July 2019: Warming Trend/Slight Chances For Rain
Line looks to be moving SE last few frames. Got a little bit this morning in Beaumont but nothing heavy. Just a few quick showers. Sun is out and been shining for last few hours, I wonder if that will spark things off in our area later. For now, its just HOT and deathly HUMID!
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Wow - it’s one heckuva a squall up here off Grogan’s Mill. Torrential rains and must be gusting to 50mph range.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4471
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
Significant Weather Advisory
Weather Updated: Jul 15 1:53PM
Issued by the National Weather Service
For Inland Harris County, Texas
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2:45PM CDT MON ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY AND NORTH CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM CDT... AT 153 PM CDT, DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER HOOKS AIRPORT, OR NEAR TOMBALL, MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... TOMBALL, THE WOODLANDS, GREATER GREENSPOINT, SPRING, ALDINE, NORTHWESTERN NORTHSIDE / NORTHLINE, OAK RIDGE NORTH, SHENANDOAH, WOODLOCH, THE WOODLANDS PAVILLION, HOOKS AIRPORT, CHATEAU WOODS, SPLASHTOWN, WILLOWBROOK, HIDDEN VALLEY, PORTER HEIGHTS, NORTHERN ACRES HOME, NORTHWESTERN BUSH INTERCONTINENTAL AIRPORT AND GREATER INWOOD. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM, AND MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE. &&
Weather Updated: Jul 15 1:53PM
Issued by the National Weather Service
For Inland Harris County, Texas
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2:45PM CDT MON ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY AND NORTH CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM CDT... AT 153 PM CDT, DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER HOOKS AIRPORT, OR NEAR TOMBALL, MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... TOMBALL, THE WOODLANDS, GREATER GREENSPOINT, SPRING, ALDINE, NORTHWESTERN NORTHSIDE / NORTHLINE, OAK RIDGE NORTH, SHENANDOAH, WOODLOCH, THE WOODLANDS PAVILLION, HOOKS AIRPORT, CHATEAU WOODS, SPLASHTOWN, WILLOWBROOK, HIDDEN VALLEY, PORTER HEIGHTS, NORTHERN ACRES HOME, NORTHWESTERN BUSH INTERCONTINENTAL AIRPORT AND GREATER INWOOD. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM, AND MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE. &&
Yep it’s an intense one here at work. But at my house on the other side of 45, it’s like a force field stopping the rain. Every radar frame I think it will advance a frame closer to my house, but instead the eastern edge just keeps eroding....
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MontgomeryCoWx
- Posts: 2356
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- Contact:
1.5 inches at our place in Magnolia.
How about 1.5 per week until the end of August?
How about 1.5 per week until the end of August?
Team #NeverSummer
So far .50” at my house. Enough so that I don’t have to run sprinklers again for awhile...so I’m good.
when is all of this training going to be out of Texas?
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19615
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- Contact:
I believe today is the last we will see of the trailing moisture from Barry.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Curious watching the radar loop. You can see outflow boundaries - instead of just colliding - it’s as if they are push past each other at different levels of the atmosphere. You can see some recently crossed along 290. I was expecting a convective blow-up with the collision but they just blew past each other.
-
Texaspirate11
- Posts: 1278
- Joined: Tue Dec 31, 2013 12:24 am
- Contact:
Got friends in the Woodlands sitting in the dark. They got bad storms...we got not a drop.
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
Annnd thats a wrap! So long barry! Now for the hot and humid days ahead. 
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Yeah the last bit of convection is dying out now. That’s the end of Barry for us. We did get quite the finale up in The Woodlands today. At least I got some rain in the bucket to survive the next week of miserable hot and dry.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4471
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 161123
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
623 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019
.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
Nighttime RGB from GOES 16 shows a decent amount of low stratus
mainly north of a KSGR to KIAH line. Obs show lower ceilings and
think the stratus should persist until about 14-15Z when winds
begin to mix the boundary layer more. Mesoscale models suggest
afternoon showers and storms which looks on track given slightly
lower 500mb heights and higher moisture over the region. Coverage
should not be a much as yesterday but enough to need at least VCSH
in the TAFs. Quite possible there will be a need for VCTS/TSRA in
the afternoon but this will depend upon coverage. Most likely
terminals that may need mention of TS are KCXO and KIAH based on
mesoscale guidance. Any TSRA should decrease after 23Z and then
likely see another round of MVFR ceilings for tonight into
Wednesday morning.
Overpeck
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 352 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019/...
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Thursday]...
Water vapor imagery this morning has an upper low over the
Mississippi River Valley and Ozarks associated with the remnants
of Barry. There is a bit of a trough axis with this upper low that
stretches back into NE Texas and some lingering deep moisture
over SE Texas. GOES 16 precipitable water sounder data shows 1.7
to 2.0 inches of PWAT over the area this morning. Analysis of 00Z
upper level data still shows a weakness in the ridge over the area
with 300mb ridges over the Desert SW and northern Gulf Coast.
Given these upper level conditions and lingering moisture,
atmospheric environment over SE Texas will still be supportive of
convection but the amount of coverage will be very different from
the last couple of days.
Meso-scale models are all in pretty good agreement with at least
some scattered showers and storms over the area by afternoon given
enough daytime heating. Sea breeze and left over outflow boundaries
may be enough to focus convection once convective temps are reached.
There seems to be at least some consensus of WRF runs having more
convection in similar areas of north of I-10 most likely in the
northern Harris/southern Montgomery county area. Latest HRRR model
trends are for more isolated activity so possible that rain chances
could be less than what we are expecting. Rainfall amounts should be
less than yesterday with mainly 0.5 to 1 inches of rain but would
not be all that surprised to see an isolated 2 inches given the
amount of moisture lingering from Barry. High temperatures should
reach the low/mid 90s again and with the humidity, heat index values
should reach around 105F with the usual smattering of isolated brief
higher readings. At this time a heat advisory is not expected.
Overpeck
.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Tuesday]...
Upper level ridging should build back in from the east by mid
week over the Red River Valley. With the surface high situated
over the northern portion of the Gulf of Mexico, onshore flow
should help to pump moisture back into the region. Precipitable
water values (PWs) Wednesday should range between 1.4 to 1.7
inches across the region and will rise back up to near 1.7 to 1.9
inches by the weekend. With dewpoint depressions narrowing to near
1 to 3 degrees, patchy fog looks possible mainly west of I-45 in
the early morning hours Wednesday and through the remainder of the
week. A slight chance for showers and thunderstorms by Friday,
with most of the potential development being diurnally driven and
acting on mesoscale boundaries such as the sea and bay breezes.
Through the remainder of the week, expect more of a typical summer
pattern with heat indices each day reaching into the low 100s.
Global guidance is in fairly good agreement in the extended with
bringing in a few weak disturbances beneath the upper level ridge
and across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. These should also
help to increase shower and thunderstorm coverage this weekend.
Hathaway
.MARINE...
Overall the next few days we can expect a more typical summer time
forecast. Winds will generally be from the south around 10-15 knots
with a slight increase to 15-17 knots at times overnight. This will
also support seas around 3-4 feet.
The only other concern will be slightly higher tides and rip
currents. Tides should be about a half foot to a foot above normal
but not cause any problems.
Overpeck
.CLIMATE...
A record high minimum temperature was set at Houston Hobby
yesterday, with a low temperature of 81 degrees. This breaks the
old record of 80 set back in 2011. So far through July 14th, average
temperatures are on track to rank as the 7th warmest July on
record.
Hathaway
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 94 76 94 76 95 / 20 0 10 0 0
Houston (IAH) 93 78 93 78 93 / 20 10 20 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 90 83 90 83 89 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
AVIATION...Overpeck
FXUS64 KHGX 161123
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
623 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019
.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
Nighttime RGB from GOES 16 shows a decent amount of low stratus
mainly north of a KSGR to KIAH line. Obs show lower ceilings and
think the stratus should persist until about 14-15Z when winds
begin to mix the boundary layer more. Mesoscale models suggest
afternoon showers and storms which looks on track given slightly
lower 500mb heights and higher moisture over the region. Coverage
should not be a much as yesterday but enough to need at least VCSH
in the TAFs. Quite possible there will be a need for VCTS/TSRA in
the afternoon but this will depend upon coverage. Most likely
terminals that may need mention of TS are KCXO and KIAH based on
mesoscale guidance. Any TSRA should decrease after 23Z and then
likely see another round of MVFR ceilings for tonight into
Wednesday morning.
Overpeck
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 352 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019/...
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Thursday]...
Water vapor imagery this morning has an upper low over the
Mississippi River Valley and Ozarks associated with the remnants
of Barry. There is a bit of a trough axis with this upper low that
stretches back into NE Texas and some lingering deep moisture
over SE Texas. GOES 16 precipitable water sounder data shows 1.7
to 2.0 inches of PWAT over the area this morning. Analysis of 00Z
upper level data still shows a weakness in the ridge over the area
with 300mb ridges over the Desert SW and northern Gulf Coast.
Given these upper level conditions and lingering moisture,
atmospheric environment over SE Texas will still be supportive of
convection but the amount of coverage will be very different from
the last couple of days.
Meso-scale models are all in pretty good agreement with at least
some scattered showers and storms over the area by afternoon given
enough daytime heating. Sea breeze and left over outflow boundaries
may be enough to focus convection once convective temps are reached.
There seems to be at least some consensus of WRF runs having more
convection in similar areas of north of I-10 most likely in the
northern Harris/southern Montgomery county area. Latest HRRR model
trends are for more isolated activity so possible that rain chances
could be less than what we are expecting. Rainfall amounts should be
less than yesterday with mainly 0.5 to 1 inches of rain but would
not be all that surprised to see an isolated 2 inches given the
amount of moisture lingering from Barry. High temperatures should
reach the low/mid 90s again and with the humidity, heat index values
should reach around 105F with the usual smattering of isolated brief
higher readings. At this time a heat advisory is not expected.
Overpeck
.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Tuesday]...
Upper level ridging should build back in from the east by mid
week over the Red River Valley. With the surface high situated
over the northern portion of the Gulf of Mexico, onshore flow
should help to pump moisture back into the region. Precipitable
water values (PWs) Wednesday should range between 1.4 to 1.7
inches across the region and will rise back up to near 1.7 to 1.9
inches by the weekend. With dewpoint depressions narrowing to near
1 to 3 degrees, patchy fog looks possible mainly west of I-45 in
the early morning hours Wednesday and through the remainder of the
week. A slight chance for showers and thunderstorms by Friday,
with most of the potential development being diurnally driven and
acting on mesoscale boundaries such as the sea and bay breezes.
Through the remainder of the week, expect more of a typical summer
pattern with heat indices each day reaching into the low 100s.
Global guidance is in fairly good agreement in the extended with
bringing in a few weak disturbances beneath the upper level ridge
and across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. These should also
help to increase shower and thunderstorm coverage this weekend.
Hathaway
.MARINE...
Overall the next few days we can expect a more typical summer time
forecast. Winds will generally be from the south around 10-15 knots
with a slight increase to 15-17 knots at times overnight. This will
also support seas around 3-4 feet.
The only other concern will be slightly higher tides and rip
currents. Tides should be about a half foot to a foot above normal
but not cause any problems.
Overpeck
.CLIMATE...
A record high minimum temperature was set at Houston Hobby
yesterday, with a low temperature of 81 degrees. This breaks the
old record of 80 set back in 2011. So far through July 14th, average
temperatures are on track to rank as the 7th warmest July on
record.
Hathaway
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 94 76 94 76 95 / 20 0 10 0 0
Houston (IAH) 93 78 93 78 93 / 20 10 20 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 90 83 90 83 89 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
AVIATION...Overpeck
Maybe one more round today - we’ll see.There seems to be at least some consensus of WRF runs having more convection in similar areas of north of I-10 most likely in the northern Harris/southern Montgomery county area.