July 2019: Warming Trend/Slight Chances For Rain

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Belmer
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NHC has cut back the expected eastward hatch for the area of interest in the GoM. While models aren't real bullish with this organizing to anything significant, we saw how quickly TD3 went from just an area of thunderstorm /tropical wave to a closed surface low. If it wasn't for that front, TD3 would have had potential to get stronger as it was over a relatively good environment.

Models meander this south of TX/LA next couple of days, with the CMC a bit more aggressive in developing a low while the GFS doesn't do much with it. As of right now, should enhance rainfall chances along TX coast for the weekend.
NHC.png
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Jul 24 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Disorganized cloudiness and showers located over the northwestern
Gulf of Mexico are associated with a frontal boundary. A
non-tropical low is expected to form along this boundary tonight
or Thursday, and environmental conditions could support some
subtropical or tropical development late this week while the
disturbance meanders near the northwestern Gulf Coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.


Forecaster Stewart

Here is a snippet from our friends in League City:
One other thing about this weekend that I hesitate to even
mention: NHC is watching the frontal zone in the Gulf for a low
chance of tropical development. Chances for now are pretty low,
and the large majority of guidance brings these frontal remnants
off to the east/northeast. The NAM, though, leaves some vorticity
behind and develops that into a tropical cyclone that drifts and
eventually moves onshore in our area this weekend. Fortunately the
NAM is...how do I put this delicately...not particularly reliable
for tropical cyclone guidance, and I have every expectation that
we will have no concerns of the tropical type this weekend. I
wouldn`t necessarily sleep on this, though. Southeast Texas has
some experience with weird things happening in this sort of
scenario *cough* Humberto *cough* - so it doesn`t hurt to
occasionally check in and make sure things occur the way they`re
"supposed" to.
Blake
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srainhoutx
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NWS Houston‏Verified account @NWSHouston · 17m17 minutes ago
You may have heard the rumors, and it's true - Intercontinental has had a minimum temperature of 68° this morning. This ties Houston's record low for the day from 1972! This is preliminary, of course - we'll have to wait until the day is done for it to become official.

Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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CrashTestDummy
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Good to know the NOAA Mets can still have some fun. I'd expect anything that might spin up would be sucking a fair amount of very dry air north of it, which would hamper any development. But as was mentioned, we've enjoyed some weird weather lately, chief of which is the July cold front. Enjoying it while I can, though, since 'regular' Houston summer weather returns this weekend.
Gene Beaird,
Pearland, Texas

"You can learn a lot from a Dummy."
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What a nice morning before the big suck builds back in.
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Cromagnum wrote: Wed Jul 24, 2019 8:16 am What a nice morning before the big suck builds back in.
Staff... when someone types in "Summer" can it populate with "Big Suck"? :lol:
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tireman4
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Tropical Mischief?
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Rip76
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Is most of that "mischief," drifting East?
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srainhoutx
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Rip76 wrote: Wed Jul 24, 2019 11:32 am Is most of that "mischief," drifting East?
The tail end of the front down near Brownsville is where the latest GFS/Canadian models are now sniffing out as a potential weak surface low. That said wind shear is not favorable for any appreciable development and it sits and drifts Westward via those models. Probably an increase in weekend moisture for our area.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Texaspirate11
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I knew. Lovely cold front...hot gom...yeah I've seen this rodeo before....
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
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Katdaddy
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A little tropical weather history to share this evening while we enjoy perfect SE TX weather. Today is the 40th anniversary for Tropical Storm Claudette July 24-25, 1979 that dropped 43” of rain 3.2 miles NW of Alvin, TX in 24 hours with a storm total of 45”. I was 11 at the time and remember 22.5” of rain at Mom and Dads in Pearland. It was my first epic flood which was followed many years later by 2 more epic floods which were Allison 2001 and Harvey 2017.
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srainhoutx
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40 years ago tonight I was on a Delta L-1011 inbound to IAH from college to visit the family. I recall vivid lightning over the Gulf S of Louisiana. We also have a 'chance' to break a 125 year old record for a low minimum tomorrow morning. Isn't weather grand?
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Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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MontgomeryCoWx
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I like me some record lows. Today reminded me of my time in grad school in Columbus, OH. A summer day with minimal humidity and in the 80s. It was great for late July.
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jasons2k
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The weather is beautiful! It was great for the run, and it’s great on the back patio tonight! Enjoy everyone!
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Ptarmigan
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srainhoutx wrote: Wed Jul 24, 2019 8:21 pm 40 years ago tonight I was on a Delta L-1011 inbound to IAH from college to visit the family. I recall vivid lightning over the Gulf S of Louisiana. We also have a 'chance' to break a 125 year old record for a low minimum tomorrow morning. Isn't weather grand?
That is Tropical Storm Claudette.

Tropical Storm Claudette
http://www.atms.unca.edu/ibtracs/ibtrac ... 9197N13314

You can see satellite images of Claudette making landfall. I notice the heavy rain is west of the center unlike in other heavy rain events from tropical systems like Allison and Harvey.

It would be nice if there was Doppler radar image of Claudette.
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Belmer
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Didn't quite break/tie any records this morning at Bush or Hobby.

Record for Bush IAH was 65F. Was one degree off with a min low of 66.
Record for Hobby was 68F. Min low was 70.

Huntsville and Conroe were the 'chilly' spots this morning with a min low of 61.

Enjoy today, as tonight will start to transition back to a southerly flow as PW's increase with a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms this weekend. There's hints that we may have another front not too far on the horizon. Whether it gets as cool as it did this time around is TBD. But any front that comes through this time year I'll take. :)
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Maybe these fronts are a harbinger for an early Fall, and a real Fall at that.
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tireman4
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I remember the August 2004 front that was really nice...:)
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Houston Outlook
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tireman4
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00
FXUS64 KHGX 250814
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
314 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Cooler and dry weather continues again today, and low
temperatures around dawn look to fall to near record values in
Houston. Cool mornings are expected at the other climate sites in
College Station and Galveston, but records there will be more
safe.

This weekend, onshore winds will return, increasing humidity and
afternoon potential for rain showers and thunderstorms. As higher
humidity keeps overnight lows from falling as far, we should also
see a gradual warming in afternoon highs to near or above average
values.

Ridging is expected to grow stronger deeper into the week, which
may gently suppress shower and thunderstorm chances, and will also
support this slow warming trend.


.SHORT TERM [Through Friday]...

One last day of a dry, comfortable airmass residing over the region.
We then begin transitioning back to reality as high pres moves off
to the east and winds begin transitioning to more of an onshore
direction thru the day Friday. As this occurs expect for increasing
RH`s and cloudiness as Gulf moisture makes a return. Scattered
shra/tsra should mostly be confined offshore, though may see some
late afternoon precip make its way as far north as the I-10
corridor. 47


.LONG TERM [Friday Night Through Thursday]...

Look for winds to veer southeasterly Friday night, maximizing
onshore flow, and hastening our return to more typical summertime
conditions. A weakness/col in midlevel ridging over the
northwestern Gulf may help enhance the diurnal pattern of showers
and thunderstorms. As a result, scattered showers and storms may
more readily fire across Southeast Texas, rather than being more
closely confined to the seabreeze boundary.

Next week, all expectations are for summertime conditions to
continue. The current forecast is a bit freer with the PoPs, as
both the GFS and Euro are a little less aggressive in sliding the
Western US ridge eastward towards the Southern Plains. But, in
general, the same forecast philosophy applies for deeper into next
week in that high temperatures will drift back towards the middle
90s away from the water and afternoon rain chances will be
tempered a bit...just maybe not as much as I had thought last
night.

&&

.AVIATION [09Z TAF Update]...

VFR. 47

&&

.MARINE...

Moderate NE winds will gradually veer to the east and eventually
southeast going into Fri. With the corresponding increase in
moisture levels, it looks like there could be periods of scattered
to occasionally numerous shra/tstms this weekend. Other than the
typical hazards that go along with those, don`t see anything of
particular significance. Onshore winds/seas should remain below
caution levels into next week. 47

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Another quite dry day is expected across the large majority of
Southeast Texas, with RH dropping as low as the upper 20s and 30s,
unless you happen to be roughly east of Galveston Bay, or near the
coast, which should linger above 40 percent. Winds will eventually
become more onshore into the weekend, which will steadily increase
humidity levels in the coming days. RH down into the 30s may still
occur in the northwestern part of the area on Friday before
also seeing more typical RH values.

During this dry period, we`re not looking for winds to be terribly
strong, and as we`ve already had one dry day to decrease fine dead
fuel moistures, the fuel conditions should stay relatively stable
today. Because of this, the low RH should have the greatest impact
on very dense beds of fine fuels where influences for the lighter
winds and potentially more moist heavy fuels would be minimized.

&&

.TROPICAL...

NHC continues to eye the remnants of our recent cold front in the
Gulf of Mexico. Odds remain low for any development at all from
this feature, and even if that occurs, odds are very low that
Southeast Texas would see direct impacts from any tropical
cyclone. The only real warranted action at this point continues to
be casual monitoring while NHC continues to include the area in
its outlooks. If you need to procrastinate on other things on your
to-do list this weekend, you could glance over your hurricane
plan and supplies and ensure everything is in tip-top shape.

&&

.CLIMATE...

A record low temperature was tied yesterday morning for the city
of Houston in the wake of this July cold front. Bush
Intercontinental reached 68 degrees, which ties the daily record
low last reached in 1972.

Both Houston sites are forecast to be near record lows again this
morning, while Galveston and College Station should be cool, but
safely above any record values.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 92 69 93 72 93 / 0 0 0 10 20
Houston (IAH) 91 69 92 75 92 / 0 0 20 10 50
Galveston (GLS) 90 79 89 80 87 / 0 0 30 40 60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...47
LONG TERM...Luchs
AVIATION...47
MARINE...47
FIRE WEATHER...Luchs
TROPICAL...Luchs
CLIMATE...Luchs
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wxdude
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I remember the Aug 2004 front well. I think our high was 84 and low of 61 with pure sunshine. Multiple nights of 60's.
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