August 2019: Weak Cold Front/Rain Chances To End August

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Got an inch of rain up here today. Nice surprise.

[DoctorMu]

GFS ushers in a cold front on August 8th. The Canadian sniffs out more of a backdoor front on Aug 4/5.

Pretty amazing if it pans out - 2 relatively potent fronts in July then August.

[Texaspirate11]

GFS ushers in a cold front on August 8th. The Canadian sniffs out more of a backdoor front on Aug 4/5.

Pretty amazing if it pans out - 2 relatively potent fronts in July then August.

Let's shut down cane season!

[MontgomeryCoWx]

GFS ushers in a cold front on August 8th. The Canadian sniffs out more of a backdoor front on Aug 4/5.

Pretty amazing if it pans out - 2 relatively potent fronts in July then August.

Let's shut down cane season!

Hell, let’s do that and bring Fall a month early!

[DoctorMu]

GFS ushers in a cold front on August 8th. The Canadian sniffs out more of a backdoor front on Aug 4/5.

Pretty amazing if it pans out - 2 relatively potent fronts in July then August.

Let's shut down cane season!

Hell, let’s do that and bring Fall a month early!

I'm on board with that!

[aunneste]

Let's shut down cane season!

No. Plenty of areas in Texas missed out on quite a bit of rain during July. And if a hurricane is what is needed, then I'll gladly take it.

[aunneste]

Just looking at all the plant life around makes me realize how gross it is to have wet winter, dry summer weather patterns. I really don't know how the people in Mediterranean climates manage that type of pattern, the opposite is better by far.

[Texaspirate11]

Let's shut down cane season!

No. Plenty of areas in Texas missed out on quite a bit of rain during July. And if a hurricane is what is needed, then I'll gladly take it.

after 58 inches of rain from Harvey, I'll pass. thank you.

[srainhoutx]

Thursday morning Tropical Weather briefing from Jeff:

An area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is located roughly 1000 miles SW of the Cape Verde Islands. This feature remains fairly disorganized due to unfavorable upper level winds and dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean. This wave is moving westward at 15-20mph and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual turn toward the WNW. As 96L approaches the eastern/northeastern Caribbean Sea over the next 5 days (late this weekend into early next week) upper level winds may become more favorable for the formation of a tropical depression or storm. There are still some obstacles that lay ahead of this feature and any development may be slow.

The National Hurricane Center currently gives the area a 20% chance of development over the next 48 hours and a 70% chance over the next 5 days.

After 5 days the track and intensity are fairly uncertain with a large scale trough along the US east coast and interaction of the system with the Caribbean Islands it is unclear in what form 96L will be by the middle of next week.

[DoctorMu]

Let's shut down cane season!

No. Plenty of areas in Texas missed out on quite a bit of rain during July. And if a hurricane is what is needed, then I'll gladly take it.

after 58 inches of rain from Harvey, I'll pass. thank you.

Right - don't tempt fate around here. Nothing more than a wave, thank you.

[tireman4]

014
FXUS64 KHGX 021145
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
645 AM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019

.AVIATION...

Could see some SHRA/TSRA development today, mainly this
morning near the coast and this afternoon inland. The
12Z TAFs currently have VCSH, and will need to update
if TSRA do materialize. If anything does develop, it
should be gone by sunset. Tomorrow has the potential
to be a little more active, so have included VCSH
starting mid-morning at IAH. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019/

SHORT TERM...

Southeast Texas remains on the eastern edge of upper level
ridging centered off to our west and northwest. With daytime
heating, look for another day with possible late morning
through afternoon shower and thunderstorm development.
A weak shortwave or two (evident on some of the latest
models) could move south through the area and bring slightly
better storm coverage, but it currently looks like this will
be setting up over the weekend. High temperatures are once
again expected to range from the upper 80s to around 90 at
the coast to the mid to upper 90s well inland. Any activity
that does develop during the day will be gone by sunset, and
low temperatures are expected to be mostly in the mid to
upper 70s inland to around 80 near the coast. 42

LONG TERM...

Precipitation chances increase going into the weekend as a shortwave
enters the region from the north, but there are some pretty big
differences in the models. The GFS is the wettest solutions with
precipitation reaching the area Saturday afternoon with off and on
showers continuing through Sunday. The EC and NAM are drier with
Saturday mostly dry and showers not arriving until Sunday.
Temperatures this weekend will depend on how much moisture gets into
the region... more clouds and rain = cooler, sunnier and drier =
warmer.

The workweek starts with some lingering moisture Monday afternoon,
but then building heights will bring warmer and drier weather by
midweek.

Fowler

MARINE...

A light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will persist for the
end of the week, through the weekend and on into the start of next
week. Periods of showers and thunderstorms will be possible, with
the best chances probably occuring over the weekend and into the
start of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 96 76 94 74 93 / 0 10 30 40 40
Houston (IAH) 94 77 93 76 92 / 30 10 40 30 40
Galveston (GLS) 90 82 91 80 89 / 20 10 20 20 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

[tireman4]

August 2nd Outlook

[aunneste]

after 58 inches of rain from Harvey, I'll pass. thank you.

Right - don't tempt fate around here. Nothing more than a wave, thank you.

Harvey was an epic storm, I'd totally take an encore. Great rains for cooler weather and greener landscapes, all with more time to Netflix and chill. Best of both worlds.

[BlueJay]

Let us not forget:

With Harvey, an estimated 13 million people were affected, nearly 135,000 homes damaged or destroyed in the historic flooding, and up to a million cars were wrecked. The death toll is at 88. (Sep 7, 2018)

[jasons2k]

after 58 inches of rain from Harvey, I'll pass. thank you.

Right - don't tempt fate around here. Nothing more than a wave, thank you.

Harvey was an epic storm, I'd totally take an encore. Great rains for cooler weather and greener landscapes, all with more time to Netflix and chill. Best of both worlds.

You would take an encore? Do you realize how close we came to losing the Barker dam?? If Harvey had not made that jog east and nailed Beaumont, we could have had a tsunami rolling down Buffalo Bayou.

We were much closer to that ‘worse case’ than what is widely reported or what most people realize. The death toll would have been horrendous, among other things.

Sorry, not many comments rile me up but this one does. Pretty insensitive if you ask me.

[TexasBreeze]

I know people who are --still-- dealing with damaged houses and also in financial peril as a result of the hurricane. It is not a very good comment to make about wanting an encore!

[Cromagnum]

after 58 inches of rain from Harvey, I'll pass. thank you.

Right - don't tempt fate around here. Nothing more than a wave, thank you.

Harvey was an epic storm, I'd totally take an encore. Great rains for cooler weather and greener landscapes, all with more time to Netflix and chill. Best of both worlds.

Wow, what a troll.

[jasons2k]

OMG it's raining, at 9:52 at night, from a lone cell. We have been blessed many times this summer, and I am very thankful.

Edit: It's flipping pouring!!

Edit#2: Got .40" in about 15 minutes. Not bad!

[Cromagnum]

Still not a drop

[srainhoutx]

A couple of upper air disturbances are rotating South along the Eastern flank of the Upper Ridge to our West. Scattered showers/thunderstorms look possible throughout the weekend into Monday.