July 2019: Warming Trend/Slight Chances For Rain

[Rip76]

What is keeping that blob of storms from moving north into our area?

[srainhoutx]

Sunday morning Update from Jeff:

Banding of heavy rainfall possible over the area from late this afternoon into Monday.

The center of TS Barry has moved well inland and is located near Toledo Bend Reservoir this morning, but as has been the legacy of Barry, most of the convective activity remains on the southern and southwest flanks of the circulation. Numerous heavy thunderstorms have develop this morning across the upper TX coastal waters and are moving ESE/E on the southern side of the circulation field. This activity is likely to remain offshore through at least the early afternoon hours.

As heating and moisture increase inland scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely develop this afternoon and form into lines moving from WNW to ESE over the area on the western side of the circulation field. As Barry drifts northward late today and tonight it appears a favorable low level convergence zone will become established over the area favoring the formation of feeder bands. High resolution models continue to point to this idea and form one such band over portions of Fort Bend, Harris, Galveston, Chambers and Liberty Counties. Such feeder bands can move little and train for extended periods of time producing heavy rainfall rates and totals. Some of the short range guidance is showing this with 3-4 inches possible under these bands tonight into Monday morning with isolated higher totals. Atmospheric conditions look favorable for heavy rainfall with high moisture levels and the potential for any such bands to train for a period of time, although there is little confidence in where any such banding may develop. Meso models want to tend to focus along and SE of US 59.

Will need to watch trends closely today into tonight for the development of heavy rainfall that could lead to some flash flooding over the area.

WPC Day 1 outlook includes the areas along and SE of US 59 for excessive rainfall.

[Rip76]

Never mind, I should just waited for the Jeff update.

[srainhoutx]

Never mind, I should just waited for the Jeff update.

I was reading Jeff's email just as you asked that question

[Kingwood36]

Whats the tropical outlook looking like beyond berry? Anything that catches the eye?

[unome]

That IR satellite image almost suggests the center is offshore of Matagorda Bay when in fact it's up about 80 miles SSE of Shreveport. ...

great point - for anyone interested, there are terrific educational tools online to learn more about GOES-16 (& other) products, the various bands used, pros, cons, how to best interpret, etc...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/GOESR_QuickGuides.html
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/trainin ... ck_guides/

[djmike]

Amazing that blob of barry is still in the gulf. Barry left his butt behind! But on a kore serious note, that blob looks like a complete diff storm than barry. Is there no spinning or cyclonic features with this blob?

[srainhoutx]

Amazing that blob of barry is still in the gulf. Barry left his butt behind! But on a kore serious note, that blob looks like a complete diff storm than barry. Is there no spinning or cyclonic features with this blob?

No spin associated with that Mesoscale Convective System offshore. It's a good things that mess has stayed offshore. HGX Radar estimates 12 to 18 inches of rain have fallen over the NW Gulf.

[unome]

https://arcg.is/00qKL5

happy to have just a small blue slice of the 24-hr total precip, with another hot July week coming up

[mckinne63]

Amazing that blob of barry is still in the gulf. Barry left his butt behind!

LOL!!!!

[DoctorMu]

Yeah, I think per Jeff we'll see a band of shower seabreeze itself over Galveston and towards downtown Houston. It *may* reach NW Harris County by the time the sun goes down. High and dry in CLL, although Monday could be a better chance for area wide scattered showers before the spigot is turned off.

Had to run the sprinklers last night, but everything is still green in mid-July in Aggielland because of all the rain this Spring - well, since October really! The story goes it rained twice this winter in College Station. Once for 30 days and the other time for 40 days!


Southern Plains ridge builds after that, although an inverted trough may provide some relief in a week.

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 643 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019/...

"Will keep a slight chance of PoPs for Tues/Weds as PW values
remain between 1.80 and 2.00 inches but capping begins to increase
as 850 temperatures begin to warm. Global models still show some
light QPF over the extreme SE part of the CWA Thu/Fri but an
expanding 500 mb over the southern plains will likely keep most of
the area dry and hot. Heights build to 595 dm over OK and 850
temps warm to around 22 C. Looks like next weekend will be very
warm and dry with temperatures in the mid/upper 90s and heat index
values between 105-110 degrees. An inverted upper trough will
push west early in the following week undercutting the ridge and
could bring some showers back to the area a week from Mon/Tue. 43

[Cromagnum]

So what we should have learned is that if there is not a defined LLC, the models are not to be trusted.

[djmike]

Looks like our band is beginning to come together SE of Beaumont slowly advancing NW. Small streamer showers just NW of Beaumont. How far that band moves NW remains to be seen. Houston, baytown, winnie and Beaumont may be the alleyway this evening till tomorrow. Also noticed wind has picked up here too. 15-20mph when it was calm all morning.

[unome]

So what we should have learned is that if there is not a defined LLC, the models are not to be trusted.

I thought it was an extremely well-forecast storm - kudos to all the NHC, OPC, WPC, SPC, WFO, RFC etc...staff that worked it

GFS Jul 5th - Image from Tropical Tidbits

gfs jul 5th - Copy.jpg

[Katdaddy]

Marine Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
203 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

GMZ335-355-142000-
203 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

A Marine Weather Statement has been issued for the following areas...
Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...
Galveston Bay...

At 201 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm,
capable of producing winds to around 30 knots that formed on outflow
from thunderstorms over the Gulf. This outflow will bring strong
gusty south and southeast winds across Galveston Bay and up into the
ship channel and Turning Basin area these strong winds will expand
inland around 20 knots. This thunderstorm was located over Offatts
Bayou, or near Galveston Causeway, moving northwest at 5 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners can expect gusty winds to around 30 knots, locally higher
waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor
immediately until this storm passes.

[srainhoutx]

Keep a keen eye on that outflow boundary and the trough axis draped over Ft Bend, Harris and Liberty Counties. If storms fire off, training could be a problem.

[Katdaddy]

Looking interesting on radar.

[jasons2k]

I’m beginning to wonder if I’m gonna get anything up here. I may be running sprinklers tomorrow morning at this rate.

[Cromagnum]

A few storms are setting up south of the outflow boundary that is moving to the NW. We'll see how far they get.

[djmike]

Is that line it? Was/is that what everyone’s been talking about for the last 24 hrs or is larger bigger one supposed to be expected? The current band seems to be dying out.