June 2019: Showers/Storms Increasing To End June

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BlueJay
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Re: June 2019: Showers/Storms Increasing To End June

Post by BlueJay » Thu Jun 27, 2019 2:23 pm

One of my neighbor's twin queen palm trees appears to have been struck by lightning during that mini-hurricane type weather we had this afternoon. The palm is split in two. It was taller than their 2 story house. Insurance man has already been out and the chain saw is at work now. We did not receive a warning about this fluke severe weather activity.

This cooler rainy pattern reminds me of early fall.

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Re: June 2019: Showers/Storms Increasing To End June

Post by sau27 » Thu Jun 27, 2019 3:28 pm

BlueJay wrote:
Thu Jun 27, 2019 2:23 pm
One of my neighbor's twin queen palm trees appears to have been struck by lightning during that mini-hurricane type weather we had this afternoon. The palm is split in two. It was taller than their 2 story house. Insurance man has already been out and the chain saw is at work now. We did not receive a warning about this fluke severe weather activity.

This cooler rainy pattern reminds me of early fall.
I wouldn't call it "severe". Tropical afternoon thunderstorms can often have a healthy amount of lightning.

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Texaspirate11
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Re: June 2019: Showers/Storms Increasing To End June

Post by Texaspirate11 » Thu Jun 27, 2019 3:39 pm

BlueJay wrote:
Thu Jun 27, 2019 2:23 pm
One of my neighbor's twin queen palm trees appears to have been struck by lightning during that mini-hurricane type weather we had this afternoon. The palm is split in two. It was taller than their 2 story house. Insurance man has already been out and the chain saw is at work now. We did not receive a warning about this fluke severe weather activity.

This cooler rainy pattern reminds me of early fall.
Your area was under a special weather advisory - intense lightening/hail/gusty winds - yikes - seems like it really played out
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Re: June 2019: Showers/Storms Increasing To End June

Post by srainhoutx » Fri Jun 28, 2019 7:16 am

It looks like we may get a bit of a reprieve from scattered thunderstorms today, but our weekend rain chances increase as an upper air disturbance currently near Little Rock meanders SSW and an inverted trough draped across the Northern and Central Gulf transitions West into our Region tomorrow afternoon/evening. Sunday could be the wettest day of the weekend. On to July!
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Re: June 2019: Showers/Storms Increasing To End June

Post by Cpv17 » Fri Jun 28, 2019 7:19 am

I’m just wondering if anyone else has noticed this (I’m sure y’all have), but to me it seems like models have an east biased with precipitation which causes them to put too much qpf to points east of SETX and not enough over us.

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Re: June 2019: Showers/Storms Increasing To End June

Post by tireman4 » Fri Jun 28, 2019 7:35 am

FXUS64 KHGX 280935
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
435 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019

.SHORT TERM [Today Through Sunday Night]...
Stratus & patchy fog starting to fill in across parts of the area
early this morning. Expect this to lift during the mid morning
hours. Weak surface high pres is expected to be over the area
today, but besides lower PW values, no substantial atmos differences
are noted from yesterday. Think we`ll probably see some sct
shra/tstms develop with daytime heating and seabreeze. (May be
worth keeping an eye out for outflows drifting in from east Tx
storms late in the day as well). Overall coverage should diminish
in the mid evening hours as we lose heating.

Inverted trof stretching across the cntl Gulf states should make
its way westward over the weekend...with the axis generally
across the upper Tx coast by late Saturday then eventually toward
cntl Tx and the the Big Bend area as we head into Sunday night.
Sct precip can be expected as this feature approaches & passes,
though individual models aren`t in the best agreement in regards
to timing/location. More favorable periods should be during the
day when instability is generally higher, but can`t really exclude
any time period. 47

.LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday]...
Trough/weakness continues to retrograde and lingers across west
Tx for a good part of the week. Locally, onshore flow becomes
better established and a surge of deep Gulf moisture makes its way
inland late Monday night and Tuesday bringing with it fairly good
chances of rain into midweek. Deterministic models show gradually
decreasing moisture levels and precip coverage Thursday (July 4th)
into the following weekend. 47

&&

.AVIATION [06Z TAF Issuance]...
We`ll be starting the day with a mix of lower CIGS/VIS across SE TX
this morning. High clouds moving in from the north have been making
it hard for fog development across our northern counties so far but
CIGS have fallen. Closer to the coast, patchy fog is still expected
through mid morning or so. Cannot rule out the possibility of wide-
ly scattered/isolated activity later this afternoon, so will likely
keep with the mention of VCSH/VCTS. Will be looking for mostly MVFR
conditions once again tonight/early Sat morning. 41

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure moving over the region will bring mainly quiet
weather with light onshore flow expected today. A retrograding
upper level trough combined with daytime heating may bring
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms during the
afternoon and evening hours through the weekend. Coverage may
increase towards the end of the weekend and into the start of the
work week. Onshore flow increases next week and may approached
SCEC criteria by midweek as the area gets sandwiched between high
pressure to the east over the Gulf of Mexico and a surface low
located to the west. Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 92 73 88 71 87 / 20 20 30 30 30
Houston (IAH) 93 72 88 71 90 / 40 30 30 30 40
Galveston (GLS) 91 80 88 79 88 / 20 30 20 30 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

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Re: June 2019: Showers/Storms Increasing To End June

Post by tireman4 » Fri Jun 28, 2019 10:30 am

000
FXUS64 KHGX 281538
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1038 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Areas of patchy to dense fog started to dissipate after sunrise
with ceilings gradually lifting. Thus, the Dense Fog Advisory
was allowed to expire at 9 AM CDT this morning. Little to no fog
was reported on the surface observations as of 10 AM CDT.

Based on the current sounding data analysis, environmental
conditions appear favorable for the development of showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon, particularly over the central and
southern regions of the forecast area. Increased the POPs/WX for
these areas throughout the afternoon hours. The rest of the
forecast has been updated to account for the current observation
trend but no major changes were made to the previous forecast.

24

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Rip76
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Re: June 2019: Showers/Storms Increasing To End June

Post by Rip76 » Fri Jun 28, 2019 1:40 pm

There’s a few starting to fire up now.

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tireman4
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Re: June 2019: Showers/Storms Increasing To End June

Post by tireman4 » Fri Jun 28, 2019 2:53 pm

000
FXUS64 KHGX 281743
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1243 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions currently at all TAF sites. Winds will continue
light and variable. Environmental conditions are favorable for
SHRA/TSRA development this afternoon, particularly along the
central and southern portions of the CWA. VCTS is in place for
KIAH, KHOU, KSGR, and KCXO through this evening. Some of this
activity could produce, gusty winds, frequent lightning and heavy
rainfall. Tranquil weather conditions expected tonight with the
chance of patchy to dense fog developing overnight into early
morning hours, particularly west of I-45. This may result in
periods of MVFR/IFR vis/cigs from around 10-14Z. Most of the fog,
if not all, should dissipate shortly after sunrise. VFR conditions
with light and variable winds expected Saturday morning. 24

&&

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Re: June 2019: Showers/Storms Increasing To End June

Post by tireman4 » Fri Jun 28, 2019 3:10 pm

NWS Houston Update
Attachments
NWS Houston 06 28 19.JPG

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