctorMu]

A couple of upper air disturbances are rotating South along the Eastern flank of the Upper Ridge to our West. Scattered showers/thunderstorms look possible throughout the weekend into Monday.

Yep. High pressure parked over the 4 Corners. This weekend may be the best shot of rain for us in the Brazos Valley for a week or two, assuming no tropical action where tempting fate is dangerous.

[DoctorMu]

OMG it's raining, at 9:52 at night, from a lone cell. We have been blessed many times this summer, and I am very thankful.

Edit: It's flipping pouring!!

Edit#2: Got .40" in about 15 minutes. Not bad!

We had 0.47 inches IMBY for the month of July. A little rain dance + east side of the 4 Corners ridge might do it today.

[Cromagnum]

I give up. New storms fired up, died, and then refired to my southeast

[jasons2k]

It’s 92 at my house with a dew point of 80. You’d think that would be enough to develop some storms - or at least maintain the stuff coming down from the north - but no...they keep fizzling. SMH...

[DoctorMu]

I give up. New storms fired up, died, and then refired to my southeast

Same here. Lucy and the footballed again.

[mckinne63]

Clouded up in Stafford this morning, nice breeze, thought we may get a drop or two, but nothing. Sun is out now. Nothing but hot and steamy. We have had worse summers. Was still hoping for a shower or two today.

[srainhoutx]

I've had some sprinkles throughout the day, but nothing to speak of. I'm very content with clouds and lower temperatures in this sort of pattern. Folks, as 2011 taught us it could be far worse across Texas and our Region.

[aunneste]

Harvey's issues were mostly a matter of Greater Houston's poor, sprawled out design. Had the area been a real dense and concentrated metro like NYC or the urban areas of Europe, there would not have been near the amount of devastation.

Meanwhile, the power was still on throughout that epic tempest. All you had to do was stock up, then hit up Neflix, YouTube, CrunchyRoll, etc that entire week while lots and lots of records were broken.

Way better than boring droughts that ruin the landscape. I'm sure you all agree, hence the lamenting every time the typical summer storms fail to hit the house.

Let us not forget:

With Harvey, an estimated 13 million people were affected, nearly 135,000 homes damaged or destroyed in the historic flooding, and up to a million cars were wrecked. The death toll is at 88. (Sep 7, 2018)

You would take an encore? Do you realize how close we came to losing the Barker dam?? If Harvey had not made that jog east and nailed Beaumont, we could have had a tsunami rolling down Buffalo Bayou.

We were much closer to that ‘worse case’ than what is widely reported or what most people realize. The death toll would have been horrendous, among other things.

Sorry, not many comments rile me up but this one does. Pretty insensitive if you ask me.

Wow, what a troll.

[aunneste]

Around the same time Harvey hit, Typhoon Hato struck the Hong Kong/Macau sector, a highly dense region right along the South China shore. And guess what? Only 26 fatalities. Truly demonstrates the impact that smart, dense infrastructure can have regarding the effects from these storms.

And with that monsoon, no worries about summer drought in Asia uglifying the landscape. North America is such a fail.