July 2019: Warming Trend/Slight Chances For Rain

[Texaspirate11]

i didnt know the nhc had a podcast - great for the blind and others

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/audio/201907112106.mp3

[Kingwood36]

is it possible that Barry misses the trough as it has seem to stop digging south?

[unome]

https://twitter.com/JPSSProgram/status/ ... 5272552448

Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS)
‏Verified account @JPSSProgram

#NOAA20 passed over Tropical Storm #Barry this afternoon, its #VIIRS instrument seeing that the circulation center had become more well-defined. For the latest on Barry: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#Barry

D_OcTWKWsAMO-5C - Copy.jpg

[Belmer]

is it possible that Barry misses the trough as it has seem to stop digging south?

Very well possible. So much hinges on where the center finally consolidates. Think the next 12 hours will be telling if one of the multi vortexes can finally take over and where the vorticity ends up at. Does it get tugged further southwest closer to the convection? Southeast? What I'll be keeping an eye on is how much convection develops overnight with very high CAPE values and shear that should be relaxing. It is slightly concerning to see models have a shift westward during the 12z runs (Euro, GFS, UKMET, ...even the NAM - though not a reliable tropical model). The 00z runs may cause more headaches if there's another shift west. This is a rather unique situation between the trough/ridge and Barry's placement. Just a small model error placement on either of those could have huge implications on forecast track. Forecasting is not easy...

[unome]

i didnt know the nhc had a podcast - great for the blind and others

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/audio/201907112106.mp3

yes, pretty awesome, they've done that for some years, though not on every storm: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/audio/

[Kingwood36]

From this afternoon's "discussion section" - Houston NWS

Most tropical model guidance pull Barry north Friday night into
Saturday making landfall in Louisiana. This looks to be the most
likely scenario and limits the impacts to SE Texas.
- We are still a little leary of the track forecast as the UKMET
continues a track to the west of the consensus models and the
12Z GFS ensemble shows a more westwards shift in tracks as well.
This may be due to these models building the ridge over
Florida. This serves as our alternate scenario but confidence
lies in the most likely scenario above.

[Katdaddy]

TS Barry is trying to organize over the N GOM this evening. The official NHC forecast has TS Barry remaining a TS and landfalling along the S Central LA Coast Saturday. With that said until TS Barry is onshore we still need to be tropical weather aware along the Upper TX Coast.

More excellent information from this afternoon’s National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX Area Forecast Discussion:

Changes since last forecast:

- It looks like the upper trough will be moving east enough to not fully pull TS Barry north.

- TS Barry still looks to move north as there will still be a
weakness in the flow and the Bermuda ridge building over the Bahamas and Florida will continue to do so through the weekend. Flow around this ridge should help push TS Barry north but still some question as to when exactly will happen.

- Most tropical model guidance pull Barry north Friday night into Saturday making landfall in Louisiana. This looks to be the most likely scenario and limits the impacts to SE Texas.

- We are still a little leary of the track forecast as the UKMET continues a track to the west of the consensus models and the 12Z GFS ensemble shows a more westwards shift in tracks as well. This may be due to these models building the ridge over Florida. This serves as our alternate scenario but confidence lies in the most likely scenario above.

Impacts for SE Texas are highly dependent upon the track. We are more confident that there will be minimal impacts from Barry for the area, but do not want to let our guard down either. It is best to continue to monitor forecasts going forward.

[stormlover]

Hwrf makes a huge shift west

[srainhoutx]

Meanwhile we are seeing some effects from the outer fringes of Barry locally...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
600 PM CDT THU JUL 11 2019

COASTAL HARRIS TX-COASTAL GALVESTON TX-
600 PM CDT THU JUL 11 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN GALVESTON AND
SOUTHEASTERN HARRIS COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

AT 600 PM CDT, DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
NORTHEASTERN SEABROOK, MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SOUTHEASTERN PASADENA, NORTHEASTERN LEAGUE CITY, LA PORTE, SEABROOK,
WEBSTER, KEMAH, EASTERN CLEAR LAKE, NASSAU BAY, TAYLOR LAKE VILLAGE,
EL LAGO, SHOREACRES, CLEAR LAKE SHORES, THE JOHNSON SPACE CENTER AND
KEMAH BOARDWALK.

[Kingwood36]

Its the hwrf tho lol

[djmike]

When should we see the tug NW/N IF it happens?

[stormlover]

Its the hwrf tho lol

Lol lol

[Scott747]

Its the hwrf tho lol

I'm not picking on ya but you look at it like this.

The HWRF is a model that the nhc specifically uses in their forecasting.

And despite the Ukie being on an island by itself not only was the operational rum mentioned in the last disco but the ensembles were as well.

[Texaspirate11]

Friend of mine on Bolivar said really bad storm came thru. I think winds clocked 60 mph
She said there is some minor damage around.

[Cromagnum]

Its the hwrf tho lol

I'm not picking on ya but you look at it like this.

The HWRF is a model that the nhc specifically uses in their forecasting.

And despite the Ukie being on an island by itself not only was the operational rum mentioned in the last disco but the ensembles were as well.

Oh there was definitely rum involved with these models...no other explanation.

[Kingwood36]

Its the hwrf tho lol

I'm not picking on ya but you look at it like this.

The HWRF is a model that the nhc specifically uses in their forecasting.

And despite the Ukie being on an island by itself not only was the operational rum mentioned in the last disco but the ensembles were as well.

Oh there was definitely rum involved with these models...no other explanation.

No harm no foul..i just always heard it wasnt the best

[stormlover]

If the ukmet is right these meteorologists are going to be pissed

[Kingwood36]

If the ukmet is right these meteorologists are going to be pissed

How much faith are you putting in to it?

[stormlover]

If the ukmet is right these meteorologists are going to be pissed

How much faith are you putting in to it?

Lol man I have no clue I know it’s a good model, been consistent the last 3 days with its prediction and we are 2 days out but who knows lol

[srainhoutx]

If the ukmet is right these meteorologists are going to be pissed

Frankly, "these" meteorologists have been offering many hints of their uncertainty regarding the movement of this messy tropical system. You even see it mentioned by our own HGX forecasters...repeatedly over the past 24 hours. These meteorologists tend not to be "model huggers" and know to respect the uncertainties of forecasting. When you get 'burned', you'll understand how personal they take "missing" the forecast...