August 2019: Weak Cold Front/Rain Chances To End August
I've picked up .61 of an inch, this is more than i got the whole month of July.
Sweet. Squeaked out a good 0.5 inches at the house today. Hoped for more, but that will buy me some buffer for the heat wave coming.
Nothing here in Stafford, unless it rained whilst I was at work, though I do not work far from home. Skies did cloud up a bit after I got home from work, but no pretty little wet droplets fell from the sky.
The rainfall deficit is getting kinda outrageous in & around my immediate area of Western Harris County. I'm next to the South Mayde Creek & Morton Rd Site which has been stuck around 19.28 inches of rain for the entire year. You can compare that to the sites located in the East and Southeastern areas of the county who have received upwards of 40 inches of rain or more for 2019.
For illustrative purposes, and for illustrative rainfall purposes only, if I were to experience a Tax Day Flood event at my house tomorrow, as I did in APR 2016 when I received 12 inches of rain in 12 hours, I would still trail the Little Cedar Bayou & 8th St. Site in Southeastern Harris County by 11.44 inches for the year! In other words, I would need to experience two separate Tax Day Flood events in my neighborhood just to catch up with them for the year!
https://www.harriscountyfws.org/
We've been stuck in an overall very warm and dry weather pattern in my immediate area for the past couple of months. I know it's only natural for everyone to focus upon their neighborhood with respect to the radar when rain & thunderstorms are present. However, going forward I would like to call everyone's attention to the West/Southwestern part of Harris County generally just north of I-10 and east of Highway 99. You'll notice showers and thunderstorms have a consistent pattern of dissipating as they approach our area, regardless of the direction and regardless of rainfall coverage. For example, my house did not receive one drop of rain from Hurricane Barry in June and that's not an exaggeration.
Unfortunately, it appears our local hot & dry weather pattern will persist for the foreseeable future, along with our significant rainfall deficit with respect to other areas of the county.
For illustrative purposes, and for illustrative rainfall purposes only, if I were to experience a Tax Day Flood event at my house tomorrow, as I did in APR 2016 when I received 12 inches of rain in 12 hours, I would still trail the Little Cedar Bayou & 8th St. Site in Southeastern Harris County by 11.44 inches for the year! In other words, I would need to experience two separate Tax Day Flood events in my neighborhood just to catch up with them for the year!
https://www.harriscountyfws.org/
We've been stuck in an overall very warm and dry weather pattern in my immediate area for the past couple of months. I know it's only natural for everyone to focus upon their neighborhood with respect to the radar when rain & thunderstorms are present. However, going forward I would like to call everyone's attention to the West/Southwestern part of Harris County generally just north of I-10 and east of Highway 99. You'll notice showers and thunderstorms have a consistent pattern of dissipating as they approach our area, regardless of the direction and regardless of rainfall coverage. For example, my house did not receive one drop of rain from Hurricane Barry in June and that's not an exaggeration.
Unfortunately, it appears our local hot & dry weather pattern will persist for the foreseeable future, along with our significant rainfall deficit with respect to other areas of the county.
869MB:
I feel your pain. I’ve been there so many times. If I can offer a ray of hope, is that this won’t last forever. It will eventually balance out, hopefully not in the form of a flood.
I feel your pain. I’ve been there so many times. If I can offer a ray of hope, is that this won’t last forever. It will eventually balance out, hopefully not in the form of a flood.
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tireman4
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- Location: Humble, Texas
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 060919
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
419 AM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019
.SHORT TERM [Today Through Wednesday Night]...
WAA type showers developing over the coastal waters at this time
are expected to slowly move onshore through the rest of the morn-
ing hours. The bulk of the activity should remain south of I-10.
A bit of a break early this afternoon, then with daytime heating
and the seabreeze will help with another round of widely scatter-
ed development. Also of note for this afternoon, portions of the
CWFA could see some elevated heat index values just ahead of the
seabreeze. For locations along and south of the I-10 corridor...
heat indicies reach 105-109F.
Slightly less activity is expected Wed with the upper ridge axis
over the Four Corners starting to build east. 41
&&
.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...
With the upper ridge firmly in place over the Central Plains for
this time frame, it should be a fairly quiet weather period. Max
temps near 100F along with very low (to nil) POPs will be common
across SE TX the rest of the week/weekend. 41
&&
.MARINE...
With the low level ridging over the Central/Eastern Gulf this should
maintain the onshore flow 5-15kts/1-3ft with some slight variations
from southwest to south to southeast. Slightly stronger during the
overnight hours over the Gulf and then stronger over the bays during
the day. The seabreeze will be commonplace this week. Rain chances
today and Wednesday with scattered showers becoming more isolated.
By Thursday rain chances looking very slim over the Gulf waters.
45
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR 09Z with some patchy 1900-2200ft ceilings developing but so far
not at the TAF sites. Watching the Nighttime microphysics RGB these
clouds may be more focused over the southwestern areas possibly
expanding into IAH/HOU/SGR between 10-12z. After sunrise expect
skies to become scattered with CU and VFR. Isolated to widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms today mainly along and south of
a 66R-CXO line.
45
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 97 77 97 78 99 / 10 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 96 77 96 77 96 / 20 20 20 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 91 81 91 82 93 / 20 20 20 10 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
FXUS64 KHGX 060919
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
419 AM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019
.SHORT TERM [Today Through Wednesday Night]...
WAA type showers developing over the coastal waters at this time
are expected to slowly move onshore through the rest of the morn-
ing hours. The bulk of the activity should remain south of I-10.
A bit of a break early this afternoon, then with daytime heating
and the seabreeze will help with another round of widely scatter-
ed development. Also of note for this afternoon, portions of the
CWFA could see some elevated heat index values just ahead of the
seabreeze. For locations along and south of the I-10 corridor...
heat indicies reach 105-109F.
Slightly less activity is expected Wed with the upper ridge axis
over the Four Corners starting to build east. 41
&&
.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...
With the upper ridge firmly in place over the Central Plains for
this time frame, it should be a fairly quiet weather period. Max
temps near 100F along with very low (to nil) POPs will be common
across SE TX the rest of the week/weekend. 41
&&
.MARINE...
With the low level ridging over the Central/Eastern Gulf this should
maintain the onshore flow 5-15kts/1-3ft with some slight variations
from southwest to south to southeast. Slightly stronger during the
overnight hours over the Gulf and then stronger over the bays during
the day. The seabreeze will be commonplace this week. Rain chances
today and Wednesday with scattered showers becoming more isolated.
By Thursday rain chances looking very slim over the Gulf waters.
45
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR 09Z with some patchy 1900-2200ft ceilings developing but so far
not at the TAF sites. Watching the Nighttime microphysics RGB these
clouds may be more focused over the southwestern areas possibly
expanding into IAH/HOU/SGR between 10-12z. After sunrise expect
skies to become scattered with CU and VFR. Isolated to widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms today mainly along and south of
a 66R-CXO line.
45
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 97 77 97 78 99 / 10 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 96 77 96 77 96 / 20 20 20 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 91 81 91 82 93 / 20 20 20 10 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
One last day before we get cut off. Good luck to those needing some rain.
Que Glen Frey: “The Heat is on” from the best decade ever!!
Que Glen Frey: “The Heat is on” from the best decade ever!!
I thought yesterday was the cutoff. Didn't realize today was a bonus day
Looked good and then poofed with the outflow boundary again. What's the deal with this occurrence this year? Seems like storms cant stay going more than an hour and then just vanish left and right.
A nice sea breeze approaching I-10. DFW has isolated showers stretching to Shreveport and drifting south. Would be nice to get one last shower before The Big Suck.
...but it's only a little over 3 weeks before college football season. We're headed north towards Mt. Rushmore and Minnesota in about 10 days...
After a high of 98, the sea breeze has passed without a drop. Sprinkler time again. Yuck.
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srainhoutx
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We actually had a shower this afternoon around 3:30 in NW Harris. Rain is a good thing!
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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It’s thundering here at my office on Grogan’s Mill. No rain though. Maybe something can still happen but it would have to be real soon. I’m less optimistic for chances at the house on the other side of 45.
There is one persistent thundershower is stationary in the area but the heaviest rains remain just outside of my subdivision this evening. So I've concluded that I'm probably going to end up well behind everyone else's rainfall totals by the end of the year. Like I illustrated before, it will take some fairly significant rainfall accumulations in my neighborhood just to catch up. Hopefully, we can get a more favorable widespread rainfall pattern by early or mid-September.
I was watching both the cells in your area and I was wondering/hoping you got some rain.
Yeah unfortunately close but no cigar - just a couple of sprinkles with very light rain for a minute or two. The story of 2019. I always tell my family if they ever want to get away from the rain just come over to my house.
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19615
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
Wednesday morning weather briefing from Jeff:
Southeast Texas has been on the eastern edge of a strong heat ridge of high pressure over the SW US into New Mexico for the last week. This ridge will move slowly eastward and anchor over the southern plains and TX resulting in very warm early August temperatures over the region.
Isolated showers near the coast this morning will develop inland along the seabreeze front into the afternoon hours with most activity along and south of US 59. Upper level ridge begins to build over the area today into Thursday and this should reduce rain chances from the past few days.
Forecast through the weekend into early next week will be a temperature and heat index forecast with rain chances very low (less than 10%). Looks like 100’s will certainly be possible across the Brazos Valley and maybe as far east as I-45 and north of I-10 this weekend as the ridge aloft gains a foothold on the region with upper 90’s elsewhere. Afternoon dewpoints will mix out some north of I-10 helping to curb heat index values in the 103-108 range while areas south of I-10 with the southerly flow off the Gulf will have a harder time mixing out the low lever moisture. Thus heat index values of 105-110 will be possible. In fact, there is a 70% chance of IAH exceeding a heat index of 105 or greater Sat-Tues and a greater than 45% chance of exceeding 108 Sun-Tues.
Overnight low temperatures will be in the upper 70’s to lower 80’s which will not allow much cooling during the overnight hours. Along the coast overnight lows in the low to mid 80’s will be possible.
The ridge may begin to break down by the middle of next week allowing a weak boundary and higher moisture levels to approach from the ENE/E and this will be the point…about a week from today…where rain chance may come back into the forecast.
In addition to the heat, a lack of widespread rainfall over the last several weeks is starting to effect vegetation health and increasing wildfire risks. KBDI values range from 500-700 over the region indicating that ground moisture is starting to lack and fine fuels starting to dry, especially north of I-10 and west of I-45. With more hot and mostly dry weather expect over the next 5-7 days a continued deterioration of fine fuels is likely allowing more favorable fire conditions. Currently burn bans are in effect for Walker and Colorado Counties.
Southeast Texas has been on the eastern edge of a strong heat ridge of high pressure over the SW US into New Mexico for the last week. This ridge will move slowly eastward and anchor over the southern plains and TX resulting in very warm early August temperatures over the region.
Isolated showers near the coast this morning will develop inland along the seabreeze front into the afternoon hours with most activity along and south of US 59. Upper level ridge begins to build over the area today into Thursday and this should reduce rain chances from the past few days.
Forecast through the weekend into early next week will be a temperature and heat index forecast with rain chances very low (less than 10%). Looks like 100’s will certainly be possible across the Brazos Valley and maybe as far east as I-45 and north of I-10 this weekend as the ridge aloft gains a foothold on the region with upper 90’s elsewhere. Afternoon dewpoints will mix out some north of I-10 helping to curb heat index values in the 103-108 range while areas south of I-10 with the southerly flow off the Gulf will have a harder time mixing out the low lever moisture. Thus heat index values of 105-110 will be possible. In fact, there is a 70% chance of IAH exceeding a heat index of 105 or greater Sat-Tues and a greater than 45% chance of exceeding 108 Sun-Tues.
Overnight low temperatures will be in the upper 70’s to lower 80’s which will not allow much cooling during the overnight hours. Along the coast overnight lows in the low to mid 80’s will be possible.
The ridge may begin to break down by the middle of next week allowing a weak boundary and higher moisture levels to approach from the ENE/E and this will be the point…about a week from today…where rain chance may come back into the forecast.
In addition to the heat, a lack of widespread rainfall over the last several weeks is starting to effect vegetation health and increasing wildfire risks. KBDI values range from 500-700 over the region indicating that ground moisture is starting to lack and fine fuels starting to dry, especially north of I-10 and west of I-45. With more hot and mostly dry weather expect over the next 5-7 days a continued deterioration of fine fuels is likely allowing more favorable fire conditions. Currently burn bans are in effect for Walker and Colorado Counties.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity