June 2019: Showers/Storms Increasing To End June

[stormlover]

Models struggle with surge of tropical moisture

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 031711
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1211 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2019

.AVIATION...
Forecast of persistence looks tough to beat thru the daytime hours
Tue. Mainly VFR conditions with some intermittent MVFR cigs
possible 9-15z. Though not nil, precip chances should be low
enough to exclude from TAFs until Tue night. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 94 74 92 74 86 / 0 0 20 50 80
Houston (IAH) 95 75 92 78 86 / 20 20 20 50 70
Galveston (GLS) 90 80 89 81 85 / 10 10 30 60 60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 032034
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
334 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2019

.SHORT TERM [Tonight through Tuesday]...

Isolated precip has developed along the seabreeze and should persist
until we lose heating later this evening. No significant wx is
anticipated overnight or into Tuesday morning. Deeper Gulf moisture
will be making its way northward into the area during the afternoon
Tuesday. Look for increased precip coverage to be moving into the
waters during the day and iso/sct activity inland during the
afternoon hours. 47

.LONG TERM [Tuesday Evening Through Monday]...

Late Tuesday into Thursday will result in our next best batch of
showers and thunderstorms which will come in waves mostly over
Wednesday and Thursday. The atmosphere will be primed for the
possibility of locally heavy rainfall associated with deep tropical
moisture which will be surging from the Bay of Campeche, across the
western Gulf of Mexico and across the upper Texas coast. This deep
tropical moisture is associated with the 91L invest, which will move
slowly northwestward towards the northeastern coast of Mexico over
the next few days. Model guidance eventually shows this system
turning north northeastward by late week, eventually becoming
embedded with the upper level trough axis which is also supposed to
swing across N TX and the Plains late Thursday and through Friday
before pushing east of SE TX. As NHC has discussed in their latest
update, latest satellite-based wind data is continuing to show a
poorly defined circulation, with the area of low pressure elongated
rather than symmetrical at this time. Latest global guidance keeps
the NAM being the most aggressive model as well as the fastest
with overall storm motion, showing a better defined system as it
moves along the upper Texas coastline. On the other hand, the
ECMWF and GFS keep this system as a rather disorganized area of
low pressure, which essentially morphs with the upper level trough
axis that swings through the region late Thursday into early
Friday. Trends in latest runs of these models leads to me believe
the GFS and ECMWF have a better handle on the disturbance. This
system will encounter strong shear as it moves into the NW section
of the Gulf of Mexico which will likely hinder further
development come Thursday.

Regardless of development, the impacts to SE TX remain the same. A
surge of high precipitable water values (PWs) are expected to invade
the upper TX coast by Tuesday afternoon, ranging between 2.2 to 2.5
inches. These higher PW values will stick around Wednesday into late
Thursday. These values are well above normal for this time of year,
with normal PW values near 1.5 inches. Some of the short term
guidance such as the NAM and TT WRF are trying to develop an axis of
convergence, but at this time the location of this boundary is still
in flux, and should be able to be narrowed down as the event gets
closer. At this time, we are still calling for rainfall rates of 2
to 3 inches per hour, with the highest rainfall totals possible
along the coast and across portions of Harris, Liberty,
Montgomery and San Jacinto counties. Isolated locally heavy
rainfall will be possible with stronger storms, as well as with
training storms, or storms that continue to develop over the same
area over and over again.

As we move into the weekend, heat will again be the main weather
hazard, as drier air ushers in behind the upper level trough axis
and mostly clear skies will prevail. As a result, temperatures will
be on the rise, with high temperatures Friday through Sunday
forecast to be in the middle 90s, with maximum apparent temperatures
in the low 100s area wide. More widespread cloud cover returns
Monday as a weak frontal boundary tries to stall out over the
region. This will bring another round of precipitation at the start
of next week. Therefore, holding on to 20s/30s Monday and Tuesday to
account for this frontal boundary which looks to stall out between
the coast and I-10. In the latest model runs, the ECMWF is the
fastest with bringing this frontal boundary into the area, followed
by the GFS and Canadian by about six hours. This boundary will
wobble N and S across SE TX before eventually diminishing Wednesday
morning.

Hathaway

&&

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

Forecast of persistence looks tough to beat thru the daytime hours
Tue. Mainly VFR conditions with some intermittent MVFR cigs
possible 9-15z. Though not nil, precip chances should be low
enough to exclude from TAFs until Tue night. 47

&&

.MARINE...

Look for winds and seas to begin increasing tomorrow as the pres
gradient tightens and swell from the disturbed wx in the Yucatan to
begin moving into the upper Tx coastal waters. Small craft
advisories will likely be needed by Tue night...and probably persist
into Thursday. In addition, tide/water levels will rise to between 1-
1.5 feet above normal. This added to the astronomical values and
wave run up will probably cause some coastal flood issues around
times of high tide late Tue night-Thurs. Think Gulf facing areas
mostly east of Freeport will be the problem areas, but later shifts
still have time to evaluate and issue coastal flood advisory if
needed. Building surf and rip currents will be increasing risks
along area beaches. Improving marine conditions are expected as we
head into the weekend.

** Note: some models are developing a closed circulation near
Matagorda Bay late Wed rather than an open trof. Not confident how
this thing is gonna evolve so wind directions could be off during
the Wed afternoon & Thursday timeframe if this occurs. In that case
we`ll see a period of north & northwest winds behind the low as it
passes. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 74 92 74 85 73 / 0 20 50 80 60
Houston (IAH) 75 93 78 86 75 / 20 20 50 70 70
Galveston (GLS) 80 89 81 85 80 / 10 30 60 70 80

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...47
LONG TERM...Hathaway

[don]

The Weather Prediction Center issues a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall for Wednesday...

That’s kinda strange cuz from everything I’m seeing on the models so far it looks like only an inch or two.

It's not strange...with precipitable waters forecast to get too as much as 2.5 inches, there is potential that any storms that do develop on Wednesday/Thursday have the potential to produce very heavy rainfall in a short amount of time due to the potential of high rainfall rates. Global models tend to lack the resolution to detect these mesocale features.I've seen many events through the years when models showed the area getting an inch or two and someone ends up with 6+ inches of rain, it's just the nature of living in a subtropical climate. Not to mention the future organization and direction of 91l will also play a large part when it comes to how much rainfall we may get in Southeast Texas. The latest run of the Texas Tech WRF shows the potential for mid week we need to pay close attention to 91l rather it develops or not.

http://www.atmo.ttu.edu/bancell/real_ti ... _dbz&run=0

[srainhoutx]

The good folks at HGX are suggesting to various partners that 2 to 3 inch per hour rainfall rates are likely Wednesday into Thursday where the heavier downpours occur. Now which neighborhoods see the greatest totals for this event just cannot be determined today. That said the afternoon Updated Weather Prediction Center Quantitative Precipitation Forecast has increased for the next 5 Days.

[jasons2k]

I noticed none of the intensity models cross the TS threshold any longer. Just a rainy slopfest. I could use some.

[Cpv17]

I noticed none of the intensity models cross the TS threshold any longer. Just a rainy slopfest. I could use some.

That would be the best case scenario mainly because tropical storms or hurricanes can greatly change the weather patterns. Right now Texas is overall in a decent pattern for rain. We want that to continue.

[don]

Latest 3k NAM is a little concerning showing up to 12+ inches in parts of Southeast Texas fwiw.

[srainhoutx]

The Weather Prediction Center Quantitative Precipitation Forecast now suggests some locations in SE Texas may see 5 to 10 inches of rainfall over the next 3 Days. A Moderate Risk for Excessive Rainfall as been issued for Wednesday.

[srainhoutx]

Tuesday morning weather briefing from Jeff:

Heavy rainfall increasingly likely tonight-early Thursday

Flash Flood Watch will be in effect from midnight tonight-Thursday morning.

Street flooding likely and significant rises are area bayous and creeks possible.

Discussion:
Large plume of deep tropical moisture associated with tropical disturbance 91L over the SW Gulf of Mexico will rapidly advance northward today and into the TX coast. PWS will increase from 1.6 to nearly 2.0 inches by this evening and into the 2.3-2.6 inch range on Wednesday while the air mass becomes nearly saturated. Moisture levels of this magnitude are impressive even for this area in June and can result in intense rainfall rates due to the large vertical depth of the moisture reducing evaporation. Expect numerous showers and thunderstorms to begin to develop from SW to NE late this afternoon as the moisture begins to arrive into SE TX. Ingredients becoming increasingly favorable for more sustained heavy rainfall late tonight into Wednesday as low level convergence increases over the area and low level inflow increases off the Gulf of Mexico while upper level divergence increases ahead of the approaching trough over the SW US. A low level convergence boundary may become established between the US 59 corridor and the coast and help to organize and focus thunderstorms and heavy rainfall. This pattern remains in place Wednesday and Wednesday night while 91L moves up the TX coast and likely either across SE TX or just offshore over our coastal waters.

Rainfall Amounts:
WPC has upgraded the area into a Moderate risk for flash flooding on Wednesday and increased the rainfall amounts for the region and this seems reasonable based on the latest guidance. Widespread rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches with isolated totals up to 6 inches will be possible. Storm motions will be fast (15-25mph) in the strong SSW to NNE steering flow, but the pattern strongly favors training of cells in bands and lines, especially near any low level boundary that may develop. Rainfall amounts could certainly be higher than shown given the extreme levels of moisture that will be in place. Will favor the heaviest rainfall along and S of the US 59 corridor at this time, but the entire area is at risk. It should be noted that some of the convection allowing models show a strong heavy rainfall signal tonight into Wednesday, and this will need to be monitored closely today.

Rainfall rates of 2-3 inches per hour are certainly possible in this type of air mass if convection can become sustained which will result in rapid street flooding. Rises on area creeks and bayous will be possible especially in area that see repeated rainfall.

Tides:
Winds will begin to increase this afternoon and evening over the coastal waters which will help to build seas on Wednesday. Tides are forecasted to reach near 3.5-4.0 ft on Wednesday which may cause minor coastal flooding on Bolivar and low lying coastal area on the west end of Galveston, Surfside, and in SE Harris County. A coastal flood advisory may be required on Wednesday.

[snowman65]

bring the rain. we aren't quite flooding enough yet.

[Cpv17]

Looks like the coastal counties will see the most rain.

[jasons2k]

Lookie at the Brownsville radar. A distinct LLC trying to wrap quickly but it’s going to make landfall within hours.

[snowman65]

Lookie at the Brownsville radar. A distinct LLC trying to wrap quickly but it’s going to make landfall within hours.

it will probably have a name before it's all said and done.

[unome]

Lookie at the Brownsville radar. A distinct LLC trying to wrap quickly but it’s going to make landfall within hours.

that's not 91L, but pretty cool https://twitter.com/BillyForney3/status ... 3939058689

heat index on Sat is forecast in the "I give up" range I hope we get enough rain out of this & ppl stay smart about whether to go driving in the downpours, wherever they happen

[jasons2k]

OMG - this is precisely why meteorologists get a bad rap for overhyping things because of inaccurate reporting —-

Current headline on Chron.com:

“NWS: Tropical Storm to bring heavy rain to Houston tonight”

Ugh.

Edit: it has been corrected, but still...

[TexasBreeze]

Gotta watch the progress of that little circulation by Brownsville to see if it does any convective warm core rains overnight in its pathway. It is already helping pull up moisture on the offshore waters this morning.

[unome]

91L is east of Tampico in the 12Z Best Track position

Code: Select all

AL, 91, 2019053100,   , BEST,   0, 171N,  869W,  15,    0, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0, GENESIS003,  ,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 003, 
AL, 91, 2019053106,   , BEST,   0, 180N,  874W,  15,    0, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0, GENESIS003,  ,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 003, 
AL, 91, 2019053112,   , BEST,   0, 188N,  883W,  15,    0, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0, GENESIS003,  ,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 003, 
AL, 91, 2019053118,   , BEST,   0, 190N,  894W,  15,    0, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0, GENESIS003,  ,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 003, SPAWNINVEST, al742019 to al912019, 
AL, 91, 2019060100,   , BEST,   0, 194N,  906W,  15, 1008, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1009,  100,  90,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 003, 
AL, 91, 2019060106,   , BEST,   0, 197N,  917W,  20, 1008, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1009,  100,  90,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  ,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 003, 
AL, 91, 2019060112,   , BEST,   0, 197N,  929W,  20, 1008, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1009,  100,  90,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 003, 
AL, 91, 2019060118,   , BEST,   0, 197N,  940W,  20, 1008, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1010,  120,  70,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 003, 
AL, 91, 2019060200,   , BEST,   0, 197N,  942W,  20, 1007, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1009,  120,  70,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 003, 
AL, 91, 2019060206,   , BEST,   0, 197N,  944W,  20, 1007, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1009,  120,  70,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  ,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 003, 
AL, 91, 2019060212,   , BEST,   0, 196N,  945W,  20, 1007, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1009,  120,  70,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 003, 
AL, 91, 2019060218,   , BEST,   0, 197N,  945W,  25, 1007, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1009,  120,  70,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 003, 
AL, 91, 2019060300,   , BEST,   0, 197N,  945W,  25, 1007, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1009,  120,  70,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 003, 
AL, 91, 2019060306,   , BEST,   0, 197N,  945W,  25, 1007, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1008,  140,  90,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 003, 
AL, 91, 2019060312,   , BEST,   0, 199N,  946W,  25, 1007, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1009,  140,  90,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 003, 
AL, 91, 2019060318,   , BEST,   0, 201N,  947W,  20, 1007, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1009,  140,  90,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 003, 
AL, 91, 2019060400,   , BEST,   0, 207N,  953W,  20, 1007, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1009,  140,  90,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, M,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 003, 
AL, 91, 2019060406,   , BEST,   0, 210N,  959W,  20, 1008, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1009,  140,  90,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 003, 
AL, 91, 2019060412,   , BEST,   0, 226N,  969W,  25, 1008, LO,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1009,  140,  90,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 003, 

from https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/forecas ... ed_gom.php

Synopsis for the Gulf of Mexico
1109 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Broad low pressure in the SW Gulf of Mexico will
drift NW toward Tampico Mexico today, with a diminishing chance
of intensifying to a tropical cyclone. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate ESE winds will persist S of a ridge in the northern
Gulf of Mexico through tonight. The ridge will shift eastward on
Wednesday. Expect S to SE return flow for most of the basin
through Friday.

[mcheer23]

Shouldn't develop. Expect heavy rain...heaviest south of 59. Wouldn't be shocked to see isolated totals 10+

[DoctorMu]

The Canadian model makes a lot more lemonade than GFS. Any stocking up before July and August in College Station is a good thing, as long as the tropical system isn't strong or overstays its welcome.