August 2019: Weak Cold Front/Rain Chances To End August

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Scott747
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That's a fairly sizable shift w on the euro ensembles. Still a long ways from being a real threat to Texas but if it keeps trending with the strong ridge then it's something to keep a track on.

Front would be a saviour....
Scott747
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Large shift on the 18z GFS ensembles. Large group towards central la with a few towards the upper tx coast.

Still in the longer range and confidence is low but there has been a definite trend to the w today.
sau27
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As always it is going to come down to the strength of the ridge. If the Bermuda high can build back in after TD 5/Erin pushes it back.
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djmike
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Question: is Florida wide enough to tear apart any system or is their a chance it could reform in the Ngulf?
Mike
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(IH-10 & College Street)
Cromagnum
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Florida is flat. A relatively quick moving storm probably wouldn't notice much from it. It has to survive Hispaniola first though.
Pas_Bon
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djmike wrote: Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:42 am Question: is Florida wide enough to tear apart any system or is their a chance it could reform in the Ngulf?
Andrew, Katrina, and countless others have all traversed Florida with nary an issue
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tireman4
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687
FXUS64 KHGX 271147
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
647 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2019

.AVIATION...
Could see some brief MVFR ceilings this morning. Otherwise, VFR with
mainly S to SSW winds 5 to 10 knots. Increasing high clouds moving
into the area from the north could end up keeping convective temperatures
just out of reach, so have kept the TAFs dry for today. But, area could
end up seeing possible SHRA/TSRA from any outflows/boundaries and
associated storms moving into the area from the north today through
tomorrow. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2019/

DISCUSSION...

After a very hot Monday with some locations seeing the heat index
rise above 110 degrees, today looks abnormally hot again, and so
a heat advisory is in effect for the entire area again.
Temperatures look to gradually back off ever so slightly deeper
into the week, but high temperatures still much more resemble the
depths of summer than the end of the season. We -may- cool enough
to no longer require heat advisories, but probably not a whole lot
more than that.

The approach of a weakening cold front from the north should help
showers and thunderstorms bounce back in the midweek, but it may
take until deep into the weekend for any kind of front to
actually sag through most of Southeast Texas. Not sure it`s going
to make any real kind of difference in temperatures, but it would
make for a wind shift and have implications on rain chances.

Finally, the tropics. TD6 is an easy one - no threat whatsoever to
Southeast Texas. As for Dorian? At this point we lack evidence
that we have any cause for concern, but it is so far off that it
is still responsible to stay aware of the forecast for the storm
in the coming days.

SHORT TERM [Through Tonight]...

A Heat Advisory is in effect today for all of Southeast Texas.
Maximum heat index values are expected to peak in a 107 to 113
degree range. Could see some isolated shower and/or thunderstorm
development, and have some low rain chances in the forecast.
Will be monitoring the forecast for a possible increase in
showers/thunderstorms beginning tonight as activity up north
(partly associated with a weak front) sags southward into our
area. 42

LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Tuesday]...

For Wednesday and Thursday, it does appear that the subtropical
ridge will weaken modestly over the Gulf, with the strongest
portion of the ridge drawing back a bit towards the Four Corners.
At the same time, the front currently draped across Oklahoma Because
of this, went ahead and trended PoPs upwards for the midweek
after another pretty dry day on Tuesday. Similarly, these are
currently two of the cooler days of the forecast period - with
cooler very much operating as a relative term. Right now, Thursday
is generally my coolest day of the week, and all of our main
climate sites still have a forecast high a few degrees above
seasonal averages.

After that, things start to get...fuzzy...with the forecast. In
general, the idea is that this weak boundary (calling it a front
is probably too generous) will slowly sag towards the coast,
though probably not making it all the way there. We should see
some clearer skies and modestly drier air on the backside of the
boundary, but not any cooler air. As a result, the northern bulk
of the area could see some cooler nights thanks to the air being a
bit drier...but more sun and less low level moisture probably
means afternoon highs will be similar...maybe even warmer.
Fortunately, the lower dewpoints should keep the heat index at
least below the 108 degree heat advisory threshold. At the
coast...well, no real changes.

MARINE...

Caution level winds early this morning are expected to weaken as
the day progresses. Light to occasionally moderate winds along
with low seas can be expected for the remainder of the week
along with periods of showers and thunderstorms. 42

TROPICAL...

There are two active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin at
this time.

Tropical Depression Six - Not much to say here. It is way too far
north, moving to the east, and it would take a pretty dramatic
change in the laws of physics for it to become an issue for us
here in Southeast Texas.

Tropical Storm Dorian - Currently moving through the Lesser
Antilles. Through the next five days, it will continue to the WNW
or NW across the Greater Antilles, and likely towards the Bahamas.
Beyond that, there is much less confidence in the forecast, both
for track and intensity. At this time, there is no reason for
concern that Southeast Texas will see any influence from Dorian.
But, with such a long range forecast, it`s only responsible to
keep an eye on things, just in case something strange happens.

There`s no need to be glued to Dorian, but it`d be a good idea to
check in every day or so and see what the latest is. It never
hurts to make sure your kit`s ready to go, and your plan is set.
Even if Dorian doesn`t come our way, we`re in the peak of
hurricane season and being prepared for any possible future storms
is very good.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 99 76 98 77 98 / 10 20 20 20 30
Houston (IAH) 98 78 98 79 95 / 20 20 30 10 40
Galveston (GLS) 93 84 93 84 91 / 10 20 30 30 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following
zones: Austin...Brazoria Islands...Brazos...Burleson...
Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal
Harris...Coastal Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...
Fort Bend...Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula...
Grimes...Houston...Inland Brazoria...Inland Galveston...
Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland Matagorda...
Madison...Matagorda Islands...Montgomery...Northern
Liberty...Polk...San Jacinto...Southern Liberty...Trinity...
Walker...Waller...Washington...Wharton.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 9 AM CDT this morning
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Matagorda Bay...
Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20
to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20
to 60 NM.

&&

$$
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jasons2k
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djmike wrote: Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:42 am Question: is Florida wide enough to tear apart any system or is their a chance it could reform in the Ngulf?
That’s not an easy question to answer. It depends on a number of factors, such as - what part of the peninsula will the storm cross? The most southern portion across the Everglades, which is mostly water anyway, or further up, where the Florida Ridge actually has some hills?

Storm motion - obviously the quicker it moves, the less influence the land will have.

Atmospheric environment - might be the biggest factor - is the storm strengthening or weakening as it approaches? Is it a large moist pocket with good outflow channels, or is the atmosphere just marginal?

In short - it depends and every storm is unique. Some storms collapse when they touch land and some storms actually continue to intensify with the ‘brown ocean’ effect and/or great atmospheric conditions.

There is no black or white answer...you just have to closely monitor...
Last edited by jasons2k on Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:24 am, edited 2 times in total.
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jasons2k
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On another note - I must be getting old. Or something. The heat is starting to get to me. I’m having a hard time recovering after my runs this summer - like bad. Tired of this relentless 100-degree heat and no rain.

God I miss Florida.
Kingwood36
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Anyone see the icon model that turns it west into the gulf and keeps trucking along west almost ti texas?
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tireman4
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252
FXUS64 KHGX 271803
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
103 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2019

.AVIATION...
VFR FEW-BKN decks across the board through the early Wednesday
morning hours. Isolated showers beginning to pop up in the
afternoon heat so anticipate the occasional VCSH. Tempo MVFR
ceilings around sunrise once again. A weak boundary washing out
across the region tomorrow may provide the focus for a higher
areal coverage of Wednesday -TSRA once lower 90 surface
temperatures are achieved. This scenario will create a light and
variable wind field. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1053 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2019/

DISCUSSION...
850 MB temperatures have cooled slightly from yesterday but
considering the warm start to the day, afternoon temperatures look
to be similar to yesterday. A cumulus field is developing
areawide with some cirrus moving over the top, so cloud cover
might be a bit more prevalent than yesterday. Water vapor imagery
shows a weak upper level low spinning just off the coast.
Temperatures are off to a warm start so will leave the Heat
Advisory as configured with the higher heat index values expected
near the coast.

Two areas of concern with regard to precipitation this afternoon.
The first area of concern is over the north as a weak outflow
boundary trudges into the area. Not sure there will be much in the
way of activity but it certainly bears watch. The second area of
concern will be over Harris, Ft Bend and Galveston counties closer
to the periphery of the upper low over the western Gulf. HiRes
guidance is bullish with PoPs between 21-00z and this is also an
area with strong mid level forcing by both the NAM12 and GFS. Will
be watching this area closely as well. Some capping is noted in
the 85-70 MB layer and temperatures will need to reach 94-95
degrees to initiate convection. Too much uncertainty to go much
higher than 20 PoPs for now. 43

&&
Cromagnum
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I don't get it. Yesterday was a 50% chance of rain at my house and it didn't do anything. Today was basically 0 % chance and it's pouring.
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DoctorMu
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jasons wrote: Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:18 am
djmike wrote: Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:42 am Question: is Florida wide enough to tear apart any system or is their a chance it could reform in the Ngulf?
That’s not an easy question to answer. It depends on a number of factors, such as - what part of the peninsula will the storm cross? The most southern portion across the Everglades, which is mostly water anyway, or further up, where the Florida Ridge actually has some hills?

Storm motion - obviously the quicker it moves, the less influence the land will have.

Atmospheric environment - might be the biggest factor - is the storm strengthening or weakening as it approaches? Is it a large moist pocket with good outflow channels, or is the atmosphere just marginal?

In short - it depends and every storm is unique. Some storms collapse when they touch land and some storms actually continue to intensify with the ‘brown ocean’ effect and/or great atmospheric conditions.

There is no black or white answer...you just have to closely monitor...

"The Florida Alps?" between Lake City and I-4? They might be 200-300 ft high in altitude. "Sugarloaf Mountain" is 312 ft above sea level and NE of Orlando - that's the highest pt in the state. Plus, the state is potholed with lakes - Florida is like a giant, porous reef. The panhandle is probably hillier than the peninsula. A storm could easily reform on the other side in the GoM. Friction is modest on an E-W track.
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jasons2k
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Cromagnum wrote: Tue Aug 27, 2019 2:19 pm I don't get it. Yesterday was a 50% chance of rain at my house and it didn't do anything. Today was basically 0 % chance and it's pouring.
It also seems like the day shift is more optimistic/generous with rain chances than the overnight shift.
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jasons2k
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DoctorMu wrote: Tue Aug 27, 2019 3:11 pm
jasons wrote: Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:18 am
djmike wrote: Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:42 am Question: is Florida wide enough to tear apart any system or is their a chance it could reform in the Ngulf?
That’s not an easy question to answer. It depends on a number of factors, such as - what part of the peninsula will the storm cross? The most southern portion across the Everglades, which is mostly water anyway, or further up, where the Florida Ridge actually has some hills?

Storm motion - obviously the quicker it moves, the less influence the land will have.

Atmospheric environment - might be the biggest factor - is the storm strengthening or weakening as it approaches? Is it a large moist pocket with good outflow channels, or is the atmosphere just marginal?

In short - it depends and every storm is unique. Some storms collapse when they touch land and some storms actually continue to intensify with the ‘brown ocean’ effect and/or great atmospheric conditions.

There is no black or white answer...you just have to closely monitor...

"The Florida Alps?" between Lake City and I-4? They might be 200-300 ft high in altitude. "Sugarloaf Mountain" is 312 ft above sea level and NE of Orlando - that's the highest pt in the state. Plus, the state is potholed with lakes - Florida is like a giant, porous reef. The panhandle is probably hillier than the peninsula. A storm could easily reform on the other side in the GoM. Friction is modest on an E-W track.
It is modest relative to other places, like “Shredderola” especially, but It’s enough to make a difference. For example, a trek from Miami to Naples would weaken less than a trek from Vero Beach to Clearwater, all else being equal.

I am a Florida native ;-)
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tireman4
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233
FXUS64 KHGX 272045
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
345 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2019

.NEAR Term...Showers and thunderstorms developed earlier this
afternoon and will likely persist through 00z before quickly
ending with the loss of heating. Rain cooled air/outflows have
allowed temperatures to fall and heat index values are below 105
degrees. In areas away from the rain, sfc dew points have mixed
out and these areas are also below Advisory criteria. Have trimmed
the Heat Advisory back and will only include the immediate coast
and portions of the SW zones in the Advisory. Will end the Heat
Advisory at 7 PM. HiRes guidance did well today but models still
had some trouble getting the location correct. Have broad brushed
chance PoPs over the central zones. 43

.SHORT TERM...
Further north, an outflow boundary over East Texas will sag into
the NE zones and will serve as a focus for shra/tsra tonight and
will carry lowish PoPs in that area tonight. A weak cold front
will move into the area on Wednesday afternoon. Lower 500 mb
heights, slightly cooler 850 temperatures and scattered showers
should allow high temperatures to be a few degrees cooler and a
Heat Advisory is not expected to be needed. The highest heat index
values currently forecast on Wednesday range between 101 and 106
degrees. The weak front will probably sag into the central zones
before stalling but the front in combination with a weakness aloft
will allow the chance for showers and thunderstorms to persist
Wednesday night into Thursday. High temperatures on Wed/Thu will
be strongly dependent on cloud cover and when/if showers develop.

43

&&

.LONG TERM...
The front will hang around Thursday night into early Friday but
the boundary will become less defined. 500 heights remain low and
PW values remain around 2.00 inches so still expecting daytime
heating to trigger showers and storms. Labor Day weekend is
looking a bit better with a drying trend Sat/Sun. An inverted
upper trough will approach from the east Sunday night into Monday
and moisture levels increase once again. Could get some showers as
early as Sunday night but more likely on Mon/Tues as the upper
trough approaches the TX coast. 43

&&

..MARINE...
High pressure over the northern Gulf will maintain tranquil maritime
conditions throughout the remainder of the week. Slight to low end
chances for a passing shower or vicinity thunderstorm. Tomorrow`s
weak northern inland boundary working its way into northeastern
Texas will position backing high pressure over the eastern United
States. The orientation of this high will create a few days of
either light southerly or variable breezes over near 2 foot average
sea heights. A Labor Day weekend easterly fetch will push in a
higher swell and pick up seas by an average foot. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 77 96 77 97 76 / 20 30 30 30 10
Houston (IAH) 79 96 79 95 78 / 30 50 30 40 20
Galveston (GLS) 83 92 84 92 82 / 20 30 20 30 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following
zones: Brazoria Islands...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal
Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Galveston Island and Bolivar
Peninsula...Inland Jackson...Inland Matagorda...Matagorda
Islands.

High Rip Current Risk until midnight CDT tonight for the
following zones: Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$
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jasons2k
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Dang outflow/sea breeze has a void of no convection from I-10 near Katy arcing over past 290, 45, then past 59, to about the Liberty County line and then the rain resumes.

I sure hope this changes!!
javakah
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Ahhhh, finally getting a few minutes of soaking rain here in Fulshear. It's been ages since we had more than a few drops. Any approaching storm just kept falling apart right before getting here in the past weeks, so we'd only get a couple of drops.
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jasons2k
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The outflow has pushed through here now. No cumulus or towering cumulus to my south, either. One of the worst weather months ever!!
Kingwood36
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Anyone noticing that hook now to to west for Dorian? Once it crosses Florida...may enter the gulf
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