July 2019: Warming Trend/Slight Chances For Rain

[Cromagnum]

People sure are getting snarky at S2K. Accusing folks of wishcasting when they are asking about Texas impacts. Sorry, but this is a weird storm and a lot of energy is well south of the circulation. The models were mostly terrible for this system because it is not behaving like a normal system.

[Kingwood36]

People sure are getting snarky at S2K. Accusing folks of wishcasting when they are asking about Texas impacts. Sorry, but this is a weird storm and a lot of energy is well south of the circulation. The models were mostly terrible for this system because it is not behaving like a normal system.

I I try to steer clear of S2K a lot of people seem a little arrogant on their especially when you try to ask questions and learn..this forum is alot more amateur friendly and i like that it has a home feeling to it

[cperk]

People sure are getting snarky at S2K. Accusing folks of wishcasting when they are asking about Texas impacts. Sorry, but this is a weird storm and a lot of energy is well south of the circulation. The models were mostly terrible for this system because it is not behaving like a normal system.

I I try to steer clear of S2K a lot of people seem a little arrogant on their especially when you try to ask questions and learn..this forum is alot more amateur friendly and i like that it has a home feeling to it

I totally agree this forum has a family feel to it while also having a wealth of knowledge. This is where I want to be when a storm is heading for southeast Texas.

[TexasBreeze]

This is a good forum where the members/ admins will answer questions and they wont be snarky or overlooked!

[srainhoutx]

Hurricane Berry continues to make a cyclonic loop around Lafayette/S Central Louisiana at this hour. RECON managed to catch the far Eastern edge of that meso vort before it headed home. Movement is still slow, but hopefully it does move out sooner rather than later.

[unome]

Landfall https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#Barry

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Barry Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
100 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019

...BARRY MAKES LANDFALL NEAR INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA AND WEAKENS
TO A TROPICAL STORM...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS
CONTINUING ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.8N 92.1W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM NE OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SSW OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...115 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

The Hurricane Watch has been discontinued for the Louisiana coast
west of Intracoastal City.

The Hurricane Warning for the Louisiana coast will likely be
discontinued later this afternoon as Barry moves farther inland.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to Grand Isle

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to Grand Isle
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New
Orleans
* Intracoastal City to Sabine Pass

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to Biloxi
* Lake Pontchartrain

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Biloxi to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barry was
located near latitude 29.8 North, longitude 92.1 West. Barry is
moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and a turn toward
the north-northwest is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward
the north on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Barry
will move through southern Louisiana this afternoon, into central
Louisiana tonight, and into northern Louisiana on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 70 mph (115 km/h) with higher
gusts, and these winds are located over water to the southeast of
the center. Weakening is expected as Barry moves farther inland,
and it is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center. The National Ocean Service station at Eugene
Island, Louisiana recently reported sustained winds of 61 mph and a
wind gust of 72 mph.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Barry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Intracoastal City to Shell Beach...3 to 6 ft
Shell Beach to Biloxi MS...3 to 5 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...3 to 5 ft
Biloxi MS to the Mississippi/Alabama border...2 to 4 ft
Lake Maurepas...1 to 3 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Barry is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 20 inches over south-central and southeast Louisiana and
southwest Mississippi, with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches.
Across the remainder of the Lower Mississippi Valley and western
portions of the Tennessee Valley, total rain accumulations of 4 to 8
inches are expected, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches.
This rainfall is expected to lead to dangerous, life threatening
flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring across the Hurricane
and Tropical Storm Warning areas to the east of the center. Wind
gusts to tropical-storm force in squalls are possible along portions
of the coasts of Mississippi, Alabama, and the western Florida
Panhandle through tonight.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight across
the southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, and southern Alabama.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

[Texaspirate11]

All I wanna say is God bless our nhc....wouldnt wanna be in their shoes now. They are doing a yeomans job along with our nws.

[mckinne63]

People sure are getting snarky at S2K. Accusing folks of wishcasting when they are asking about Texas impacts. Sorry, but this is a weird storm and a lot of energy is well south of the circulation. The models were mostly terrible for this system because it is not behaving like a normal system.

I I try to steer clear of S2K a lot of people seem a little arrogant on their especially when you try to ask questions and learn..this forum is alot more amateur friendly and i like that it has a home feeling to it

I only pay attention to what the pro mets are saying here. This forum gives the best information. My mother in law and hubbies brothers live near Hammond, LA, about an hour west of New Orleans. Talked to her earlier today and she said they have not seen a drop of rain. As I told her, best to be prepared and never let your guard down. She said folks were griping about the no rain yet. I told her, best to be prepared and it's not over yet.

[srainhoutx]

Radar out of Lake Charles suggest a band of extremely heavy squalls is near the Coast. Folks in Abbeville, New Iberia and Lafayette could see a quick deterioration of their relative calm weather they've been experiencing as Barry has not moved much at all in that last 3 hours. Surge has been running near 6 feet along the Coast of S Central/SE Louisiana.

Edit to add: Clouds have spread across NW Harris County. As Barry meanders about, I do believe we may see some increase in rain chances this afternoon. Some of the models still suggest we could have a wet and stormy day tomorrow extending into Monday.

[Texaspirate11]

Barry crawls ashore in Louisiana, weakens to tropical storm

gosh hurricane barry we hardly knew ye

[unome]

just love his video updates https://www.facebook.com/NWSNHC/videos/464716041026779/

20190713_183411_sport_goesEast_abi_mesoscale2_daytimeMicrophysics - Copy.jpg

[DoctorMu]

Radar out of Lake Charles suggest a band of extremely heavy squalls is near the Coast. Folks in Abbeville, New Iberia and Lafayette could see a quick deterioration of their relative calm weather they've been experiencing as Barry has not moved much at all in that last 3 hours. Surge has been running near 6 feet along the Coast of S Central/SE Louisiana.

Edit to add: Clouds have spread across NW Harris County. As Barry meanders about, I do believe we may see some increase in rain chances this afternoon. Some of the models still suggest we could have a wet and stormy day tomorrow extending into Monday.

Barry's weakened disorganized state is lowering temps vs. what they could be west of a hurricane.

We are definitely seeing outer circulation on CLL with cumulus clouds, NNW win 15-20 mph. The north breeze and slightly lower dewpoint and clean tropical look felt great yesterday evening. You know it's the dog days in eastern Texas when a DP of 68° is a welcome relief.

Looking for renegade bands of circulation to cross the TX border. The circulation is now west of Lafayette along the coast. South of Cow island and Esther, heading towards lake Arthur if it doesn't turn N.

Given the weakness and disorganization of Barry, I'm not feeling from here the major pressdown of the upper level high above the storm...as the top and north end remain sheared off. usually, we'd be hitting 100°F+, but we're actually 3°F below normal. So, in theory, it could spread out again, and with daytime heating, who knows in SE Texas - maybe some rain.

[djmike]

Barry is a strange storm. Not that we in Beaumont were forecasted to get anything big but I think we had more wind and rain yesterday in his outer band when he was further away offshore. Around 2 o’clock today is when we were forecasted by mets to see our 30-35 gusts. Well its now after 2 and maybe had one gust of 20 all day. Yesterdays outer band i clocked highest gusts at 37. Seems with all this northerly shear keeping rains suppressed from the N and W of Barry, we may not see much at all from him. So far Yesterday seemed more barry like than today.

Add: NWSLC still shows Tropical Conditions Possible for The Beaumont area. Expect this to disappear soon im sure if these conditions currently persist.

[TxLady]

Just had a little shower pass through; and, still have dark skies off to the East. I will take this welcome cloud cover and just enough rain to water the plants!

[DoctorMu]

Barry is a strange storm. Not that we in Beaumont were forecasted to get anything big but I think we had more wind and rain yesterday in his outer band when he was further away offshore. Around 2 o’clock today is when we were forecasted by mets to see our 30-35 gusts. Well its now after 2 and maybe had one gust of 20 all day. Yesterdays outer band i clocked highest gusts at 37. Seems with all this northerly shear keeping rains suppressed from the N and W of Barry, we may not see much at all from him. So far Yesterday seemed more barry like than today.

Add: NWSLC still shows Tropical Conditions Possible for The Beaumont area. Expect this to disappear soon im sure if these conditions currently persist.

A couple of thin renegade bands are invading Texas with a line from Lufkin to Beaumont. There is some outer wrap around rain forming - check out the thicker band spinning through Alexandria.

We have 5.5 hours of hearing left. Let it spin.



The center just keeps drifting towards Lake Charles...

[DoctorMu]

Fast moving popcorn showers are beginning to emerge on radar in east TX. Rolling in from the NE.

Have major watering to do tonight, unless some of that liquid gold comes down!

[srainhoutx]

The WPC issues Marginal/Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall across portions of SE Texas. Moderate/High Risk for Louisiana in their Updated Day 2 Outlook.

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BARRY ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022019
400 PM CDT SAT JUL 13 2019

...BARRY MOVING FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS
CONTINUING ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.1N 92.3W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM WSW OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE LOUISIANA COAST HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE LOUISIANA COAST HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO SABINE PASS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW
ORLEANS

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO BILOXI
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BILOXI TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARRY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 92.3 WEST. BARRY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H) AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUED TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF
BARRY WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA THIS
EVENING, THROUGH CENTRAL LOUISIANA TONIGHT, AND THROUGH NORTHERN
LOUISIANA ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS, AND THESE WINDS ARE NEAR THE COAST TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE
CENTER MOVES FARTHER INLAND, AND BARRY IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A
DEPRESSION ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES (280 KM)
FROM THE CENTER. A UNITED STATE GEOLOGICAL SURVEY STATION AT
CYPREMORT POINT, LOUISIANA, RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF
62 MPH, WHILE THE NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE STATION AT EUGENE ISLAND,
LOUISIANA, REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 55 MPH AND A WIND GUST OF
72 MPH. IN ADDITION, THE ACADIANA REGIONAL AIRPORT IN NEW IBERIA,
LOUISIANA, RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 MPH AND A WIND
GUST OF 61 MPH.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB (29.44 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR BARRY CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDAT2 AND WMO HEADER WTNT42 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS MOVING INLAND FROM THE SHORELINE. THE WATER COULD
REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND SOMEWHERE IN THE INDICATED
AREAS IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

INTRACOASTAL CITY TO SHELL BEACH...3 TO 6 FT
SHELL BEACH TO BILOXI MS...3 TO 5 FT
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...3 TO 5 FT
BILOXI MS TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER...2 TO 4 FT
LAKE MAUREPAS...1 TO 3 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE, AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

RAINFALL: BARRY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
10 TO 20 INCHES OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES. ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES. THIS RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO DANGEROUS, LIFE
THREATENING FLOODING.

WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA, AND THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL-STORM FORCE IN
SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COASTS OF MISSISSIPPI,
ALABAMA, AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH TONIGHT.

TORNADOES: ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALABAMA, SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI, AND SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[srainhoutx]

Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
400 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019

Surface observations and WSR-88D Doppler radar data indicate that
the center of Barry moved inland across Marsh Island and
Intracoastal City, Louisiana around 16-18Z. Since then, the system
has moved farther inland and weakening has started. The initial
intensity is reduced to 55 kt based on recent observations from
Eugene Island and Cypremort Point.

The initial motion is now 330/6. Barry should continue
north-northwestward and northward through Louisiana for the next
30-36 h as the cyclone moves through a weakness in the mid-level
ridge to the north. After that, the cyclone or its remnants should
encounter the westerlies and turn north-northeastward before they
dissipate. The new NHC forecast track has changed little from the
previous advisory and lies near the various consensus models.

Barry should continue to weaken as it moves farther inland, and it
is currently forecast to weaken below tropical-storm strength in
about 24 h. Subsequently, the cyclone should degenerate to a
remnant low between 48-72 h and dissipate between 72-96 h. It
should be noted that by Sunday morning the strongest winds will
likely be occurring well away from the center over the Louisiana
coast and the coastal waters.

Barry made landfall as a hurricane. However, due to the poor center
definition, the exact times and locations will be determined in
post-analysis.

Key Messages:

1. Although Barry has moved inland, life-threatening storm surge
inundation continues along the coast of southern and southeastern
Louisiana, portions of Lake Pontchartrain, and portions of coastal
Mississippi where a Storm Surge Warning remains in effect.

2. Life-threatening, significant flash flooding and river flooding
will become increasingly likely across portions of south-central and
southeast Louisiana into Mississippi through Sunday as Barry moves
farther inland. The slow movement of Barry will result in a long
duration heavy rainfall and flood threat from Sunday into next week,
extending from the central Gulf Coast north across the Lower to Mid
Mississippi Valley and portions of the Tennessee Valley.

3. Tropical Storm conditions are occurring within portions of the
Tropical Storm Warning area. Through Sunday morning, these
conditions will continue along much of the Louisiana coast and
spread inland across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley where
tropical storm warnings are in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 30.1N 92.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
12H 14/0600Z 31.0N 92.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 14/1800Z 32.2N 93.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 15/0600Z 33.6N 93.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 15/1800Z 35.0N 93.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 16/1800Z 38.5N 92.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

[DoctorMu]

FWIW, wind CoC near Lake Arthur as the storm meanders towards Lake Charles. Will Barry turn north first?


https://www.windy.com/?30.097,-92.463,10