July 2019: Warming Trend/Slight Chances For Rain

[davidiowx]

We have tropical storm Barry

[davidiowx]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 111452
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Barry Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
1000 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019

...DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM BARRY...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 88.7W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the Louisiana coast
from the Mouth of the Pearl River to Morgan City.

A Storm Surge Warning is now in effect for the Louisiana coast from
the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Shell Beach.

A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for the Mississippi coast
east of the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama
border...and for Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including
metropolitan New Orleans.

A Storm Surge Watch is now in effect for the Mississippi coast from
the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to Morgan City

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Shell Beach

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Shell Beach to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Cameron

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama
border
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New
Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area generally within 48 hours.

Additional watches and warnings may be required for portions of the
northern Gulf coast later today or tonight. Interests elsewhere
along the Gulf Coast from the Upper Texas Coast to the Florida
Panhandle should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barry was
located near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 88.7 West. Barry is
moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue today. A turn toward the west-northwest is
expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest on
Friday. On the forecast track the center of Barry will be near the
central or southeastern coast of Louisiana Friday night or Saturday.

Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph
(65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected
during the next day or two, and Barry could become a hurricane late
Friday or early Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
mainly to the southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Barry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT32 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Shell Beach...3 to 6 ft
Shell Beach to the Mississippi/Alabama border...2 to 4 ft
Intracoastal City to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River...2 to 4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...1 to 3 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Barry is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 15 inches near and inland of the central Gulf Coast through
early next week, with isolated maximum rainfall amounts of 20 inches
across portions of eastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical
Storm Warning area by Friday. Hurricane conditions are possible
within the Hurricane Watch area by Friday night, with tropical storm
conditions possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area by Friday
night or Saturday.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible tonight and Friday across
southern portions of Louisiana and Mississippi.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 111138
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
638 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019

.AVIATION...
High PW values coupled with a series of weak upper level
disturbances will produce periods of showers and thunderstorms
today into tonight. VFR conditions are expected except during the
bouts of precipitation. Fcst soundings show an inverted V
signature so any of the stronger storms could produce gusty winds.
VFR conditions expected overnight and precip should come to an
end after 03z as PW values decrease. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019/

SHORT TERM [Today through Tonight]...

An outflow boundary will exit the region early this morning. Any
residual precip along the boundary will end prior to sunrise. There
is quite a contrast in temperatures this morning with rain cooled
air producing values in the lower 70`s north while further south,
temperatures remain in the lower and middle 80`s. PW values will
range from from 1.90 to 2.20 inches today with convective
temperatures around 93 degrees. A 500 mb ridge over TX will begin to
retreat and heights fall from 592 dm to around 590 dm by late
afternoon. HiRes guidance brings a series of vort lobes into the
area from the E-NE and the NAM12/GFS both show a speed max rotating
into the area around 21z with a bit of a split in the jet developing
over mainly the S-SW half of the region. Will maintain chance PoPs
today but favor the southern zones with higher PoPs. Slightly lower
heights, slightly cooler 850 temps and additional cloud cover should
keep temperatures a degree or so cooler than yesterday. Moisture
levels stay high tonight as the disturbance in the north central
Gulf pushes W-NW. Will maintain chance PoPs for the SE half of the
area as some of the moisture from the developing storm should begin
to encroach on SE TX. Clouds will keep temperatures warm tonight and
some spots will not fall below 80 degrees. 43

LONG TERM [Friday through Wednesday]...

Includes Tropical Discussion...

Mid to upper level ridge will continue to prevail over the Rockies
Friday. Meanwhile, a weak upper level shortwave will slightly
amplify as it moves from the lee side of the Rockies into the
northern Plains. A low pressure system (previously Invest 92L)
is expected to continue to develop while it moves generally
towards the west across the northern Gulf waters. These features
will create a narrow corridor of high moisture content along the
southern Plains and across the coastline of Texas, which will
slowly filament into the low pressure system. For southeast
Texas, the highest PWs should remain over the southern half of the
CWA Friday morning, where PW values from 1.8 to 2.4 inches.
Another surge of low level moisture, most likely associated to the
outer rainbands of the low pressure system, is expected to move
from Louisiana into the local area Friday afternoon spreading
westward through Saturday morning. Areas south of I-10 and east of
I-45 are expected to experience scattered showers and
thunderstorms Friday, whereas the areas north of I-10 and west of
I-45 are expected to experience isolated activity.

On Saturday, the area of high pressure in the mid to upper levels
is expected to retreat to the west, allowing the upper level
shortwave to dig a little more south into the central Plains. If
it does, then it would allow the low pressure system to shift
northward into the Louisiana coastline, brining heavy rainfall,
storm surge, and tropical or hurricane force winds across the
Central Gulf coast this weekend. If not, then the system could
meander a little while longer over the northern Gulf waters or
have a slower forward motion than forecasted, which could change
the current forecast track and location of impacts. More details
regarding this system is enclosed below.

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO (previously Invest 92L)...

Low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico, approximately near
latitude 27.5 North, longitude 88.0 West is expected to slowly move
west to southwest across the northern Gulf of Mexico today.
Environmental conditions and sea surface temperatures are conducive
for the development of the system and a tropical depression is
expected to form later today. The system is forecast to move west
to northwest Friday followed by a northwest motion by early
Saturday.

The track analysis from most of the global models have the system
moving inland along the Louisiana coast, keeping most of the threat
of the system well east of southeast Texas. A few models however,
have the system moving closer to the Upper Texas Coast Saturday.
Although, the current track forecast follows the ECMWF/GFS
solution, it is important to not ignore the other model outputs,
especially since the storm has further development in the near
future. That being said, if the current NHC forecast track remains
unchanged and the system does move inland along the Louisiana
coast, then the bulk of the rainfall activity, storm surge and
wind threat would likely stay out of our CWA. However, the outer
rainbands of the system is expected to move across our local
region, bringing periods of showers and thunderstorms throughout
the weekend as the system moves north further inland. WPC
Rainfall Estimates: At this time, SE Texas is not under a
significant threat for excessive rainfall as indicated on WPC
Excessive Rainfall Outlook for Friday or Saturday. It is still
too soon to say the exact amount of storm surge (if at all), or
how strong the winds will be for our CWA. More information to come
later today or Friday.

Keep in mind, the system has not yet developed into a tropical
cyclone and changes to the forecast track could change throughout
today and Friday. Continue to closely monitor the development and
track of the system as well as your local NWS and NHC forecasts.
Now is the time to review your hurricane preparedness plan with
your family and neighbors.

Early next week, conditions will gradually improve as the system
continues to track further inland across the central Plains and
area of high pressure expands over western Texas. Shower and
thunderstorm activity can be expected to continue Monday
throughout the day, decreasing Monday night. Isolated activity
could still occur Tuesday and Wednesday depending on how
stable/unstable the environment will be. 24

MARINE...

The marine forecast will largely depend upon what happens in the
Gulf of Mexico with regards to the potential tropical cyclone. A
gradual increase in winds and seas through the weekend can be
expected as the disturbance in the Gulf moves W-NW. Small craft
advisories may be needed at some point mainly for seas assuming a
track of the tropical cyclone that takes it inland to Louisiana. Any
shift in the track to the west or left of the current track will
only go into increasing impacts for marine interests. Southwest
winds will develop on SUnday as the storm pushes well inland. A
light to moderate onshore flow will return to the coastal waters
Sunday night and persist for the week ahead. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 96 77 96 76 93 / 30 20 10 10 20
Houston (IAH) 96 79 96 79 93 / 40 30 30 20 40
Galveston (GLS) 92 82 91 81 89 / 50 50 40 40 60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...24
Aviation/Marine...43

[srainhoutx]

Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
1000 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019

The low pressure area over the northern Gulf of Mexico has become
better organized during the past several hours, with a large
convective band in the southern semicircle. The circulation
center has also become better defined, although it is still
elongated and multiple cloud swirls are seen rotating around the
mean center. In addition, Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft report flight-level and SFMR winds high enough for
an initial intensity of 35 kt. Based on these developments, the
system is upgraded to Tropical Storm Barry.

The initial motion is a rather uncertain 270/4. Barry is being
steered by a weak low- to mid-level ridge to the north, and a
weakness in the ridge is forecast to develop during the next
24-48 h. This should allow the cyclone to turn northwestward and
eventually northward. However, there is a large spread in the track
guidance. The HWRF and HMON forecast Barry to move almost due
north from its current position with a landfall in Mississippi,
while the UKMET takes the cyclone to the upper Texas coast. The
GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian models lie between these extremes.
Overall, there has been a slight eastward shift of the guidance
envelope, so the new forecast track is also adjusted slightly to
the east. It should be noted, though, that the new track is west
of the consensus models.

Barry is being affected by northerly shear, and water vapor imagery
indicates mid- to upper-level dry air moving into the cyclone from
the northeast. Some moderate shear is now expected to persist until
the cyclone makes landfall. Despite this less than ideal
environment, the guidance forecasts slow but steady intensification,
so the NHC forecast follows this trend. The new intensity forecast
is similar to the previous one in calling for Barry to become a
hurricane just before landfall in Louisiana, and it lies between the
HCCA and ICON consensus models.

Key Messages:

1. Barry is expected to bring storm surge, rainfall, and wind
hazards to the central Gulf Coast during the next several days.

2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along the coast of southern and southeastern Louisiana where a Storm
Surge Warning has been issued. The highest storm surge inundation is
expected between the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River and Shell Beach.
Residents in these areas should listen to any advice given by local
officials.

3. A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect for
much of the Louisiana coast and additional watches and warnings
could be required later today. Residents in these areas should
ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.

4. The slow movement of this system will result in a long duration
heavy rainfall threat along the central Gulf Coast and inland
through the lower Mississippi Valley through the weekend and
potentially into early next week. Flash flooding and river flooding
will become increasingly likely, some of which may be significant,
especially along and east of the track of the system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 27.8N 88.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 27.8N 89.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 28.1N 90.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 28.6N 90.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 29.4N 91.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 14/1200Z 32.0N 91.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 15/1200Z 34.5N 91.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 16/1200Z 37.0N 89.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven

[sambucol]

On it’s current track, Will we get any rain or winds from Barry in SETX?

[Cromagnum]

Lots of rumbles on S2K about how the ridge is building east and the trough isnt setting up, yet the models aren't picking up on that. If that's the case, folks are gonna get caught with pants down tomorrow with minimal prep time. Who knows if there is any truth to that though.

[Pas_Bon]

On it’s current track, Will we get any rain or winds from Barry in SETX?

Not much more than a squirrel fart and someone spitting from a plane.

[stormlover]

Wonder what the ukmet shows on the newest run

[stormlover]

Ukmet lol landfall at Galveston

[Rip76]

On it’s current track, Will we get any rain or winds from Barry in SETX?

Not much more than a squirrel fart and someone spitting from a plane.

Exactly what I was thinkning.

[tireman4]

Bolivar Peninsula..from what I can tell...I cannot post graphics from this machine..

[MontgomeryCoWx]

If it comes on shore west of Lafayette we will have NE winds as high as 30 mph possibly... it will be breezy. If it hits Houma on East, then no.

[mcheer23]

Leave it to UKMET to shift a bit west

[tireman4]

Leave it to UKMET to shift a bit west

You know those crazy Brits...

[djmike]

Seems to be a LOT of chatter this morning about the possibility I mentioned earlier. Again, never say never until the storm is gone! UKMET continues sticking to its guns!

[unome]

On it’s current track, Will we get any rain or winds from Barry in SETX?

for your location, Baytown per your info posted, go here: https://www.weather.gov/hgx/ and enter "Baytown, TX" in the local forecast box in the upper left area of the page

doing that brings up your local forecast from our professional experts at HGX: https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.p ... 8999999997

looks like you have rain chances all week long

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 111542
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1042 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019

...TROPICAL STORM BARRY HAS FORMED...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

After much waiting the latest reconnaissance mission has found
tropical storm force winds with pressure down to 1006mb. The
system is still rather disorganized with little convection around
the center located around 27.8N 88.7W and low movement to the
west. Guidance still takes the system into Louisiana over the next
48 hours which for now will keep impacts to SE Texas to a minimum.
While the chances of impacts continues to decrease, until the
system actually makes a turn to the north we will still need to
monitor forecast data and any changes to the forecast. It is still
good to continue to monitor forecasts and have your hurricane plan
ready to go.

For the rest of today, we are looking at a generally north to
northeast wind flow. There may be some convergence along the coast
so the best chances for storms today will be along the coast with
this convergence for the afternoon.

Overpeck


&&

[sau27]

The NHC has gotten really really good at pinning down these tracks especially this close to landfall. Barry going so far out of the cone that it would significantly affect SE Texas would be one of the biggest NHC fails in a long time - and I just don't see it happening. But hey, I'm down for some weather excitement just as much as the next weather-geek.

[tireman4]

I would bring up Ike, but you are right, the last 5 years they have had a great track record...

[tireman4]

[#NerdTweet] Dry air punch & shear from the north doing a number on #Barry's northern half, but now southern convection is important for track.Watch for whether SW quad or SE quad convection dominates next 12 hours. Diabatic vorticity tendency absolutely could nudge the vortex. pic.twitter.com/TZycZL95EB
-- Levi Cowan (@TropicalTidbits) July 11, 2019