August 2019: Weak Cold Front/Rain Chances To End August

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Cromagnum
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Yards only really need about an inch of rain per week. We don't need a hurricane dude.
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srainhoutx
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aunneste wrote: Sat Aug 03, 2019 5:01 pm Harvey's issues were mostly a matter of Greater Houston's poor, sprawled out design. Had the area been a real dense and concentrated metro like NYC or the urban areas of Europe, there would not have been near the amount of devastation.

Meanwhile, the power was still on throughout that epic tempest. All you had to do was stock up, then hit up Neflix, YouTube, CrunchyRoll, etc that entire week while lots and lots of records were broken.

Way better than boring droughts that ruin the landscape. I'm sure you all agree, hence the lamenting every time the typical summer storms fail to hit the house.
BlueJay wrote: Fri Aug 02, 2019 5:11 pm Let us not forget:

With Harvey, an estimated 13 million people were affected, nearly 135,000 homes damaged or destroyed in the historic flooding, and up to a million cars were wrecked. The death toll is at 88. (Sep 7, 2018)
jasons wrote: Fri Aug 02, 2019 5:58 pm You would take an encore? Do you realize how close we came to losing the Barker dam?? If Harvey had not made that jog east and nailed Beaumont, we could have had a tsunami rolling down Buffalo Bayou.

We were much closer to that ‘worse case’ than what is widely reported or what most people realize. The death toll would have been horrendous, among other things.

Sorry, not many comments rile me up but this one does. Pretty insensitive if you ask me.
Cromagnum wrote: Fri Aug 02, 2019 7:27 pmWow, what a troll.
Hey aunneste. Srain's in the house. Do you remember your very first post that I did not approve before you started on your monsoon diatribe? You thought long and hard about your response to these post and edited exactly what you would say. Perhaps it is best that you step back from your lame attempt at trolling. I've lived in the Houston Metro for 60+ years. I suggest you tread lightly. There are multiple venues you may find across the internet that will appreciate your stance/posts. This venue is not one of them. ;)
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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aunneste
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srainhoutx wrote: Sat Aug 03, 2019 5:37 pmHey aunneste. Srain's in the house. Do you remember your very first post that I did not approve before you started on your monsoon diatribe? You thought long and hard about your response to these post and edited exactly what you would say. Perhaps it is best that you step back from your lame attempt at trolling. I've lived in the Houston Metro for 60+ years. I suggest you tread lightly. There are multiple venues you may find across the internet that will appreciate your stance/posts. This venue is not one of them. ;)
While my postings may have been contrarian and harsh on tread, the facts covered still stand. I know that there will be disagreement, but it doesn't necessarily imply trolling.
Andrew
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Scattered storms west of town have been active tonight. The HRRR shows a good bit of moisture present on Sunday too before the heat really kicks in next week.
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Cromagnum
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Hope this rowdy area to the South stays strong and keeps marching north.
Cromagnum
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And once again...dead at my door step. Time to drag out the damned hoses again...
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DoctorMu
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Finally. A downpour. 1.25 in IMBY so far. More rain than the total we've had since the summer solstice.

Wish I had mowed the back last night...but that's why I drove a piece to get a deal on a Cub Cadet walk behind. It's a beast.
Cpv17
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Nothing again down here in central Wharton County.
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jasons2k
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Nothing here yesterday or today either.
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jasons2k
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From the NWS AFD: "West/northwest parts of the CWA may see their first triple digit highs of the summer going into the second half of the week and into the weekend."

Made me chuckle. I hit 100F back on July 18.
Cromagnum
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aunneste wrote: Sun Aug 04, 2019 7:26 pm Welp, judging from the comments, it's obvious that these pop-up thunderstorms are failing to deliver. Perhaps we do need the hurricane after all. Or at least a tropical storm/wave.
Your schtick was already misplaced, but now it's gotten old.
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I see that Channel 13 has a “Cool Front?” affixed to their forecast for Wednesday, Aug. 14, with winds switching to the west and then north (link below). Wouldn’t that be something for mid-August. Anyone else seeing indications of this in the models?

https://abc13.com/weather/
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Katdaddy
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A few more scattered showers and thunderstorms across SE TX today before drier weather begins to arrive tomorrow and Wednesday which will last through the weekend. By Thursday high temps will be in the upper 90s and some areas could reach 100F Friday through next Sunday.

The tropics remain very quiet and no development is expected during the next 5 days.
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srainhoutx
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It looks like the hottest weather of the Summer Season is upon us beginning later this week. The guidance is indicating a strong sub tropical upper ridge becomes anchored over Texas by the weekend and likely will not loose its grip until sometime around the 11th or 12th. Temperatures have the best chance of hitting 100F for actual temperatures and heat indices very well could achieve Heat Advisory status. As the upper ridge builds, rain chance look to dwindle.

The tropical weather has remained very quiet and that likely will continue for the next couple of weeks. As we near August 20th, climatology rapidly increases regarding the chances for tropical development into mid September. Fingers crossed we can get through the next 45 to 50 days or so without any tropical mischief brewing in our part of the Gulf or Western Caribbean Sea.
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Cromagnum
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Looks like I'll be watering the hell out of my yard this week since I've missed every patch of rain to blow through this week. The pressure cook is about to be on unfortunately.
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jasons2k
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Cromagnum wrote: Mon Aug 05, 2019 9:04 am Looks like I'll be watering the hell out of my yard this week since I've missed every patch of rain to blow through this week. The pressure cook is about to be on unfortunately.
It’s very humid and tropical today. We’re getting some good sun, too, to stir things up. Perhaps the weather gods saved the best for last and you will some rain today. Fingers crossed for you!!
.
Cromagnum
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jasons wrote: Mon Aug 05, 2019 10:40 am
Cromagnum wrote: Mon Aug 05, 2019 9:04 am Looks like I'll be watering the hell out of my yard this week since I've missed every patch of rain to blow through this week. The pressure cook is about to be on unfortunately.
It’s very humid and tropical today. We’re getting some good sun, too, to stir things up. Perhaps the weather gods saved the best for last and you will some rain today. Fingers crossed for you!!
.
One can only hope but my backside is pretty sore from Lucy's football antics.
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 051456
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
956 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Current fcst is on track. Look for sct shra/tstms along the coast to
gradually expand inland with daytime heating and the seabreeze
today. Just insignificant tweaks to the grids for the morning
update based on latest trends/obs. 47

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 94 76 96 77 98 / 30 30 20 10 10
Houston (IAH) 94 78 94 79 96 / 50 20 20 10 20
Galveston (GLS) 92 82 91 83 91 / 40 20 20 20 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

VFR conditions will prevail across the area through the period.
The main concern will be isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms that pop up this afternoon, but coverage will be
less than yesterday. Activity dies down after sunset and TAF sites
will remain quiet overnight.

Fowler

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 257 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019/...

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Wednesday]...

Radar remains quieter this morning as drier air has moved in
behind yesterday`s shortwave. The drier air will lead to clearer
skies and slightly warmer temperatures this afternoon compared to
yesterday. Isolated showers will develop near and off the coast
around sunrise this morning, then drift inland this afternoon and
increase in coverage through the day. Activity dies down around
sunset with the loss of daytime heating. Temperatures overnight
will be very similar to the past few nights.

Fowler


.LONG TERM [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...

Will continue to show a decreasing trend in mainly daytime rain
chances Tuesday through Wednesday as moisture levels lower in
response to rising heights aloft. Models still have mid/upper
ridging building into the area from the west during the second
half of the week and continuing into the weekend resulting in a
drier/warmer pattern for a majority of the area. High temperatures
will have a decent chance to reach the century mark in parts of
our west and northwest counties, and we will probably need to keep
an eye on rising heat index values too. 42


.MARINE...

Generally light onshore winds through midweek and low seas.
Typical diurnal pattern of slightly stronger winds during the over
night hours is expected to continue. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are possible mainly during the daylight hours, but
coverage will be decreasing each day as drier air moves in. Winds
increase to 10 to 15 kts by the end of the week.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 95 76 96 77 98 / 30 20 20 10 10
Houston (IAH) 94 78 94 79 96 / 50 10 20 10 20
Galveston (GLS) 92 82 91 83 91 / 40 10 20 20 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$
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Texaspirate11
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The clouds look promising today, but I dont want a broken heart....
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Cromagnum
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Showers getting close to house but I'm seeing lots of outflow boundaries popping off of them like before...crossing fingers.
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