July 2019: Warming Trend/Slight Chances For Rain

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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Katdaddy
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The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Flood Advisory for...
Southwestern Brazoria County in southeastern Texas...
North central Matagorda County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 745 PM CDT.

* At 539 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
clustering thunderstorms. This will cause minor flooding in the
advisory area. Up to two inches of rain have already fallen.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Bay City, Sweeny, Van Vleck, Markham and western Wild Peach
Village.

Additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches may occur over the area
through 7 PM. This additional rain will result in minor flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small
creeks and streams, country roads, farmland, and other low lying
spots.

A Flood Advisory means river or stream flows are elevated, or ponding
of water in urban or other areas is occurring or is imminent.
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Rip76
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Nada bit in Galco.
mckinne63
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Not a drop or sprinkle in Stafford.
davidiowx
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Clouds are lowering and darkening here in Richmond. Looks like some storms are starting to fire along that boundary just south of Rosenberg!

I’d gladly take anything at this point. I held off watering until Tuesday to see if we can get lucky :)
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Texaspirate11
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Nada by the bay
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Kingwood36
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Whats the tropical outlook looking like beyond berry? Anything that catches the eye?
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Only 49 days until climatological Fall....
Team #NeverSummer
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Rip76
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Sun Jul 14, 2019 9:04 pm Only 49 days until climatological Fall....
And college football 🤘🏼
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tireman4
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And Cross Country!
Cromagnum
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Bummer, not a drop today. Hopefully there is some relief tomorrow before the big suck takes over for a while. At least I'll be in the Midwest and New England areas this week for work and can escape.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Rip76 wrote: Sun Jul 14, 2019 9:11 pm
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Sun Jul 14, 2019 9:04 pm Only 49 days until climatological Fall....
And college football 🤘🏼
Amen! Although, that hand signal could use some work ;)
Team #NeverSummer
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djmike
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Wet day across SETX as we say good riddance to barry. Tail end of storms storms today, then....well, just hot! Can someone post where todays boundaries are setting up? Will the heaviest remain offshore or just inland?
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
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snowman65
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djmike wrote: Mon Jul 15, 2019 6:28 am Wet day across SETX as we say good riddance to barry. Tail end of storms storms today, then....well, just hot! Can someone post where todays boundaries are setting up? Will the heaviest remain offshore or just inland?
we got a little bit here in Orange but it seemed like the band's last night were either moving just north of me or just south of me.
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srainhoutx
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It's certainly more humid this morning across NW Harris County than it has been the past several day. I see locations just North of Cleveland picked up 3 to 5 inches in a skinny band of storms early this morning. Still a chance of some rain today and we do have a Marginal/Slight/Moderate Risk for Excessive Rainfall today, but we should settle into a more benign July pattern this week. Daily chances of seabreeze showers and storms will be the theme as an onshore flow re establishes this week in the wake of Barry. A July heat wave sets up for the Mid West and the Mid Atlantic as we look to remain in a mostly Easterly flow beneath that sub tropical ridge. There are some indications that a weak frontal boundary may sag into our Region early to mid next week. If that does occur, look for some increase for rain chances. I see no other tropical mischief brewing at this time across the North Atlantic Basin.
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 151152
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
652 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
A mixture of IFR to VFR ceilings across the TAF sites this morning
with isolated showers and thunderstorms across the region, as well
as some patchy fog. Development along a speed convergence zone
continues this morning, but most of the action has pushed east
of CXO over the past hour. Scattered convection should increase in
coverage through the afternoon hours developing along residual
boundaries. Heavy downpours and gusty winds will be possible with
any strong storms that develop. Short term guidance such as the
HRRR show most of the precipitation dissipating shortly after
sunset and then potentially redeveloping along the coast Tuesday
morning. Southerly winds will lower to less than 10 knots
overnight besides at the coast, with MVFR ceilings looking to
return area wide by the early morning hours.

Hathaway

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 410 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019/...

.SHORT TERM [Today through Tonight]...
Radar imagery shows showers and thunderstorms continuing to develop
along an axis of speed convergence, draped across Polk, San Jacinto,
and Montgomery counties this morning. To the south of this boundary,
southwesterly winds between 5 to 10 knots are colliding with nearly
calm conditions. Isolated showers are also beginning to pop up to the
south of this axis. Other remnant boundaries lingering from
yesterday`s precipitation should act as a focus for additional
development as we move through the morning hours. Besides
precipitation, patchy fog has also developed this morning, with
dewpoint depressions narrowing to l to 3 degrees across portions of
Colorado County to Harris and back to the southwest along the coast.
Would anticipate most of the patchy fog to burn off and dissipate
near sunrise.

Considering the latest runs of short term guidance and radar trends
over the past few hours, would expect convection to become more
widespread through the early morning hours and continue to fire up
along the speed convergence north of I-10. The HRRR and ARW appear
to have initialized the best this morning, picking up on the timing
and placement of the axis and isolated to scattered showers
developing to the south of it. Looking ahead, their solutions
suggest this boundary to wobble southward closer towards I-10 over
the next few hours, with more scattered development areawide. By the
afternoon hours, this boundary should once again lift north and
continue to act as a focus for further development into the early
evening hours. The ARW shows more in the way of coverage by the
early afternoon hours really filling in precipitation south of I-10,
before shifting the best coverage to the northwest by the evening
hours. At this time, feel more confident in the HRRR solution than
the ARW. In terms of instability, today looks to be the best in
comparison to the last few days. CAPE values will range between 2500-
4000 J/kg along a line from Columbus to Cleveland and southward,
Lifted Index values by this afternoon will peak between -7 and -11,
and inverted V profiles hint at the threat for gusty winds.
Additionally, ample moisture will be available, with precipitable
water values between 1.8 and 2.2 inches. Therefore, locally heavy
rainfall associated with heavy downpours, and gusty winds in strong
storms will likely be the main weather hazards today. Again, the
Weather Prediction Center has outlooked a portion of our area under
a slight risk for excessive rainfall, across Galveston to southern
Montgomery County and eastward. Otherwise, partly skies will limit
high temperatures a touch today, with forecast high temperatures to
rise into the low 90s.

Hathaway


.LONG TERM...
On Tuesday, an upper level trough over the mid Mississippi valley
will extend S-SW into East Texas. PW values will remain near 1.90
inches so can`t rule out some scattered showers and thunderstorms
through out the day. 850 mb temperatures remain warm so sfc temps
should warm into the mid 90s. The upper trough will move east Tue
night and upper level ridging will build into the central plains.
500 mb heights increase only slightly to around 593 dm but 85mb
temps don`t really warm, in fact they actually look to cool back
down to around 19 C. The upper ridge also has some moisture
trapped beneath it so can`t really rule out an isolated shower
from time to time through Thursday. The upper level ridge retreats
toward the Ohio valley on Friday and this feature looks far
enough north to allow some weak disturbances to under cut the
ridge and approach the area from the east. This will keep a
slight chance for showers in the forecast through next weekend.
Overall, after today, the week ahead looks rather typical for
summer with near seasonal temperatures, heat index values between
100 and 104 degrees and a slight chance of showers each day, with
the better chances near the coast. 43


.MARINE...
Small craft should continue to exercise caution today, with onshore
flow between 15 to 20 knots this morning lowering to around 15 knots
this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will again be possible
over the bays and gulf waters today, leading to the threat for heavy
downpours, frequent lightning and gusty winds in and around stronger
storms. A similar pattern can be expected for tomorrow, with onshore
flow increasing tomorrow night to exercise caution criteria, before
lowering again in the late morning hours. In general, this diurnal
pattern of slightly stronger winds overnight will continue through
much of the week. Seas will also continue to lower to between 2 to 4
feet by mid week. Tides should run right around astronomical normals
through the end of the week.

Hathaway

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 93 77 95 77 95 / 40 10 10 10 10
Houston (IAH) 92 79 93 78 93 / 50 20 30 10 20
Galveston (GLS) 89 83 90 83 90 / 60 40 20 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 1 PM CDT this
afternoon for the following zones: Coastal waters from
Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal
waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters
from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60
NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60
NM.


&&

$$

AVIATION...08
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srainhoutx
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Allen Parish in SW Louisiana is likely seeing a flood disaster unfolding. Radar estimates rainfall totals nearing 18 to 20 inches. Folks planning on travel to Kinder/Coushatta and Oakdale may want to reconsider traveling into that area.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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tireman4
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Alluding to what Steve is talking about...from Jeff
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srainhoutx
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07152019 mcd0607.gif
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0607
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1014 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2019

Areas affected...Southern/Central Louisiana...Western/Central
Mississippi

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 151413Z - 152013Z

Summary...Dangerous, significant flash flooding is likely to
continue across south-central Louisiana into west-central
Mississippi as training rain bands associated with T.D. Barry
produce hourly totals 2-3". Additional rainfall through 20Z may
approach 5-8" locally.

Discussion...As of 14Z, radar imagery showed a persistent heavy
rainfall band oriented southwest to northeast across south-central
Louisiana into west-central Mississippi. Total rainfall amounts
locally across Avoyelles, Evangeline, Allen, Beauregard, and
Calcasieu parishes has reached 10-15 inches where significant
flash flooding has been occurring.

The environment will remain very conducive for significant heavy
rainfall and flash flooding into the afternoon hours. SBCAPE of
around 2000 J/kg exists across the outlook area within an axis of
highly anomalous moisture pool (2.2"+). The deep layer mean flow
across the region is oriented parallel to the storm cell motion
(southwest to northeast) and this suggests repeated, training
convection with rebuilding likely on the south/southwest flank
over the hardest hit areas already. All of the activity continues
to align itself along localized areas of stronger boundary layer
moisture convergence which is expected to persist through the
afternoon.

The latest HREF and other hi-res guidance shows stripes of heavy
rainfall to persist into the afternoon hours. The 06Z HREF 6-hour
mean shows widespread 2-4" amounts with local maximum totals in
the 5-8" range. This is likely to fall across areas that have
already seen the higher end totals (10-15") across south-central
Louisiana. Hourly totals are likely to be in the 2-3" range with
some extreme hourly totals near 4" possible given the deep
tropical moisture in place.

Dangerous, significant flash flooding is likely, especially across
south-central Louisiana given the already saturated soils. Flash
Flood Guidance for 1-hour is 0.25" or less, so this additional
rainfall will worsen ongoing flooding in the area.

Taylor

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...MEG...SHV...
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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jasons2k
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Yesterday evening the sea breeze lifted north of me....and stayed. No land breeze oscillation overnight, so today, fresh new day and of course, the convergence band is still parked north of me. Looks like sprinklers will be running in full force tomorrow.
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Texaspirate11
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I cant believe I had to water my grass the flowers.
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