August 2019: Weak Cold Front/Rain Chances To End August

[Rip76]

Thoughts since watching satellite since yesterday, that it would spin up as a minimal TS while moving ashore.

[jasons2k]

That cell to my north keeps reforming, almost rotating and spinning is place....so close...been doing this for over an hour now. Lots of thunder but still no rain.

Update - I'm finally getting some rain here. Nothing heavy, but it's raining. Better than nothing.

[869MB]

That cell to my north keeps reforming, almost rotating and spinning is place....so close...been doing this for over an hour now. Lots of thunder but still no rain.

Update - I'm finally getting some rain here. Nothing heavy, but it's raining. Better than nothing.

And do you want to take a wild guess at whose neighborhood has seen nothing but sunshine all day today?

[srainhoutx]

I picked up a little over a half an inch this afternoon.

[Texaspirate11]

Dont hate me yall but I just landed in Minneapolis and its 75 going down to 59 tonight....and got lots of rain by the bay I guess cuz the alerts were going off....

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Dont hate me yall but I just landed in Minneapolis and its 75 going down to 59 tonight....and got lots of rain by the bay I guess cuz the alerts were going off....

I envy you

[djmike]

With daytime heating diminishing, these storms and coverage sure fizzled. Figured this was gonna be an all night deal for us in Beaumont. FFW issued till tomorrow night. 80% for us tomorrow. We’ll see.

[Cpv17]

That cell to my north keeps reforming, almost rotating and spinning is place....so close...been doing this for over an hour now. Lots of thunder but still no rain.

Update - I'm finally getting some rain here. Nothing heavy, but it's raining. Better than nothing.

I feel your pain. There’s been some heavy rain around my house lately, but all we’ve had is light stuff. Nothing over a tenth of an inch yet.

[Cpv17]

With daytime heating diminishing, these storms and coverage sure fizzled. Figured this was gonna be an all night deal for us in Beaumont. FFW issued till tomorrow night. 80% for us tomorrow. We’ll see.

The Beaumont/Port Arthur region is typically the wettest in the entire state. I’m sure you guys will get dumped on cuz that’s what almost always happens there.

[Texashawk]

“Where’s that 6 inches you promised me, David?”

[sau27]

While it is waaaaaayyyy out there 99L strikes me as interesting. It’s already getting a nice curved look and is low enough in latitude to potentially be a Caribbean cruiser.

[Cpv17]

While it is waaaaaayyyy out there 99L strikes me as interesting. It’s already getting a nice curved look and is low enough in latitude to potentially be a Caribbean cruiser.

Agreed:

[DoctorMu]

Dont hate me yall but I just landed in Minneapolis and its 75 going down to 59 tonight....and got lots of rain by the bay I guess cuz the alerts were going off....

haha We're up here, too. Checked out the State Fair today. Crowds had to exceed 150,000. Parking was a true nightmare. Spent the late afternoon at the University of Minnesota.

I'm really pulling for some rain in the Brazos Valley, because I set the sprinklers for 2 nights, while I really needed 3 in a week's time. Brutal 100°F temps in BCS. In the 70s at Mount Rushmore, across South Dakota and in Minnesota. Absolute Chamber of Commerce weather. 72°F, Dewpoint of 56°F, 8-12 mph breeze, sunny. Glorious.

We're headed back to Texas later this weekend. Will probably only keep one eye open upon first glimpse of the lawn and plants on Monday evening.

[Texaspirate11]

Dont hate me yall but I just landed in Minneapolis and its 75 going down to 59 tonight....and got lots of rain by the bay I guess cuz the alerts were going off....

haha We're up here, too. Checked out the State Fair today. Crowds had to exceed 150,000. Parking was a true nightmare. Spent the late afternoon at the University of Minnesota.

I'm really pulling for some rain in the Brazos Valley, because I set the sprinklers for 2 nights, while I really needed 3 in a week's time. Brutal 100°F temps in BCS. In the 70s at Mount Rushmore, across South Dakota and in Minnesota. Absolute Chamber of Commerce weather. 72°F, Dewpoint of 56°F, 8-12 mph breeze, sunny. Glorious.

We're headed back to Texas later this weekend. Will probably only keep one eye open upon first glimpse of the lawn and plants on Monday evening.

The weather is glorious here. Going to the Fair on Sunday. Yes, I heard it was really mobbed today••

[Scott747]

Both the euro and GFS are now showing a similar setup in what's a really strange scenario.

They both take the energy from the system currently causing the rainfall and doubles it back across the gulf towards Louisiana (Euro) and now Texas (GFS) sometime next weekend.

No real strong organization but something to track if a few more runs continue to show consistency.

[Scott747]

It's the very long range....

0z GFS brings 99l just s of Brownsville as a deepening cat 2 the weekend after next. Obviously things will change.

[unome]

if only it were 150 miles inland to the NW

Code: Select all

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
629 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

A large cluster of showers and thunderstorms just off the coast
looks to push towards the coast later today, with scattered
showers and storms farther inland. To represent this, have TEMPO
TSRAs from IAH coastward, but hold at VCTS for the remaining three
terminals. Any terminals impacted directly by a storm could see
some gusty winds, but severe weather is not currently anticipated. 
Expecting activity to tail off tonight, with a return of showers
near the coast late in the forecast period.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 351 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019/...

.DISCUSSION...

- Locally heavy rainfall possible again today mainly along the
  coast. Most areas will likely see rainfall amounts of between
  0.25 and 1 inch but could be some isolated 3 inch rainfall
  amounts like we saw yesterday. Street/urban flooding will be the
  main concern.
- Sunday should see less showers/thunderstorms than today but
  still a small chance of locally heavy rainfall.
- Upper level ridging begins to build over Texas Mon/Tue which 
  could lead to higher temperatures and possible heat advisory as 
  heat index values could reach 110F.


.SHORT TERM [Today Through Tonight]...

The radar is beginning to light up over the Gulf as an upper low
continues to approach from the south. 500 mb analysis and water
vapor imagery shows that it's not terribly strong, but certainly
has enough heft and tropical moisture to tap into to boost
shower/storm coverage today. 

The upper level feature itself looks a bit further west than 
anticipated...perhaps aided by a formerly impressive but now 
decaying MCC coming off the high ground in Mexico. Because of 
that, I've had to pump up PoPs way on our eastern edge to account 
for that westward drift. Still, a northern stream trough is 
already swinging through North Texas, and am counting on it to 
rotate through quickly enough that the height falls to our north 
associated with it will induce the low to eject to the northeast, 
and taking much of the heaviest rains away from us.

Since I'm still largely following the big scale picture of
previous forecasts, there remains a pretty sharp gradient in rain
chances along our area's eastern edge and down the coast compared
to locations well inland to the north and west towards College
Station. Models largely look to be even more aggressive than me,
keeping our far northwest totally dry, while I hold with at least
slight chance even way up there. Wouldn't be surprised to see a
couple showers pop up, but the coverage that far from the upper
low is likely to be pretty sparse.

As far as rainfall amounts go, I expect that today will be widely
variable, much like yesterday. There's certainly potential for
some higher end rainfall, given relatively slow storm motion and -
at the coast, at least - precipitable water in excess of 2.5
inches per GOES TPW. I absolutely would not be surprised to see
the wettest of today's storms drop 3+ inches again over some
unlucky spot. I also wouldn't be surprised to see another spot
just a mile or two down the road end up with just a couple tenths
of an inch. 

Like yesterday, heavily urbanized locales and spots that drain 
poorly should be on guard for localized flooding issues, but the 
bigger flooding concern should occur to our east where the 
synoptic environment looks a little more supportive. About the 
only way I see this going sideways is if the trough to our north 
isn't quite strong enough to draw up the Gulf low to the 
northeast, and it drifts even further west before leaving us
behind, opening up a larger portion of our east to a more 
supportive environment for more widespread heavy rain. *Furiously 
knocking on wood*

Luchs


.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Saturday]...

Sunday the broad upper level trough and tropical disturbance that
has brought rain to the area Friday and Saturday should be forced
to move east with the main upper level flow. Precipitable water 
values will still be 2 to 2.3 inches and supportive of scattered 
showers and storms. Forecast will keep higher rain chances east of
I-45 and south of I-10 for Sunday. There will be a pretty quick 
drop off in rain chances from SE to NW across the area.

Monday into Tuesday precipitable water values drop to 1.5 inches 
with upper level ridging beginning to build over Texas again. 
Forecast will still keep some low chances of rain but the bigger 
story will be high temperatures back into the upper 90s to low 
100s. With humid conditions lingering, heat index values could top
out around 110F so we may need to issue a heat advisory.

Wednesday through the end of the coming week the upper level 
ridge retrogrades back to the Desert SW and allows for a strong 
trough to move across the Great Lakes. Models have varying 
strengths for this trough but the general consensus of the models 
is to bring a front into the area late Wednesday into Thursday. 
This is more of a backdoor front from the NE so not really much of
a change other than to increase rain chances Thursday into Friday.

Overpeck


.MARINE...

Onshore winds are a bit stronger this morning but not enough to
warrant any small craft exercise caution. Southerly winds 
increase Monday into Tuesday as pressures fall over west Texas. 
This may bring winds/seas closer to levels needing small craft 
exercise caution but we may only see that increase at night. 
Overall we are just expecting winds speeds of 10 to 15 knots with 
seas in the 2 to 4 foot range for the next 5 to 6 days.

Overpeck


.TROPICAL...

I feel compelled to add a tropical section to the discussion 
since the season has been relatively quiet but we now have 2 
disturbances to discussion. Neither of them are of concern to SE 
Texas. The first is over S Florida that should move NE into the 
Atlantic away from the east coast. The second disturbance is in 
the tropical Atlantic main development region. It should approach 
the Caribbean the next several days. Once reaching the Caribbean 
conditions will be hostile for tropical cyclones. Until then there
is a chance of a tropical depression or storm forming.

Overpeck

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL)  96  77  97  78 101 /  40  20  20  10  10 
Houston (IAH)          92  78  94  79  96 /  60  30  50  10  20 
Galveston (GLS)        89  82  91  83  91 /  80  60  70  30  30 

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Luchs 
LONG TERM...Overpeck 
AVIATION...Luchs 
MARINE...Overpeck 
TROPICAL...Overpeck

[Cpv17]

There should be enough lift today to support a decent outbreak of scattered showers and storms once it heats up out there.

[Cromagnum]

Looks like everything is offshore and flowing offshore.

[Rip76]

https://i.imgur.com/ctaEIHI.gif

Look at this try and wrap up just south of the TX/LA border.
Which unfortunately would probably pull every thing East of Houston.