June 2019: Showers/Storms Increasing To End June

[BlueJay]

Summer has come early. It's hot!

[stormlover]

Didn’t know rain was in the forecast

[unome]

The afternoon Updated Weather Predication Center Quantitative Precipitation Forecast has increased the rain chances beginning Tuesday and increasing on Wednesday and Thursday. I would use caution with these early rainfall outlooks. The sensible weather solutions are still highly speculative as of this afternoon.

fingers crossed for at least an inch or more, because I really hate watering all summer

will keep an eye on the discussions https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/discuss.shtml

[srainhoutx]

The Weather Prediction Center issues a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall for Wednesday...

[unome]

getting tropical

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2m

[srainhoutx]

Our SW Gulf area of disturbed weather continues to fester, but still lacks a clear cut surface low reflection this morning. It looks like a sharp trough axis the extends from the far SW Bay of Campeche on NE to near Tampico at this time. A much broader area of lower pressure associated with the monsoonal gyre is situated over the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. High Pressure over Florida is easing off to the East and a deep Western trough is very slowly inching toward our Region from the Pacific Coast. The tropical disturbance has about 24 to 36 hours to organize before wind shear from the approaching Western trough impinges as the disturbance lifts North. Squally tropical downpours appears to be the greatest threat for Texas and Louisiana at this time. We will continue to monitor.

[srainhoutx]

For the second day, the National Hurricane Center has cancelled reconnaissance mission to investigate 91L (SW Gulf Disturbance). Reconnaissance has been tasked for tomorrow if necessary...

Code: Select all

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EDT MON 03 JUNE 2019
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z JUNE 2019
         TCPOD NUMBER.....19-006

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA (BAY OF CAMPECHE)
       FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 72          FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 75
       A. 04/1900Z                   A. 05/0530Z,1130Z
       B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST         B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
       C. 04/1545Z                   C. 05/0230Z
       D. 23.0N 96.5W                D. 24.5N 97.0W
       E. 04/1830Z TO 04/2330Z       E. 05/0500Z TO 05/1130Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT           F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM
       DEVELOPS AND REMAINS A THREAT.
    3. REMARK: THE MISSIONS TASKED IN TCPOD 19-005 WERE CANCELED BY
       NHC AT 03/1215Z.

[tireman4]

FXUS64 KHGX 031208
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
708 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2019

.DISCUSSION...

12Z TAF AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...

A few areas of patchy fog have been reported around Matagorda,
Wharton, eastern Fort Bend, and Liberty counties resulting in
occasional periods of MVFR to IFR across KSGR and KLBX. Fog is
expected to burn off quickly within the next hour or so. Winds
were calm to light and variable overnight and early this morning.

Mostly VFR conditions expected during the forecast period with S
to SE winds at 10 knots or less, slightly higher in isolated areas
during the afternoon hours. Iso/Sct seabreeze showers may develop
this afternoon mainly across Harris and Montgomery counties. Calm
to light variable winds expected once again tonight through early
Tuesday morning with possible areas of patchy fog mainly east of
I45.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2019/

SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Tuesday Afternoon]...
Clear to partly cloudy skies were observed during the night and
early morning hours across the Houston/Galveston forecast region.
Surface high pressure dominated the local weather conditions, little
to no rainfall activity detected on the radar and calm to light wind
flow. A few isolated areas of patchy fog was reported around
Matagorda, Wharton, eastern Fort Bend, and Liberty counties. Fog is
expected to burn off quickly after sunrise.

A similar weather pattern as yesterday can be expected today with
overall dry conditions and high temperatures ranging between the low
to mid 90s this afternoon. A few isolated to scattered showers or
thunderstorms on the seabreeze may develop this afternoon,
particularly across Harris and Montgomery counties, thus increased
the POPs for these areas to account for it but is subject to
change as the day progresses. Onshore winds will prevail today at
10 knots or less, slightly higher over isolated areas during the
afternoon hours. Calm to light winds expected this evening through
early Tuesday morning.

Surface high pressure is expected to shift eastward along the Gulf
coast today as an upper level low develops across Southwest CONUS
and gradually moves towards the southern and central plains.
Meanwhile, a tropical disturbance or invest 91L located over the Bay
of Campeche is expected to move northwestward towards the NE coast
of Mexico. As the disturbance moves further northward, onshore flow
will transport moisture from the Gulf into SE Texas Tuesday. Model
guidance continues to indicate the rich tropical moisture associated
with the disturbance moving across the southern counties of SE Texas
by late Tuesday morning and encompassing the CWA Tuesday night. PW
values range up to around 2.0 inches Tuesday night. Periods of
showers and thunderstorms are expected to begin late Tuesday morning
and afternoon, possibly continuing through Thursday. The current
forecast includes POPs of up to around 50 percent but may be changed
as the disturbance nears our local region on Tuesday. Please
continue to monitor the latest forecast. 24

LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Monday]...

Today`s mid level ridge will be weakening over the area tonight
and moving into the Central Gulf Tuesday restrengthening and
Eastern Gulf Tuesday night. This is going to set the stage for the
rainfall Tuesday through Thursday.

Moisture from the tropical disturbance in the extreme Western
Gulf will be streaming into the region. PW Tuesday afternoon of 2"
over the coastal areas pushes further inland while the core of
2.6-2.8" PW over the Gulf well southeast of Brownsville spreads
north and gradually diminishes but with the addition of more
favorable moisture transport aimed at SETX Wednesday morning.
2.2-2.4" PW should be over SETX Wednesday afternoon. Expect
frequent showers spreading north from the coastal areas Tuesday
night and early Wednesday morning then intruding into SETX.
Currently this should paint the western half of the area with
widespread 1/4-1/2" amounts and probably some stripes of greater
amounts probably focused south of the I-10 corridor...which is
probably going to become a theme. Rain cooled air, abundant clouds
with the deep tropical moisture and the track of the remnants of
91L (still big questions on this with some models over land, some
popping back offshore and some that just keep it over water) but
expecting it to be somewhere near the Coastal Bend to Matagorda
Bay area Wednesday afternoon and strongly sheared. Speed
convergence should help to focus the rains Wednesday night over
the southern areas but again some bullseyes are possible and with
the amount of moisture in the airmass these could be considerable
rainfall bullseyes. Thursday the upper trough is moving through NW
TX/W OK and subtropical jet is arcing into SETX from Big Bend
region this should begin to shunt the moisture axis eastward into
the southern and eastern half of the area through the day
Thursday. These storms should be very efficient with rainfall
rates easily in excess of 2"/hour. Street flooding is likely to be
a risk. The winds in the lower levels might support a brief spin
up near the coast but should be a very limited threat. Not
expecting much in the way of hail or strong damaging winds.
Rainfall should be the main issue with the system. Thursday night
into Friday the rains shift into LA with lingering lower POPs over
SETX. Saturday and Sunday should be hot and humid and may be
looking at heat index reading near the 105-107 degree range. Rain
chances will still be in the forecast over the weekend though low
and then will be watching the possibility of a weak cold front
moving into the region Monday afternoon/night. This should
bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Stay informed on the latest from the National Hurricane Center on
91L.

45

MARINE...

According to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook (0200 AM EDT),
the tropical disturbance or invest 91L is located over the Bay of
Campeche and continues to produce shower and thunderstorm activity.
The disturbance is expected to move slowly northwestward toward the
northeastern coast of Mexico. An increase in shower and thunderstorm
activity as well as onshore winds and seas is expected Tuesday
through Thursday. Tide levels are also expected to rise midweek
which may result in minor coastal flooding. Marine conditions should
improve Friday and during the upcoming weekend.
24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 93 73 92 74 86 / 0 0 40 50 80
Houston (IAH) 93 75 90 78 86 / 30 30 30 50 70
Galveston (GLS) 89 81 86 81 85 / 0 0 30 60 60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...45

[mcheer23]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located over the Bay of Campeche have become a little
better organized since yesterday. However, recent satellite-based
wind data indicate that the circulation of the low is elongated and
poorly defined. This system is expected to move slowly northwestward
toward the northeastern coast of Mexico, and could become a tropical
cyclone before it moves inland in a day or two. Regardless of
development, the disturbance will likely produce heavy rainfall over
portions of southern and eastern Mexico during the next few days.
Heavy rainfall is also likely to spread over southeastern Texas and
Louisiana through Thursday. The Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
mission for this afternoon has been canceled, however another
aircraft has been scheduled to investigate the disturbance tomorrow,
if necessary. Interests along the Gulf coast of Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[Cpv17]

The Weather Prediction Center issues a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall for Wednesday...

That’s kinda strange cuz from everything I’m seeing on the models so far it looks like only an inch or two.

[stormlover]

Models struggle with surge of tropical moisture

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 031711
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1211 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2019

.AVIATION...
Forecast of persistence looks tough to beat thru the daytime hours
Tue. Mainly VFR conditions with some intermittent MVFR cigs
possible 9-15z. Though not nil, precip chances should be low
enough to exclude from TAFs until Tue night. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 94 74 92 74 86 / 0 0 20 50 80
Houston (IAH) 95 75 92 78 86 / 20 20 20 50 70
Galveston (GLS) 90 80 89 81 85 / 10 10 30 60 60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 032034
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
334 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2019

.SHORT TERM [Tonight through Tuesday]...

Isolated precip has developed along the seabreeze and should persist
until we lose heating later this evening. No significant wx is
anticipated overnight or into Tuesday morning. Deeper Gulf moisture
will be making its way northward into the area during the afternoon
Tuesday. Look for increased precip coverage to be moving into the
waters during the day and iso/sct activity inland during the
afternoon hours. 47

.LONG TERM [Tuesday Evening Through Monday]...

Late Tuesday into Thursday will result in our next best batch of
showers and thunderstorms which will come in waves mostly over
Wednesday and Thursday. The atmosphere will be primed for the
possibility of locally heavy rainfall associated with deep tropical
moisture which will be surging from the Bay of Campeche, across the
western Gulf of Mexico and across the upper Texas coast. This deep
tropical moisture is associated with the 91L invest, which will move
slowly northwestward towards the northeastern coast of Mexico over
the next few days. Model guidance eventually shows this system
turning north northeastward by late week, eventually becoming
embedded with the upper level trough axis which is also supposed to
swing across N TX and the Plains late Thursday and through Friday
before pushing east of SE TX. As NHC has discussed in their latest
update, latest satellite-based wind data is continuing to show a
poorly defined circulation, with the area of low pressure elongated
rather than symmetrical at this time. Latest global guidance keeps
the NAM being the most aggressive model as well as the fastest
with overall storm motion, showing a better defined system as it
moves along the upper Texas coastline. On the other hand, the
ECMWF and GFS keep this system as a rather disorganized area of
low pressure, which essentially morphs with the upper level trough
axis that swings through the region late Thursday into early
Friday. Trends in latest runs of these models leads to me believe
the GFS and ECMWF have a better handle on the disturbance. This
system will encounter strong shear as it moves into the NW section
of the Gulf of Mexico which will likely hinder further
development come Thursday.

Regardless of development, the impacts to SE TX remain the same. A
surge of high precipitable water values (PWs) are expected to invade
the upper TX coast by Tuesday afternoon, ranging between 2.2 to 2.5
inches. These higher PW values will stick around Wednesday into late
Thursday. These values are well above normal for this time of year,
with normal PW values near 1.5 inches. Some of the short term
guidance such as the NAM and TT WRF are trying to develop an axis of
convergence, but at this time the location of this boundary is still
in flux, and should be able to be narrowed down as the event gets
closer. At this time, we are still calling for rainfall rates of 2
to 3 inches per hour, with the highest rainfall totals possible
along the coast and across portions of Harris, Liberty,
Montgomery and San Jacinto counties. Isolated locally heavy
rainfall will be possible with stronger storms, as well as with
training storms, or storms that continue to develop over the same
area over and over again.

As we move into the weekend, heat will again be the main weather
hazard, as drier air ushers in behind the upper level trough axis
and mostly clear skies will prevail. As a result, temperatures will
be on the rise, with high temperatures Friday through Sunday
forecast to be in the middle 90s, with maximum apparent temperatures
in the low 100s area wide. More widespread cloud cover returns
Monday as a weak frontal boundary tries to stall out over the
region. This will bring another round of precipitation at the start
of next week. Therefore, holding on to 20s/30s Monday and Tuesday to
account for this frontal boundary which looks to stall out between
the coast and I-10. In the latest model runs, the ECMWF is the
fastest with bringing this frontal boundary into the area, followed
by the GFS and Canadian by about six hours. This boundary will
wobble N and S across SE TX before eventually diminishing Wednesday
morning.

Hathaway

&&

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

Forecast of persistence looks tough to beat thru the daytime hours
Tue. Mainly VFR conditions with some intermittent MVFR cigs
possible 9-15z. Though not nil, precip chances should be low
enough to exclude from TAFs until Tue night. 47

&&

.MARINE...

Look for winds and seas to begin increasing tomorrow as the pres
gradient tightens and swell from the disturbed wx in the Yucatan to
begin moving into the upper Tx coastal waters. Small craft
advisories will likely be needed by Tue night...and probably persist
into Thursday. In addition, tide/water levels will rise to between 1-
1.5 feet above normal. This added to the astronomical values and
wave run up will probably cause some coastal flood issues around
times of high tide late Tue night-Thurs. Think Gulf facing areas
mostly east of Freeport will be the problem areas, but later shifts
still have time to evaluate and issue coastal flood advisory if
needed. Building surf and rip currents will be increasing risks
along area beaches. Improving marine conditions are expected as we
head into the weekend.

** Note: some models are developing a closed circulation near
Matagorda Bay late Wed rather than an open trof. Not confident how
this thing is gonna evolve so wind directions could be off during
the Wed afternoon & Thursday timeframe if this occurs. In that case
we`ll see a period of north & northwest winds behind the low as it
passes. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 74 92 74 85 73 / 0 20 50 80 60
Houston (IAH) 75 93 78 86 75 / 20 20 50 70 70
Galveston (GLS) 80 89 81 85 80 / 10 30 60 70 80

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...47
LONG TERM...Hathaway

[don]

The Weather Prediction Center issues a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall for Wednesday...

That’s kinda strange cuz from everything I’m seeing on the models so far it looks like only an inch or two.

It's not strange...with precipitable waters forecast to get too as much as 2.5 inches, there is potential that any storms that do develop on Wednesday/Thursday have the potential to produce very heavy rainfall in a short amount of time due to the potential of high rainfall rates. Global models tend to lack the resolution to detect these mesocale features.I've seen many events through the years when models showed the area getting an inch or two and someone ends up with 6+ inches of rain, it's just the nature of living in a subtropical climate. Not to mention the future organization and direction of 91l will also play a large part when it comes to how much rainfall we may get in Southeast Texas. The latest run of the Texas Tech WRF shows the potential for mid week we need to pay close attention to 91l rather it develops or not.

http://www.atmo.ttu.edu/bancell/real_ti ... _dbz&run=0

[srainhoutx]

The good folks at HGX are suggesting to various partners that 2 to 3 inch per hour rainfall rates are likely Wednesday into Thursday where the heavier downpours occur. Now which neighborhoods see the greatest totals for this event just cannot be determined today. That said the afternoon Updated Weather Prediction Center Quantitative Precipitation Forecast has increased for the next 5 Days.

[jasons2k]

I noticed none of the intensity models cross the TS threshold any longer. Just a rainy slopfest. I could use some.

[Cpv17]

I noticed none of the intensity models cross the TS threshold any longer. Just a rainy slopfest. I could use some.

That would be the best case scenario mainly because tropical storms or hurricanes can greatly change the weather patterns. Right now Texas is overall in a decent pattern for rain. We want that to continue.

[don]

Latest 3k NAM is a little concerning showing up to 12+ inches in parts of Southeast Texas fwiw.

[srainhoutx]

The Weather Prediction Center Quantitative Precipitation Forecast now suggests some locations in SE Texas may see 5 to 10 inches of rainfall over the next 3 Days. A Moderate Risk for Excessive Rainfall as been issued for Wednesday.

[srainhoutx]

Tuesday morning weather briefing from Jeff:

Heavy rainfall increasingly likely tonight-early Thursday

Flash Flood Watch will be in effect from midnight tonight-Thursday morning.

Street flooding likely and significant rises are area bayous and creeks possible.

Discussion:
Large plume of deep tropical moisture associated with tropical disturbance 91L over the SW Gulf of Mexico will rapidly advance northward today and into the TX coast. PWS will increase from 1.6 to nearly 2.0 inches by this evening and into the 2.3-2.6 inch range on Wednesday while the air mass becomes nearly saturated. Moisture levels of this magnitude are impressive even for this area in June and can result in intense rainfall rates due to the large vertical depth of the moisture reducing evaporation. Expect numerous showers and thunderstorms to begin to develop from SW to NE late this afternoon as the moisture begins to arrive into SE TX. Ingredients becoming increasingly favorable for more sustained heavy rainfall late tonight into Wednesday as low level convergence increases over the area and low level inflow increases off the Gulf of Mexico while upper level divergence increases ahead of the approaching trough over the SW US. A low level convergence boundary may become established between the US 59 corridor and the coast and help to organize and focus thunderstorms and heavy rainfall. This pattern remains in place Wednesday and Wednesday night while 91L moves up the TX coast and likely either across SE TX or just offshore over our coastal waters.

Rainfall Amounts:
WPC has upgraded the area into a Moderate risk for flash flooding on Wednesday and increased the rainfall amounts for the region and this seems reasonable based on the latest guidance. Widespread rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches with isolated totals up to 6 inches will be possible. Storm motions will be fast (15-25mph) in the strong SSW to NNE steering flow, but the pattern strongly favors training of cells in bands and lines, especially near any low level boundary that may develop. Rainfall amounts could certainly be higher than shown given the extreme levels of moisture that will be in place. Will favor the heaviest rainfall along and S of the US 59 corridor at this time, but the entire area is at risk. It should be noted that some of the convection allowing models show a strong heavy rainfall signal tonight into Wednesday, and this will need to be monitored closely today.

Rainfall rates of 2-3 inches per hour are certainly possible in this type of air mass if convection can become sustained which will result in rapid street flooding. Rises on area creeks and bayous will be possible especially in area that see repeated rainfall.

Tides:
Winds will begin to increase this afternoon and evening over the coastal waters which will help to build seas on Wednesday. Tides are forecasted to reach near 3.5-4.0 ft on Wednesday which may cause minor coastal flooding on Bolivar and low lying coastal area on the west end of Galveston, Surfside, and in SE Harris County. A coastal flood advisory may be required on Wednesday.