Wx Infinity Forums

A beautiful tropical sky this afternoon.

Yesterday I hit the jackpot. Had a tiny red spec on the radar parked on top my my house and rained itself out. I got a quick .50” of rain.

It's raining in Stafford! Woohoo! I saw the skies getting dark and the wind whipping up. Coming down at a good clip too.

Radar is lit up this morning.

On and off bursts of sideways rain down in Rosharon. Pretty good line moving off towards Alvin and Clear Lake.

Aunneste - would you mind including links and supportive sites with your analyses?

We had a "10 year drought" in Texas. Enhances wind shear and dry air from Texas and Mexico are the mechanisms related to the hurricane "drought" cited by NOAA and from my remembrance. Areas of the SE were unfortunately not under a trough, but suffered rain drought, particularly Georgia.

https://www.weather.gov/bro/hurrprep

https://weather.com/safety/hurricane/ne ... august2016

Picked up a quick well needed .60" of rain here in W League City.

Nothing but a sprinkle in my backyard.

we had a nice shower, but I looked at radar &thought, "Jason must be getting dumped on"

https://www.harriscountyfws.org/
https://www.harriscountyfws.org/GageDet ... v=rainfall
https://www.harriscountyfws.org/GageDet ... v=rainfall

some big discrepancies in short distances on the rain map, though

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Sun Jul 28, 2019 1:25 pm Aunneste - would you mind including links and supportive sites with your analyses?

Monthly mean precipitation is modified mainly by convective inhibition (CIN) rather than by convective available potential energy (CAPE) or by precipitable water. Excessive CIN is caused by surface dryness and warming at 700 hPa, leading to precipitation deficits on a monthly time scale. While the dewpoint temperature and thermodynamics at the surface are greatly affected by the soil moisture, the temperature at 700 hPa was found to be statistically independent of the surface dewpoint temperature since the 700-hPa temperature represents free-atmospheric processes.
https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/1 ... JCLI2946.1

Some of the results in this section merit further comment. First, subsidence is enhanced in Texas when the influx of diabatically heated particles is dominant, but the elevation of Tlt is caused by the latter rather than the former. This process has been ignored in the previous studies of the 1980 and 1998 droughts that strongly affected Texas. Anticyclonic circulations in the upper troposphere have been assumed to trigger drought by serving as a block to cyclonic activity from the Pacific by displacing storm tracks north of the United States–Canadian border and/or by reducing low-level moisture by interfering with the influx of moist air from the Gulf of Mexico into the Great Plains (Namias 1982). This study finds that anomalous circulations associated with the upper-tropospheric anticyclone induce increased transport of warm air from the elevated terrain into Texas, having a significant impact on initiating and maintaining warm season droughts in Texas by increasing CIN.
https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/2010JCLI2947.1

But it’s not only luck that has been saving our coastlines from major hurricane damage. Over the past 10 years, there has tended to be an area of stronger-than-normal low pressure over the East Coast at the mid-levels of the atmosphere (about 18,000-feet high) during hurricane season.

This is an important feature because the winds at these levels steer hurricanes and determine the final path they take. Winds around this low pressure area help to push storms toward the north where they are picked up by the jet stream and carried away from the United States and out to sea.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/cap ... 284bbe5b84

Studies have found that when the NAO is negative, as it is now (Figure 1, above), it can worsen an ongoing summer drought in South Texas. Overall, significantly different ridge/trough patterns develop over North America, depending on the combined phase of ENSO and the NAO. Specifically, winters with El Niño/NAO+ conditions feature positive height anomalies (ridging) over the Great Lakes region, while negative height anomalies troughing) occur from Alaska’s Aleutian Islands to the west coast of North America. This contrasts with the large-scale flow observed in El Niño/NAO– winters, which are characterized by ridging over the western third of North America. The NAO may be an important modulating feature on El Niño impacts in the southwestern United States, namely, variability of winter season precipitation totals.
https://www.weather.gov/bro/2009event_heatwavereasons

Nice bit of rain and thunder down by the bay - am not complaining at all!

000
FXUS64 KHGX 292022
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
322 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2019

.SHORT TERM[Tonight through Tuesday]...
Moisture has increased today over SE Texas from the Gulf to
support widely scattered showers and a few storms mainly along
I-10 this afternoon. Most of this activity should move north to
northeast very slowly with outflow boundaries likely triggering
new storms. Like the last couple of days, showers and storms
should come to an end with the loss of day time heating. Before
storms do dissipate, a quick burst of rain will be possible. This
means a quick 1 inch of rain in under an hour but it will be short
lived. Gusty winds and lightning will also be possible.

Tomorrow looks like another good chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Looking at upper level analysis and water vapor
imagery, there is an upper level trough axis located over the
Midwest and southern Plains. This trough should push to the east and
southeast tonight into Tuesday. This will lower 500mb heights some
along with higher moisture over the region. Forecast leaned a bit
more on the wet WRF-ARW and GFS for tomorrow. Both models have had
some consistency with more widespread storms. Quite possible to get
a lobe of vorticity in the flow to rotate down into the area
tomorrow afternoon to help support convection. Like the last couple
of days, storms should produce some brief heavy rainfall of 1-2
inches in an hour but that will be it. Some gusty downburst winds
will be possible with lightning in the storms but any wind gusts
should not be more than 30 knots.

AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...
A few showers have formed west and southwest of KSGR to KLBX
embedded in an area of higher moisture. Temperatures are getting
up into the low 90s already so look for convection to become a bit
more widespread and form where there is stronger low level
convergence. TAFs feature VCTS for now until it becomes more
apparent where/when storms develop and how they evolve.

Tonight expect VFR ceilings for the most part but likely have a
band of MVFR ceilings develop from KCLL to KUTS in the morning
hours. There might be some IFR but will hit the MVFR ceilings for
now as that seems more likely.

Other issue for tomorrow will be convection. Some WRF runs show
more widespread activity like the GFS with others not being as
aggressive. Still time to figure out the details but again worth
watching trends in guidance for the next cycle or two of TAFs.

Overpeck

&&

.LONG TERM[Wednesday night through Monday]...
Really not much to discuss in the long term as area will remain
under southeast quadrant of strong mid/upper level high centered
over the southern/central Rockies. This will keep weak n-nely
upper flow across the area and a general return to more summer-
like weather late this week and into the weekend. Main difference
between the operational GFS and ECMWF is with rain chances on
Thursday as Euro is much more aggressive while GFS is mainly dry.
Have split the difference and went with chance wording Thu
afternoon mostly along two tiers of counties nearest the Gulf.
Otherwise, will see drier weather for the most part settle over
the area to end the week and this weekend. We could still see a
few afternoon showers/tstms, although most areas will remain hot
and dry.

Evans

&&

.MARINE...
A light to moderate S-SE flow will continue for the next several
days, along with scattered showers and thunderstorms as higher
moisture from the central Gulf moves into the region. After
midweek, expect winds will lessen although weak onshore flow is
expected through the weekend.

Evans

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 76 95 74 96 74 / 20 20 10 10 0
Houston (IAH) 77 93 75 93 75 / 20 60 20 40 10
Galveston (GLS) 83 88 80 88 80 / 10 40 20 40 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

We are currently enjoying a lovely afternoon thunder shower!

Getting some rain here in Stafford! Two days in a row! Yay!

This storm over the last 90 minutes dropped 1.04 inches in Magnolia.

I’ve noticed the past couple days these storms are really taking off once they get north of 10. It’s mostly just been some light showers south of there.

FINALLY! Heavy Rain in my backyard. The most rain since Barry!

srainhoutx wrote: ↑Mon Jul 29, 2019 5:45 pm FINALLY! Heavy Rain in my backyard. The most rain since Barry!

Man I'm so jealous I've gotten only .31 inches of rain this month fingers crossed for some today.

Last night on the news the forecast was for storms midmorning into the afternoon. The radar is quiet thoigh. The apps on my phone say this evening and tonight so maybe there is hope yet.

Just a trace up in the Brazos Valley.

Hoping the August cold front becomes a reality.