July 2019: Warming Trend/Slight Chances For Rain

[srainhoutx]

Stupid question. What does CWA mean in the NWS discussions?

County Warned Area

[djmike]

Ah. Thank you

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 031521
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1021 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019

.UPDATE...
12z sounding data supports low convective temperatures between
84-86 degrees and this seems to be verifying as shra/tsra
expanding coverage. Should be an active sea breeze day with
convection spreading inland with heating. Made some minor tweaks
to wind/PoPs/hourly temps but the integrity of the previous
forecast is on track. Also issued a SCEC for the western waters
for this afternoon and will likely need an SCEC for the Gulf
waters tonight. 43

[Texaspirate11]

Nice tropical downpour by the bay complete with lightning and thunder!

[djmike]

Beaumont hammered again. 1” already in 15 min and counting.

[mcheer23]

Everything seems to be falling apart right as it enters fort bend county. No storms for me lol

[DoctorMu]

Everything seems to be falling apart right as it enters fort bend county. No storms for me lol

Lots of thunder, but somehow the sea breeze has jumped right over us.

[Cpv17]

Today was somewhat of a bust if you ask me.

[mckinne63]

Nada here, yesterday or today. Yesterday looked promising, but Stafford seemed to be smack dab in the middle of the rain that did pop up.

[mckinne63]

Getting some rain in Stafford now! Yay! It's coming down pretty good. Maybe I won't have to add water to the pool tomorrow

[cperk]

Happy 4th of July to all the WX infinity forum members.

[Katdaddy]

Happy Independence Day!!! A hot and partly to mostly sunny afternoon on the way for SE TX after some clearing this morning. Inland areas N of Houston may see an isolated shower or thunderstorm however these will dissipate by the evening with loss of daytime heating. Nice but warm humid weather for the fireworks tonight. Have a fun and safe 4th of July!

[srainhoutx]

Happy Independence Day everyone. The weather looks typically hot and uneventful into early next week, but changes are brewing by mid next week. In fact to 12Z GFS and ECMWF are suggesting the potential of late next week tropical mischief brewing in the Central/Eastern Gulf. We may see a deep Eastern US trough with a frontal boundary stalling along the Northern Gulf Coast. The GFS moves a weak feature toward Texas while the ECMWF is attempting to develop a stronger system moving inland along the NE Gulf Coast.

[Cpv17]

Looks like a fairly hot and dry weather pattern will be setting up over next couple weeks. Ugly!!

[DoctorMu]

Back door front and tropical features persist on GFS, Ensemble in a week...but the wave/disturbance projected to hang off the FL Gulf Coast. Rain doubtful west of I -45 for now.

[Katdaddy]

Tropic Watch has started across the Atlantic Basin. This is the time to make sure family, friends, and co-workers have a plan ready. Memories of Rita 2005 alway come flooding back......I was not ready and learned a life lesson which I carry forward thus my post this evening. Safety always first.

[cperk]

Tropic Watch has started across the Atlantic Basin. This is the time to make sure family, friends, and co-workers have a plan ready. Memories of Rita 2005 alway come flooding back......I was not ready and learned a life lesson which I carry forward thus my post this evening. Safety always first.

Katdaddy I'm not sure if anyone was ready for Rita.

[srainhoutx]

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring the potential for future NE Gulf of Mexico mischief...

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A trough of low pressure over western Kentucky, Tennessee and
northern Mississippi is forecast to move over the northeastern Gulf
of Mexico where a low pressure area could form early next week.
Some gradual development of the system is then possible as it drifts
westward over the northern Gulf of Mexico through midweek.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Blake

[Kingwood36]

quite the westward jump on the 12z Euro through hour 120.

[srainhoutx]

quite the westward jump on the 12z Euro through hour 120.

The European model is significantly stronger than every other model as well. I'd like to see another day of guidance before jumping on the organization bandwagon. That said we need to monitor trends carefully this coming week.