00
FXUS64 KHGX 010842
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
342 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019
.SHORT TERM [Today Through Wednesday]...
GOES PW product shows values in the 1.6-1.9" range across northern
parts of the CWA tapering down to around 1.4" further south
closer to the coast and offshore. Starting to see a few returns
pop up on radar just north of the area...closer in proximity to
the inverted trof axis and to a circulation near the Arklatex. For
today, expect warmer temps with some iso/sct precip developing
inland with daytime heating and the seabreeze. Expect this to
dissipate soon after sunset with the loss of heating followed by a
mostly quiet overnight period.
A surge of deeper Gulf moisture is still forecast to make its way
northward into the area Tuesday and Wednesday bringing periods of
showers and embedded tstms. Jet streak will be moving up from
south TX on Tues which could enhance overall lift as parts of the
region become situated in the RRQ, but otherwise don`t see much of
a focusing mechanism for widespread heavy rains or significant wx
other than the typical localized heavy downpours that come w/ a
tropical airmass. 47
.LONG TERM [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...
Moisture levels decrease and and ridging builds in from the east
during this time period. Isolated daytime shra/tstm possible
during the daytime on the 4th, but don`t see much threatening the
nighttime firework shows as most, if not all, should be dissipated
by then. Otherwise...rising temps and even lower rain chances
Friday thru much of the the weekend. 47
&&
.MARINE...
Moderate southerly flow will persist today. Onshore flow further increases
tomorrow with sustained winds approaching SCEC criteria in the afternoon.
Period of SCEC conditions will occur through Thursday with increased
rip current risk possible. (In the coming days...any media messaging
the importance of swimming near a lifeguard and NOT at San Luis
Pass over the holiday would be much appreciated considering we
always seem to have some issues there on high beach attendance
days.) High pressure building over southeast Texas will bring
lighter winds on Friday through the weekend. Fowler
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail across the TAF sites today. Like the
past few days, isolated to scattered thunderstorm will form in the
afternoon hours which will bring localized lower CIGs and gusty,
erratic winds. Drier air along the coast may prevent activity from
forming near SGR, GLS, and LBX. The best chance for precipitation
comes between 18z to 00z as the sea breeze pushes inland. Fowler
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 89 73 90 73 89 / 40 10 50 20 50
Houston (IAH) 90 74 89 74 88 / 40 10 60 50 60
Galveston (GLS) 89 80 87 79 89 / 10 20 50 60 50
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
July 2019: Warming Trend/Slight Chances For Rain
srainhoutx wrote: ↑Sun Jun 30, 2019 3:11 pm I do not see the rain chances completely disappearing throughout the first week of July for our Region. The Bermuda/SE Ridge is not overly strong and with an onshore flow continuing into late next week, I believe we will have at least an isolated shot of heat of the day seabreeze showers/storms into next weekend. Beyond that, the MJO may come into play across the Western Atlantic Basin and the Gulf as mid/late July comes around.
Harris Co will see some rain after this week on a day to day basis. Unless we up in the Brazos Valley get easterlies or tropical mischief, the sea breeze in July/August hits a wall around Navasota (aka the AggieDome).
In the meantime, rain chances are good through Wednesday, maybe July 4th with the Gulf surge.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4471
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
00
FXUS64 KHGX 011824
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
124 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019
.DISCUSSION...
Updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions currently observed at all TAF sites. VRB to partly
cloudy skies with southerly wind flow at 5-10 KTS will prevail
through this evening. SHRA and iso TSRA have been developing along
the northern portions of the CWA, occasionally affecting KCLL and
KUTS during the past two hours of so. As daytime heating
continues to increase, expect SHRA/TSRA coverage and intensity to
increase along the central and northern portions of the local area
this afternoon through evening. TSRA are capable of producing
lower vis due to heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and VRB
winds of 10 KTS or more with gusts of around 25 KTS. SHRA could
affect the coastal TAF sites, but lower surface moisture should
keep the strongest activity more inland. VCTS and TEMPOs for TSRA
are in place for all TAF sites through around 02Z except KGLS and
KLBX. Most of the activity will dissipate after sunset, with
clear to partly cloudy skies and light VRB winds expected tonight
and overnight. Models are hinting at an increase in low level
moisture and SHRA activity along the waters and coastal regions
during the early morning hours Tuesday. A similar summertime
pattern can be expected Tuesday, with another round of SHRA/TSRA
developing throughout the afternoon hours. 24
&&
FXUS64 KHGX 011824
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
124 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019
.DISCUSSION...
Updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions currently observed at all TAF sites. VRB to partly
cloudy skies with southerly wind flow at 5-10 KTS will prevail
through this evening. SHRA and iso TSRA have been developing along
the northern portions of the CWA, occasionally affecting KCLL and
KUTS during the past two hours of so. As daytime heating
continues to increase, expect SHRA/TSRA coverage and intensity to
increase along the central and northern portions of the local area
this afternoon through evening. TSRA are capable of producing
lower vis due to heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and VRB
winds of 10 KTS or more with gusts of around 25 KTS. SHRA could
affect the coastal TAF sites, but lower surface moisture should
keep the strongest activity more inland. VCTS and TEMPOs for TSRA
are in place for all TAF sites through around 02Z except KGLS and
KLBX. Most of the activity will dissipate after sunset, with
clear to partly cloudy skies and light VRB winds expected tonight
and overnight. Models are hinting at an increase in low level
moisture and SHRA activity along the waters and coastal regions
during the early morning hours Tuesday. A similar summertime
pattern can be expected Tuesday, with another round of SHRA/TSRA
developing throughout the afternoon hours. 24
&&
tireman4 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 01, 2019 2:00 pm 00
FXUS64 KHGX 011824
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
124 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019
.DISCUSSION...
Updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions currently observed at all TAF sites. VRB to partly
cloudy skies with southerly wind flow at 5-10 KTS will prevail
through this evening. SHRA and iso TSRA have been developing along
the northern portions of the CWA, occasionally affecting KCLL and
KUTS during the past two hours of so. As daytime heating
continues to increase, expect SHRA/TSRA coverage and intensity to
increase along the central and northern portions of the local area
this afternoon through evening. TSRA are capable of producing
lower vis due to heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and VRB
winds of 10 KTS or more with gusts of around 25 KTS. SHRA could
affect the coastal TAF sites, but lower surface moisture should
keep the strongest activity more inland. VCTS and TEMPOs for TSRA
are in place for all TAF sites through around 02Z except KGLS and
KLBX. Most of the activity will dissipate after sunset, with
clear to partly cloudy skies and light VRB winds expected tonight
and overnight. Models are hinting at an increase in low level
moisture and SHRA activity along the waters and coastal regions
during the early morning hours Tuesday. A similar summertime
pattern can be expected Tuesday, with another round of SHRA/TSRA
developing throughout the afternoon hours. 24
&&
We had another shower of 0.32 inches. The reservoirs and trees in CLL have never been happier heading into July.
An amazing 20.32 Inches of rain IMBY for May and June...so we're in good shape up here in the NW for the usual dry weather of July and August. I'm still pulling for a lot of overcast days until SEC season! haha
-
MontgomeryCoWx
- Posts: 2356
- Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
- Location: Weimar, TX
- Contact:
DoctorMu wrote: ↑Mon Jul 01, 2019 3:04 pmtireman4 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 01, 2019 2:00 pm 00
FXUS64 KHGX 011824
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
124 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019
.DISCUSSION...
Updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions currently observed at all TAF sites. VRB to partly
cloudy skies with southerly wind flow at 5-10 KTS will prevail
through this evening. SHRA and iso TSRA have been developing along
the northern portions of the CWA, occasionally affecting KCLL and
KUTS during the past two hours of so. As daytime heating
continues to increase, expect SHRA/TSRA coverage and intensity to
increase along the central and northern portions of the local area
this afternoon through evening. TSRA are capable of producing
lower vis due to heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and VRB
winds of 10 KTS or more with gusts of around 25 KTS. SHRA could
affect the coastal TAF sites, but lower surface moisture should
keep the strongest activity more inland. VCTS and TEMPOs for TSRA
are in place for all TAF sites through around 02Z except KGLS and
KLBX. Most of the activity will dissipate after sunset, with
clear to partly cloudy skies and light VRB winds expected tonight
and overnight. Models are hinting at an increase in low level
moisture and SHRA activity along the waters and coastal regions
during the early morning hours Tuesday. A similar summertime
pattern can be expected Tuesday, with another round of SHRA/TSRA
developing throughout the afternoon hours. 24
&&
We had another shower of 0.32 inches. The reservoirs and trees in CLL have never been happier heading into July.
An amazing 20.32 Inches of rain IMBY for May and June...so we're in good shape up here in the NW for the usual dry weather of July and August. I'm still pulling for a lot of overcast days until SEC season! haha
Amen. You should crash our tailgate and we can have a wxinfinity tailgate!
Team #NeverSummer
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4471
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 020947
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
447 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2019
.SHORT TERM [Today Through Thursday]...
Isolated/widely scattered showers are continuing to make their way
onshore this morning as the slightly deeper moisture that has been
lingering over the western Gulf begins to move north. We`ll likely
see an increase in coverage by this afternoon with daytime heating
and perhaps some enhanced lift as rather well-defined/-progged jet
streak approaches from the S/SW. However, still not seeing much by
way of a low-level focus (except maybe the seabreeze) at this time
so not too confident with the idea of widespread heavy rain/severe
weather for this afternoon. But given this tropical airmass moving
into the region, locally heavy downpours are possible. Activity is
expected to decrease late this evening (with the loss of heating).
Weds should be a close repeat of today with the lingering tropical
moisture and a favorable position of the jet streak aloft. However
lingering outflow/meso boundaries could be more of a factor.
Things will begin to dry out by Weds night as the jet streak/deep-
er moisture moves out to the NNE and high pressure builds in from
the east. 41
&&
.LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...
Not a lot of issues expected as high pressure deepens across the
region and holds in place. Very low/nil POPs as the airmass dries
and temperatures at/near seasonal norms prevailing (i.e. Highs in
the lower to mid 90s inland...around 90 at the coast. Lows in the
mid 70s inland and around 80 at the coast.) Will reintroduce some
low POPs (mainly daytime) for the start of next week. 41
&&
.AVIATION...
Patchy MVFR ceilings/visibility developing along a line from KBYY to
KTME-KCXO and southeastward but this will be expanding northwest
into the CLL area before sunrise. Scattered showers early this
morning transitioning into scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms by late morning/early afternoon. Daytime heating
should really get the coverage going by 18z. Rich PW air spreading
into the region and upper low with very favorable lift taking place
across SETX this afternoon. Gusty winds/reduced visibility of 1 mile
likely in the stronger downpours. Loss of heating should lead to a
decrease in coverage around 01z and then expect the very moist
airmass over the area to lead to redevelopment after midnight along
the coast and spreading inland to the KIAH/KHOU areas by 12z/Wed.
45
&&
.MARINE...
Persistent onshore flow with an increase in moisture today so
expecting widespread showers and thunderstorms over the Gulf waters
this morning spreading inland late morning/afternoon. Southerly
winds 8-15 knots should be the norm through most of the week with a
gradual weakening trend Friday and then lighter winds through the
weekend. May see brief landbreeze development near sunrise Friday-
Sunday. Coverage of the showers and thunderstorms today and
Wednesday should diminish greatly Thursday as upper ridging takes
hold.
45
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 89 73 87 74 92 / 50 40 60 30 20
Houston (IAH) 89 75 90 76 93 / 70 50 60 30 20
Galveston (GLS) 88 79 88 80 91 / 60 40 50 20 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
FXUS64 KHGX 020947
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
447 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2019
.SHORT TERM [Today Through Thursday]...
Isolated/widely scattered showers are continuing to make their way
onshore this morning as the slightly deeper moisture that has been
lingering over the western Gulf begins to move north. We`ll likely
see an increase in coverage by this afternoon with daytime heating
and perhaps some enhanced lift as rather well-defined/-progged jet
streak approaches from the S/SW. However, still not seeing much by
way of a low-level focus (except maybe the seabreeze) at this time
so not too confident with the idea of widespread heavy rain/severe
weather for this afternoon. But given this tropical airmass moving
into the region, locally heavy downpours are possible. Activity is
expected to decrease late this evening (with the loss of heating).
Weds should be a close repeat of today with the lingering tropical
moisture and a favorable position of the jet streak aloft. However
lingering outflow/meso boundaries could be more of a factor.
Things will begin to dry out by Weds night as the jet streak/deep-
er moisture moves out to the NNE and high pressure builds in from
the east. 41
&&
.LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...
Not a lot of issues expected as high pressure deepens across the
region and holds in place. Very low/nil POPs as the airmass dries
and temperatures at/near seasonal norms prevailing (i.e. Highs in
the lower to mid 90s inland...around 90 at the coast. Lows in the
mid 70s inland and around 80 at the coast.) Will reintroduce some
low POPs (mainly daytime) for the start of next week. 41
&&
.AVIATION...
Patchy MVFR ceilings/visibility developing along a line from KBYY to
KTME-KCXO and southeastward but this will be expanding northwest
into the CLL area before sunrise. Scattered showers early this
morning transitioning into scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms by late morning/early afternoon. Daytime heating
should really get the coverage going by 18z. Rich PW air spreading
into the region and upper low with very favorable lift taking place
across SETX this afternoon. Gusty winds/reduced visibility of 1 mile
likely in the stronger downpours. Loss of heating should lead to a
decrease in coverage around 01z and then expect the very moist
airmass over the area to lead to redevelopment after midnight along
the coast and spreading inland to the KIAH/KHOU areas by 12z/Wed.
45
&&
.MARINE...
Persistent onshore flow with an increase in moisture today so
expecting widespread showers and thunderstorms over the Gulf waters
this morning spreading inland late morning/afternoon. Southerly
winds 8-15 knots should be the norm through most of the week with a
gradual weakening trend Friday and then lighter winds through the
weekend. May see brief landbreeze development near sunrise Friday-
Sunday. Coverage of the showers and thunderstorms today and
Wednesday should diminish greatly Thursday as upper ridging takes
hold.
45
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 89 73 87 74 92 / 50 40 60 30 20
Houston (IAH) 89 75 90 76 93 / 70 50 60 30 20
Galveston (GLS) 88 79 88 80 91 / 60 40 50 20 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
-
MontgomeryCoWx
- Posts: 2356
- Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
- Location: Weimar, TX
- Contact:
The countdown is officially on to Fall/Winter! We are officially in the 2nd half of the year.
Team #NeverSummer
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4471
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 021555
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1055 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2019
.UPDATE...
Still looking at increasing shower and thunderstorm coverage for the
rest of the morning and on through the afternoon hours. Deep tropical
moisture in the western Gulf waters continues to work its way northward
and will help to enhance the area`s rain chances both today and tomorrow.
Locally heavy downpours are possible. 42
&&
FXUS64 KHGX 021555
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1055 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2019
.UPDATE...
Still looking at increasing shower and thunderstorm coverage for the
rest of the morning and on through the afternoon hours. Deep tropical
moisture in the western Gulf waters continues to work its way northward
and will help to enhance the area`s rain chances both today and tomorrow.
Locally heavy downpours are possible. 42
&&
Lots of tropical clouds overhead now.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4471
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 021802
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
102 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2019
.DISCUSSION...
Updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR to VFR conditions currently observed across all TAF sites.
Southerly wind flow at 5-10 kts prevails. Scattered SHRA/TSRA
currently moving over the Gulf waters and southern half of the CWA
will continue to increase in coverage and intensity as the
afternoon progresses. Strong TS will be capable of producing
strong gusty winds of 20 kts or more, lightning, and hail. Heavy
rainfall could also result in MVFR vis/cigs at times. TSRA
activity is expected to dissipate after 01Z. Tranquil weather
conditions with light and VRB winds can be expected tonight with
SHRA moving over the local waters into KGLS/KLBX early in the
morning Wednesday. SHRA/TSRA expected to develop over the southern
and central portions of the CWA Wednesday morning/afternoon.
Winds will increase again Wednesday morning, particularly along
the waters and coastal sites. 24
FXUS64 KHGX 021802
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
102 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2019
.DISCUSSION...
Updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR to VFR conditions currently observed across all TAF sites.
Southerly wind flow at 5-10 kts prevails. Scattered SHRA/TSRA
currently moving over the Gulf waters and southern half of the CWA
will continue to increase in coverage and intensity as the
afternoon progresses. Strong TS will be capable of producing
strong gusty winds of 20 kts or more, lightning, and hail. Heavy
rainfall could also result in MVFR vis/cigs at times. TSRA
activity is expected to dissipate after 01Z. Tranquil weather
conditions with light and VRB winds can be expected tonight with
SHRA moving over the local waters into KGLS/KLBX early in the
morning Wednesday. SHRA/TSRA expected to develop over the southern
and central portions of the CWA Wednesday morning/afternoon.
Winds will increase again Wednesday morning, particularly along
the waters and coastal sites. 24
Total Eclipse today for South America
http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/ ... 48&y=10848
http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/ ... 48&y=10848
http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/ ... 48&y=10848
http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/ ... 48&y=10848
Trace...
Looks like the tropical blob is going more into LA than Texas. Will we miss the bulk to the rain today? News had been saying Wed would be the better heavier chance. Just wondering if we dodged a bullet.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19615
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
The WPC has issued a Slight Risk and Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall today along our Coastal tier of Counties extending into Beaumont and SW Louisiana.
- Attachments
-
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4471
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 031000
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
500 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019
.SHORT TERM [Today Through Thursday]...
Radar has been quiet overnight/so far early this morning, but per
short-range models, this is expected to change later this morning
as another disturbance moves in from the Gulf. This feature comb-
ined with a very moist profile and sufficient instability will be
enough to produce scattered/numerous activity today. The best QPF
and POPs should start at the coast (see WPCs Day 1 Excessive Rain
Outlook) late this morning/early afternoon...then moving into the
rest of the CWA late this afternoon/early evening. However, we`re
still not seeing much by way of a surface boundary for the storms
to focus on at present so development should be fairly widespread
as the day progresses. Heavy rainfall/flooding issues will likely
be very localized.
Activity will be on the decrease later this evening with the loss
of daytime heating. Will maintain low POPs for Thur...higher over
the NW counties given the slow trek of the upper level trof/shear
axis from Central TX to the NE. Best rain chances should be main-
ly during the daytime. 41
&&
.LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...
Strong/deep ridging building over the region from the east will be
the primary weather feature for the extended forecast. Very low to
nil POPs will prevail along with warming temps thru the end of the
week and into the rest of the long holiday weekend. Will keep with
the return of very low (mainly diurnal seabreeze) rain chances for
the start of next week. 41
&&
.MARINE...
Southerly winds of 10 to 15 knots today increasing tonight to
around 15 knots and may have a period of few hours of 15 to 20
knots over the western waters...may need a brief SCEC. Showers and
thunderstorms should redevelop today over the Gulf waters on the
southern edge of rich moisture. The moisture diminishes
tonight/Thursday and rain chances drop off abruptly as the upper
ridging over the Gulf expands westward into the area. Much lighter
southerly winds over the weekend and early next week. As the
upper ridge overspreads the region it will leave a weakness over
the northeastern Gulf the middle of next week but weak to moderate
cyclonic upper flow should minimize any tropical development
there. Tropical wave moving off of Africa looks to be surrounded
by abundant Saharan dust and for that matter much of the MDR looks
to be covered in dust.
45
&&
.AVIATION...
Localized VLIFR ceilings at CXO/6R3 this morning as well as some
fog. This should be short lived and expect rapid improvement
possibly even before sunrise or just shortly after. Tropical
moisture (PW 2.0-2.2") draped over the area and with the upper shear
axis to the west will be watching for the speed max to move through
the area late this morning and afternoon giving additional lift for
the development of thunderstorms with more than enough moisture in
the profile. Will continue with the TEMPO TSRA conditions mainly in
the 17-21z window for the IAH/HOU/SGR terminals. Storms should
shift north throughout the afternoon but will need to keep an eye
out for redevelopment over the southwestern areas that may impact
SGR/HOU/LBX late afternoon. This evening skies clearing and this may
lead to some patchy fog or MVFR ceilings. Far fewer storms expected
Thursday morning.
45
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 88 75 92 75 94 / 60 30 20 10 10
Houston (IAH) 89 76 92 76 94 / 70 20 20 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 87 81 89 81 91 / 70 20 10 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
FXUS64 KHGX 031000
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
500 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019
.SHORT TERM [Today Through Thursday]...
Radar has been quiet overnight/so far early this morning, but per
short-range models, this is expected to change later this morning
as another disturbance moves in from the Gulf. This feature comb-
ined with a very moist profile and sufficient instability will be
enough to produce scattered/numerous activity today. The best QPF
and POPs should start at the coast (see WPCs Day 1 Excessive Rain
Outlook) late this morning/early afternoon...then moving into the
rest of the CWA late this afternoon/early evening. However, we`re
still not seeing much by way of a surface boundary for the storms
to focus on at present so development should be fairly widespread
as the day progresses. Heavy rainfall/flooding issues will likely
be very localized.
Activity will be on the decrease later this evening with the loss
of daytime heating. Will maintain low POPs for Thur...higher over
the NW counties given the slow trek of the upper level trof/shear
axis from Central TX to the NE. Best rain chances should be main-
ly during the daytime. 41
&&
.LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...
Strong/deep ridging building over the region from the east will be
the primary weather feature for the extended forecast. Very low to
nil POPs will prevail along with warming temps thru the end of the
week and into the rest of the long holiday weekend. Will keep with
the return of very low (mainly diurnal seabreeze) rain chances for
the start of next week. 41
&&
.MARINE...
Southerly winds of 10 to 15 knots today increasing tonight to
around 15 knots and may have a period of few hours of 15 to 20
knots over the western waters...may need a brief SCEC. Showers and
thunderstorms should redevelop today over the Gulf waters on the
southern edge of rich moisture. The moisture diminishes
tonight/Thursday and rain chances drop off abruptly as the upper
ridging over the Gulf expands westward into the area. Much lighter
southerly winds over the weekend and early next week. As the
upper ridge overspreads the region it will leave a weakness over
the northeastern Gulf the middle of next week but weak to moderate
cyclonic upper flow should minimize any tropical development
there. Tropical wave moving off of Africa looks to be surrounded
by abundant Saharan dust and for that matter much of the MDR looks
to be covered in dust.
45
&&
.AVIATION...
Localized VLIFR ceilings at CXO/6R3 this morning as well as some
fog. This should be short lived and expect rapid improvement
possibly even before sunrise or just shortly after. Tropical
moisture (PW 2.0-2.2") draped over the area and with the upper shear
axis to the west will be watching for the speed max to move through
the area late this morning and afternoon giving additional lift for
the development of thunderstorms with more than enough moisture in
the profile. Will continue with the TEMPO TSRA conditions mainly in
the 17-21z window for the IAH/HOU/SGR terminals. Storms should
shift north throughout the afternoon but will need to keep an eye
out for redevelopment over the southwestern areas that may impact
SGR/HOU/LBX late afternoon. This evening skies clearing and this may
lead to some patchy fog or MVFR ceilings. Far fewer storms expected
Thursday morning.
45
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 88 75 92 75 94 / 60 30 20 10 10
Houston (IAH) 89 76 92 76 94 / 70 20 20 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 87 81 89 81 91 / 70 20 10 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
Stupid question. What does CWA mean in the NWS discussions?
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)