July 2019: Warming Trend/Slight Chances For Rain

[srainhoutx]

PWAT measurements may be lower today, but the sky still looks juicy and tropical...

I actually had a brief tropical shower around 8:30.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 181548
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1048 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Mid to upper level ridge will continue to dominate the local
weather today with lower low level moisture content. PWs range
from 1.4 to 1.7 inches on the model and sounding data. The
highest PWs are expected to be located along the southern counties
in the morning moving northward across the central and northern
counties in the afternoon. Satellite imagery this morning does
show areas of cumulus clouds building across the southern and
northeastern portions of the CWA. A few light to moderate showers
currently noted on the radar, mainly over Brazoria county.

Although mid to upper level high pressure remains in place and
drier conditions are expected, sea breeze effects and diurnal
heating could provide some lift and develop isolated showers and
thunderstorms during the late morning and afternoon hours.
Activity, if any, would dissipate in the evening with the loss of
heating, remaining dry tonight. Increased the POPs mainly south
of I-10 for the the morning and included POPs in and around the
Harris, Liberty, Fort Bend, Montgomery counties for this
afternoon.

Elsewhere, another hot day can be expected. High temperatures
should range between the low and mid 90s this afternoon.
Localized areas could experience heat indices near heat advisory
criteria for an hour or two. Take extra care if you plan to work
or spend time outdoors.

24

[Cpv17]

The Euro has us getting several inches and the GFS barely anything. Which one to believe?

[Texaspirate11]

Still no rain by the bay....

I feel your pain. Hope you can get some showers down there!!

Had to water the grass again today...

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 181723
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1223 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019

.AVIATION...
Generally VFR conditions are expected through 06z. Moisture
profiles look a bit drier than yesterday but can`t rule out
a few showers or late aftn thunderstorm. COuld get a brief window
of MVFR/IFR ceilings toward KCLL after 09z with a hour or two of
MVFR ceilings at KIAH just after sunrise. Looks even drier on
Friday and did not mention VCSH for any of the terminals. 43

&&

[jasons2k]

Radar has less on it now than at lunchtime. That ridge must be exerting it’s influence now.

[Katdaddy]

Another hot mostly sunny SE TX day on the way however a change is on the way with an increase in thunderstorms beginning this weekend and into next week. In addition, the late July cool front still looks to arrive Tuesday-Wednesday of next week.

[tireman4]

High Temperatures Today

[tireman4]

081
FXUS64 KHGX 191116
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
616 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Low stratus and isolated patches of fog are cropping up across the
area this morning. Heaviest cloud cover is in the north, and
explicitly include an MVFR ceiling at CLL. MVFR also possible at
the I-45 terminals (fog at CXO, ceilings at others) but not enough
confidence to explicitly put in the TAFs. If it occurs, look for
it to be brief right around daybreak. After that, look for sky
cover to decrease into the afternoon, with bases rising above VFR
(though ceilings are unlikely anyway) and south winds picking up
to around 10 knots. Finally, look for something approximating
persistence overnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 337 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019/...

.DISCUSSION...

- Increasing thunderstorm chances through the weekend into early
next week.
- Change in upper level pattern will allow for a front to move
through the area Tuesday into Wednesday.




.SHORT TERM [Today and Tonight]...

Satellite and observations show mostly clear skies across
Southeast Texas underneath ridging, though there are a few flecks
of clouds at the 2000ish foot level. This will have little impact
on sensible weather at the surface, but may need to be accounted
for in aviation forecasts, along with some patchy fog in the usual
foggy spots. Radar indicates perhaps a nocturnal shower or two
over the Gulf, though most of the returns on radar look to be sea
spray instead.

Have spread a slight chance of sprinkles near the coast this
morning, just in case any marine showers drift onshore, but
largely think we`ll be looking at generally scattered clouds (or
less) thanks to the ridging in place, and precipitable water in
the 1.3 to 1.5 inch range. This should largely suppress rain
chances, but it`s hard to completely rule out a slight chance of
sprinkles or even an isolated shower/storm with a seabreeze
boundary and strong diurnal heating.

On the flip side, high dewpoints will keep low temperatures this
morning high for yet another day. This will provide a solid floor
from which to see strong heating into the afternoon. Inland, we
should see another day with highs in the low to middle 90s, closer
to 90 degrees at the coast. Of course, there is little surprise
that we will likely see heat indices rising above the century
mark today into the 100-105 range for most of the area.

Luchs


.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Friday]...

Thunderstorm chances increase over the weekend due to a couple of
factors. First higher moisture gets drawn up from the Gulf
Saturday into Sunday such that more scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible by Sunday. This also lines up with
when an inverted trough sneaks under the upper level ridge and
moves across the northern Gulf coast reaching the area late
Sunday. This also allows for lower 500mb heights over the area
along with slightly increased large scale ascent. While this is
happening, 500mb heights increase over the 4 Corners region into
the Great Basin. Sunday into Monday the pattern becomes more
amplified as the ridge increases.

By Monday night into Tuesday the upper level pattern becomes
amplified with the ridge over the Great Basin and a substantial
trough over the Great Lakes. This pattern should persist through
much of the week with NAEFS/ECMWF ensembles showing 500mb heights
in the 90th percentile associated with this ridge. Tuesday through
Thursday the trough axis extends from the Great Lakes all the way
into Texas creating a weakness in the ridging between the ridge
to the west and ridging over the western Atlantic. This also
allows for a front to move into the area Monday night and Tuesday.
This is also where we will go with higher PoPs for scattered
showers and storms along the frontal boundary. The forecast will
maintain thunderstorm chances through the rest of the week with
the front stalling off the coast and then dissipating. Higher
moisture pooled along the front in the Gulf then moves back north
later in the week thereby needing thunderstorm chances to
continue.

Overall the main impacts from storms next week will be typical
heavy rainfall, gusty winds and lightning. Storms should stay
below severe levels but would not be surprised at an isolated
strong/severe storm Sunday into Monday before the front arrives.
The main threat for a severe storm will be downburst winds as
freezing levels will be quite high limiting hail growth.

Overpeck


.MARINE...

Typical summertime conditions on the Bays and Gulf are expected at
least through the weekend. This is complete with daytime winds
closer to 10 knots during the day, drifting upwards to around 15
knots. This is right around the SCEC threshold, but with waves
expected to be around 3 feet or less, have opted against the
caution flag at this time.

At the beaches, Galveston Beach Patrol reports mainly moderate rip
currents, but an occasionally strong rip current is being
observed. As with the SCEC, will abstain from a rip current
statement at this time, but if Beach Patrol indicates conditions
are worsening, a statement may be issued.

Looking ahead, a weak cold front could enter the coastal waters
as we push towards the middle of next week.

Luchs

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 96 77 96 77 96 / 10 0 10 0 10
Houston (IAH) 94 79 93 78 93 / 20 10 20 10 30
Galveston (GLS) 90 82 90 82 90 / 20 20 20 10 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM...Overpeck
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Luchs

[srainhoutx]

Odds are increasing that we will see a rare July 'Cold' front arrive Tuesday into Wednesday. That front likely to stall somewhere near or just offshore and could bring rounds of showers and storms. Clouds, rain and light Northerly breezes should offer a reprieve from our typical mid to late July stagnant pattern.

[srainhoutx]

Midday Friday weather briefing from Jeff:

Weak front will approach and potentially move off the coast next week.

An unusual upper air pattern will develop across the US this weekend into next week with ridging developing across the western US and a strong downstream trough forming over the central plains into the eastern US. The result of this upper air pattern will be a rare summer front that will likely make it close to moving off the coast by the middle of next week. While widespread significant cooling is not expected, the increase in rainfall and cloud cover with the boundary will help reduce afternoon high temperatures into the upper 80’s and low 90’s. It is possible that convective outflows will help to push the boundary offshore by the middle of next week with a lowering of the humidity levels.

Tropical moisture will begin to surge into the area starting late Saturday and more likely Sunday and early next week. Expect an increase in showers and thunderstorms along the seabreeze Sunday and Monday and then more widespread storms Tues-Thurs as the front crawls into the region. With tropical moisture in place heavy rainfall will be possible, but at this time not expecting any potential for widespread flooding. Could see a few strong storms with gusty winds during the mid week period.

Area could briefly dry out some with activity moving toward the coastal areas or offshore by Thursday into Friday, but then moisture looks to move back into the area by next weekend with rain chances rising once again.

[tireman4]

146
FXUS64 KHGX 191713
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1213 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

.AVIATION...
Generally VFR conditions are expected this afternoon into tonight.
A mix of MVFR and potentially IFR ceilings will develop after 09z
and mainly affect northern TAF sites. An increase in moisture is
expected on Saturday and HiRes guidance supports a mention of
showers after 09z toward the coast. A few showers will be possible
over the southern TAF sites Saturday morning. 43

&&

[jasons2k]

More showers on the radar today than yesterday, even though today was supposed to be the driest day of all....go figure.

[DoctorMu]

Another hot mostly sunny SE TX day on the way however a change is on the way with an increase in thunderstorms beginning this weekend and into next week. In addition, the late July cool front still looks to arrive Tuesday-Wednesday of next week.

Some prog lows in the 60s on Tue, Wed night. I'll believe that when it happens!

Should be a refreshing and welcome knockdown of the DPs Models sniffed this out 2-3 days ago. Fingers crossed.

[Cpv17]

Well I see the Euro has cut back significantly on rainfall next week.. ugh!!

[unome]

how a secret weather forecast saved the Apollo 11 crew - this is amazing, don't remember ever reading about it before

https://www.nro.gov/News/News-Articles/ ... U8.twitter

With some difficulty, NASA and the U.S. Navy made last-minute changes to Apollo 11’s reentry and splashdown profile, saving the astronauts and their mission.

[srainhoutx]

Hard to believe that 50 years ago at this hour, The Eagle was descending toward the Sea of Tranquility on the lunar surface. So many vivid memories flood in and remembering my Dad and his assignment to work with those 'moon rocks' in the vacuum chamber in Building 37 (Lunar Receiving Laboratory) at JSC.

[Cromagnum]

That crap near Spring needs to calm down or go another direction. I've got a concert in the woodlands to attend tonight

[unome]

Hard to believe that 50 years ago at this hour, The Eagle was descending toward the Sea of Tranquility on the lunar surface. So many vivid memories flood in and remembering my Dad and his assignment to work with those 'moon rocks' in the vacuum chamber in Building 37 (Lunar Receiving Laboratory) at JSC.

that's too cool srain, I had no idea - you must be extremely proud of your dad

[jasons2k]

I hit 100 today. Rainclouds in all directions except on top of me!