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Nice bit of rain and thunder down by the bay - am not complaining at all!

000
FXUS64 KHGX 292022
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
322 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2019

.SHORT TERM[Tonight through Tuesday]...
Moisture has increased today over SE Texas from the Gulf to
support widely scattered showers and a few storms mainly along
I-10 this afternoon. Most of this activity should move north to
northeast very slowly with outflow boundaries likely triggering
new storms. Like the last couple of days, showers and storms
should come to an end with the loss of day time heating. Before
storms do dissipate, a quick burst of rain will be possible. This
means a quick 1 inch of rain in under an hour but it will be short
lived. Gusty winds and lightning will also be possible.

Tomorrow looks like another good chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Looking at upper level analysis and water vapor
imagery, there is an upper level trough axis located over the
Midwest and southern Plains. This trough should push to the east and
southeast tonight into Tuesday. This will lower 500mb heights some
along with higher moisture over the region. Forecast leaned a bit
more on the wet WRF-ARW and GFS for tomorrow. Both models have had
some consistency with more widespread storms. Quite possible to get
a lobe of vorticity in the flow to rotate down into the area
tomorrow afternoon to help support convection. Like the last couple
of days, storms should produce some brief heavy rainfall of 1-2
inches in an hour but that will be it. Some gusty downburst winds
will be possible with lightning in the storms but any wind gusts
should not be more than 30 knots.

AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...
A few showers have formed west and southwest of KSGR to KLBX
embedded in an area of higher moisture. Temperatures are getting
up into the low 90s already so look for convection to become a bit
more widespread and form where there is stronger low level
convergence. TAFs feature VCTS for now until it becomes more
apparent where/when storms develop and how they evolve.

Tonight expect VFR ceilings for the most part but likely have a
band of MVFR ceilings develop from KCLL to KUTS in the morning
hours. There might be some IFR but will hit the MVFR ceilings for
now as that seems more likely.

Other issue for tomorrow will be convection. Some WRF runs show
more widespread activity like the GFS with others not being as
aggressive. Still time to figure out the details but again worth
watching trends in guidance for the next cycle or two of TAFs.

Overpeck

&&

.LONG TERM[Wednesday night through Monday]...
Really not much to discuss in the long term as area will remain
under southeast quadrant of strong mid/upper level high centered
over the southern/central Rockies. This will keep weak n-nely
upper flow across the area and a general return to more summer-
like weather late this week and into the weekend. Main difference
between the operational GFS and ECMWF is with rain chances on
Thursday as Euro is much more aggressive while GFS is mainly dry.
Have split the difference and went with chance wording Thu
afternoon mostly along two tiers of counties nearest the Gulf.
Otherwise, will see drier weather for the most part settle over
the area to end the week and this weekend. We could still see a
few afternoon showers/tstms, although most areas will remain hot
and dry.

Evans

&&

.MARINE...
A light to moderate S-SE flow will continue for the next several
days, along with scattered showers and thunderstorms as higher
moisture from the central Gulf moves into the region. After
midweek, expect winds will lessen although weak onshore flow is
expected through the weekend.

Evans

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 76 95 74 96 74 / 20 20 10 10 0
Houston (IAH) 77 93 75 93 75 / 20 60 20 40 10
Galveston (GLS) 83 88 80 88 80 / 10 40 20 40 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

We are currently enjoying a lovely afternoon thunder shower!

Getting some rain here in Stafford! Two days in a row! Yay!

This storm over the last 90 minutes dropped 1.04 inches in Magnolia.

I’ve noticed the past couple days these storms are really taking off once they get north of 10. It’s mostly just been some light showers south of there.

FINALLY! Heavy Rain in my backyard. The most rain since Barry!

srainhoutx wrote: ↑Mon Jul 29, 2019 5:45 pm FINALLY! Heavy Rain in my backyard. The most rain since Barry!

Man I'm so jealous I've gotten only .31 inches of rain this month fingers crossed for some today.

Last night on the news the forecast was for storms midmorning into the afternoon. The radar is quiet thoigh. The apps on my phone say this evening and tonight so maybe there is hope yet.

Just a trace up in the Brazos Valley.

Hoping the August cold front becomes a reality.

I’m surprised so far by the lack of activity on the radar. Its all in Louisiana at the moment. I bet by 3 or 4 it’ll start picking up though.

The NWS is directionally challenged today. The morning updated AFD was tough to wade through, but basically it’s wait-n-see if the storms to our east can build towards us...

I'm thinking we won't be lucky in the precip dept in my neck of the woods

https://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.ph ... R&loop=yes

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
520 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2019

TXZ213-227-237-238-313-338-302245-
Inland Brazoria TX-Coastal Harris TX-Inland Galveston TX-
Coastal Galveston TX-Inland Harris TX-Fort Bend TX-
520 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN GALVESTON...EASTERN
FORT BEND...NORTHEASTERN BRAZORIA AND SOUTH CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTIES
UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

At 520 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
northwestern Friendswood, moving southwest at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Pearland, western League City, Friendswood, Alvin, Webster, Manvel,
South Belt / Ellington, Clear Lake, Fresno, Greater Hobby Area,
Nassau Bay, Arcola, Brookside Village, Iowa Colony, Hillcrest,
Ellington Field, The Johnson Space Center and eastern Sienna
Plantation.

There's some backbuilding. I don't think the showers will extend past Navasota, but NW Harris Co. should see some rain.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 29, 2019 5:41 pm I’ve noticed the past couple days these storms are really taking off once they get north of 10. It’s mostly just been some light showers south of there.

I've been coming to the conclusion also that land-cover type can heavily affect the weather that is experienced. And it could be a huge factor in the summer rainfall frequency in the SE US vs Texas. The SE is pretty much uninterrupted forest, and even the open areas (i.e. marshland, beaches, etc) still have lots of water around. Contrast that with Texas, mostly open prairie land where the sun has uninterrupted access to the ground to dry things out.

Still not perfect, because historical data shows the more open land South of I-10 averages more rainfall than the more forested areas North (see: Bush IAH vs Hobby Airport).

lol We hit 100°F. I believe that's the first triple digit day for us.

MORE RAIN!!!!!

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Tue Jul 30, 2019 6:20 pm lol We hit 100°F. I believe that's the first triple digit day for us.

hopefully not a harbinger of Aug temps !

cooler air has arrived here in NW Harris, fingers crossed for rain

Raining heavy here in the Heights, we had 2 inches yesterday and now more rain today.