June 2019: Showers/Storms Increasing To End June

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don
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Cpv17 wrote: Sat Jun 01, 2019 3:13 pm
Belmer wrote: Sat Jun 01, 2019 1:34 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Sat Jun 01, 2019 1:19 pm How would that track give us any rain? We would be west of the center. Seems like it would all get blown into Louisiana?
IF 91L doesn't fully move onshore and instead rides up the Mexico coastline into south TX, we'll still be on the 'dirty' side of the system so-to-speak since 91L will be southwest of SETX. This will bring an onslaught of moisture fetched our way as it moves north and then probably NE near the TX/LA border. As the upper level trough out near California begins slowly moving eastward, 91L will begin to feel its effects as shear ahead of the trough should increase from south-north which will really elongate the system making it difficult for it to maintain a tight closed circulation. If 91L does develop into a named storm, I don't expect it to strengthen more than a moderate TS and less likely it will intensify as it nears our coast. I think another thing that may inhibit any strengthening is dry air from Mexico possibly getting entrain into the system. Lots of wildfires in Mexico last week...

Either way, despite it possibly becoming a TS or remaining a weak area of low pressure, if forecast/track remains constant, Wednesday into Thursday could be pretty soggy around here.
Well neither the GFS or the Euro have much rain across southeast TX. Maybe an inch. Think those totals are going to increase?
Remember until we get a tropical cyclone assuming the system forms into a cyclone that is, its anyone's guess how much and where the heaviest rainfall amounts might be. Global model qpf amounts should be taken with a grain of salt this far out, as qpf amounts and locations could quickly change depending on the organization and direction of the disturbance. Not to mention also mesoscale features that cannot be "sniffed" out by the lower resolution global models, which could also play a factor in next weeks rain. Just something to watch for now...
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srainhoutx wrote: Sat Jun 01, 2019 4:23 pm The afternoon 7 Day QPF for SE Texas suggests that Bryan/College Station are the "driest". While we know we will NOT see a repeat of 18 years ago when Allison came calling June 4, 2001, rain chances look encouraging. I'll take a quick moving system any day over a stagnant upper air pattern... ;)
I do not know why there would a dry area over Bryan/College Station. I have seen that happen before.
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Without a defined center of circulation to initiate from (much less without a reliable way to determine shape/breadth of the system - whatever that may be), there is simply no way to adequately forecast local effects. Anything discussed/forecasted prior to Monday afternoon is purely conjecture, IMO.
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https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... sector=mex

quite the long arc of storms

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M ... WOAT.shtml
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A low pressure system located over the southern Bay of Campeche
continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
This system is expected to move slowly west-northwestward toward the
coast of Mexico, and it could become a tropical cyclone before it
moves inland early next week. Regardless of development, the
disturbance will likely produce heavy rainfall over portions of
southern and eastern Mexico during the next few days. An Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
disturbance on Sunday, if necessary. Interests along the Gulf coast
of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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The QPF map is getting colorful for our area on every run. We shall see!
Mike
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Sunday morning weather briefing from Jeff:

Broad area of low pressure continues over the Bay of Campeche.

Increasing rainfall along the TX coast Tuesday…heavy rains possible Wednesday and Thursday.

Discussion:
Satellite images and surface observations (land and sea) indicate that the elongated trough of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche has become slightly better organize yesterday and overnight with a more closed, but still broad surface circulation having formed. Showers and thunderstorms remain highly disorganized around the surface low which is usual with these sort of systems. The transition of the trough axis into a closed surface low and development of these rather large type systems usually takes days. The system has moved little since yesterday morning with possibly a slightly WNW drift and this is due to high pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Upper level conditions remain favorable for slow development over water temperatures in the mid 80’s.

Track:
Guidance is in good agreement with a slow WNW drift of 91L for the next 24-48 hours followed by a turn toward the N and then the NNE and an increase in forward speed. The northward turn is in response to the high pressure along the northern Gulf coast breaking down and shifting SE into the eastern Gulf of Mexico while a strong trough of low pressure approaches the southern plains from the SW US. These two large scale features will result in a developing SSW to NNE steering pattern over the western Gulf of Mexico Tuesday-Thursday. 91L will approach the eastern coast of Mexico and possibly move just inland before turning toward the N. It is highly uncertain if the system actually moves inland, hugs the coast, or remains just offshore, but by late Tuesday should be just S of Brownsville and moving northward. More importantly a large plume of deep tropical moisture will be arriving along the TX coast by Tuesday into Wednesday.

Intensity:
91L has time to develop over the next 48 hours into a tropical storm, but as mentioned above these type of systems require more time than others. Most of the intensity guidance keeps 91L as either a tropical depression or weak tropical storm. As the system passes to the north of Brownsville it will enter into a stronger low to mid level southerly flow which will begin to impart strong shear effects over any surface low. Additionally the low level flow will be speeding up and none of this is favorable for continued development of a tropical system. Additionally, dry air from downsloping winds off the mountains of MX could also mix into the overall circulation.

Impacts:

Regardless of development…heavy rain, high seas, and high tides are likely on the way by mid week.

Overnight model runs have sped up the time of arrival of deep tropical moisture associated with this system to Tuesday midday into the afternoon and expect increasing rain chances from south to north on Tuesday. These rains should be able to be handled, but will go into saturating the ground ahead of more sustained heavy rainfall Wednesday and Thursday. Low level inflow increases Wednesday and Thursday and the potential for widespread rainfall with bands of excessive rainfall will be possible. Air mass will become nearly saturated with PWS pushing 2.3-2.5 inches (extremely tropical) and a warm layer of air very deep vertically. This all points to very efficient rainfall production and high short duration rainfall rates.

Onshore flow will also be increasing especially if any sort of defined surface circulation remains intact along the TX coast. Tides will already run above normal this week due to lunar phase and building seas into the 6-9 foot range on Wednesday and Thursday with long period swells will only push tides higher. Currently looking at 3.0-3.5 ft above MLLW (barnacle line) by mid week which could cause issues on Bolivar. 4.0-4.5 ft is when more widespread coastal flooding would be a concern over a larger area and within Galveston and Matagorda Bays.

Note: careful of use of “model track guidance” available on the internet and social media. Many times these model plots only paint a portion of the whole picture

As always when dealing with a tropical system…the forecast will be changing…stay up to date with the forecast.

A USAF hurricane hunter aircraft is tasked to investigate the system later today if needed.
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I know it’s the nam and it sucks but it’s interesting

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Is 91L still expected to ride the TX coast and enter the TX LA area or does this have a chance to curve NE around the high and stay out at sea?
Mike
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The afternoon Updated Weather Predication Center Quantitative Precipitation Forecast has increased the rain chances beginning Tuesday and increasing on Wednesday and Thursday. I would use caution with these early rainfall outlooks. The sensible weather solutions are still highly speculative as of this afternoon.
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Summer has come early. It's hot!
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Didn’t know rain was in the forecast
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srainhoutx wrote: Sun Jun 02, 2019 3:45 pm The afternoon Updated Weather Predication Center Quantitative Precipitation Forecast has increased the rain chances beginning Tuesday and increasing on Wednesday and Thursday. I would use caution with these early rainfall outlooks. The sensible weather solutions are still highly speculative as of this afternoon.
fingers crossed for at least an inch or more, because I really hate watering all summer

will keep an eye on the discussions https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/discuss.shtml
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The Weather Prediction Center issues a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall for Wednesday...
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Our SW Gulf area of disturbed weather continues to fester, but still lacks a clear cut surface low reflection this morning. It looks like a sharp trough axis the extends from the far SW Bay of Campeche on NE to near Tampico at this time. A much broader area of lower pressure associated with the monsoonal gyre is situated over the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. High Pressure over Florida is easing off to the East and a deep Western trough is very slowly inching toward our Region from the Pacific Coast. The tropical disturbance has about 24 to 36 hours to organize before wind shear from the approaching Western trough impinges as the disturbance lifts North. Squally tropical downpours appears to be the greatest threat for Texas and Louisiana at this time. We will continue to monitor.
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For the second day, the National Hurricane Center has cancelled reconnaissance mission to investigate 91L (SW Gulf Disturbance). Reconnaissance has been tasked for tomorrow if necessary...

Code: Select all

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EDT MON 03 JUNE 2019
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z JUNE 2019
         TCPOD NUMBER.....19-006

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA (BAY OF CAMPECHE)
       FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 72          FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 75
       A. 04/1900Z                   A. 05/0530Z,1130Z
       B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST         B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
       C. 04/1545Z                   C. 05/0230Z
       D. 23.0N 96.5W                D. 24.5N 97.0W
       E. 04/1830Z TO 04/2330Z       E. 05/0500Z TO 05/1130Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT           F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM
       DEVELOPS AND REMAINS A THREAT.
    3. REMARK: THE MISSIONS TASKED IN TCPOD 19-005 WERE CANCELED BY
       NHC AT 03/1215Z.
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FXUS64 KHGX 031208
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
708 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2019

.DISCUSSION...

12Z TAF AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...

A few areas of patchy fog have been reported around Matagorda,
Wharton, eastern Fort Bend, and Liberty counties resulting in
occasional periods of MVFR to IFR across KSGR and KLBX. Fog is
expected to burn off quickly within the next hour or so. Winds
were calm to light and variable overnight and early this morning.

Mostly VFR conditions expected during the forecast period with S
to SE winds at 10 knots or less, slightly higher in isolated areas
during the afternoon hours. Iso/Sct seabreeze showers may develop
this afternoon mainly across Harris and Montgomery counties. Calm
to light variable winds expected once again tonight through early
Tuesday morning with possible areas of patchy fog mainly east of
I45.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2019/

SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Tuesday Afternoon]...
Clear to partly cloudy skies were observed during the night and
early morning hours across the Houston/Galveston forecast region.
Surface high pressure dominated the local weather conditions, little
to no rainfall activity detected on the radar and calm to light wind
flow. A few isolated areas of patchy fog was reported around
Matagorda, Wharton, eastern Fort Bend, and Liberty counties. Fog is
expected to burn off quickly after sunrise.

A similar weather pattern as yesterday can be expected today with
overall dry conditions and high temperatures ranging between the low
to mid 90s this afternoon. A few isolated to scattered showers or
thunderstorms on the seabreeze may develop this afternoon,
particularly across Harris and Montgomery counties, thus increased
the POPs for these areas to account for it but is subject to
change as the day progresses. Onshore winds will prevail today at
10 knots or less, slightly higher over isolated areas during the
afternoon hours. Calm to light winds expected this evening through
early Tuesday morning.

Surface high pressure is expected to shift eastward along the Gulf
coast today as an upper level low develops across Southwest CONUS
and gradually moves towards the southern and central plains.
Meanwhile, a tropical disturbance or invest 91L located over the Bay
of Campeche is expected to move northwestward towards the NE coast
of Mexico. As the disturbance moves further northward, onshore flow
will transport moisture from the Gulf into SE Texas Tuesday. Model
guidance continues to indicate the rich tropical moisture associated
with the disturbance moving across the southern counties of SE Texas
by late Tuesday morning and encompassing the CWA Tuesday night. PW
values range up to around 2.0 inches Tuesday night. Periods of
showers and thunderstorms are expected to begin late Tuesday morning
and afternoon, possibly continuing through Thursday. The current
forecast includes POPs of up to around 50 percent but may be changed
as the disturbance nears our local region on Tuesday. Please
continue to monitor the latest forecast. 24

LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Monday]...

Today`s mid level ridge will be weakening over the area tonight
and moving into the Central Gulf Tuesday restrengthening and
Eastern Gulf Tuesday night. This is going to set the stage for the
rainfall Tuesday through Thursday.

Moisture from the tropical disturbance in the extreme Western
Gulf will be streaming into the region. PW Tuesday afternoon of 2"
over the coastal areas pushes further inland while the core of
2.6-2.8" PW over the Gulf well southeast of Brownsville spreads
north and gradually diminishes but with the addition of more
favorable moisture transport aimed at SETX Wednesday morning.
2.2-2.4" PW should be over SETX Wednesday afternoon. Expect
frequent showers spreading north from the coastal areas Tuesday
night and early Wednesday morning then intruding into SETX.
Currently this should paint the western half of the area with
widespread 1/4-1/2" amounts and probably some stripes of greater
amounts probably focused south of the I-10 corridor...which is
probably going to become a theme. Rain cooled air, abundant clouds
with the deep tropical moisture and the track of the remnants of
91L (still big questions on this with some models over land, some
popping back offshore and some that just keep it over water) but
expecting it to be somewhere near the Coastal Bend to Matagorda
Bay area Wednesday afternoon and strongly sheared. Speed
convergence should help to focus the rains Wednesday night over
the southern areas but again some bullseyes are possible and with
the amount of moisture in the airmass these could be considerable
rainfall bullseyes. Thursday the upper trough is moving through NW
TX/W OK and subtropical jet is arcing into SETX from Big Bend
region this should begin to shunt the moisture axis eastward into
the southern and eastern half of the area through the day
Thursday. These storms should be very efficient with rainfall
rates easily in excess of 2"/hour. Street flooding is likely to be
a risk. The winds in the lower levels might support a brief spin
up near the coast but should be a very limited threat. Not
expecting much in the way of hail or strong damaging winds.
Rainfall should be the main issue with the system. Thursday night
into Friday the rains shift into LA with lingering lower POPs over
SETX. Saturday and Sunday should be hot and humid and may be
looking at heat index reading near the 105-107 degree range. Rain
chances will still be in the forecast over the weekend though low
and then will be watching the possibility of a weak cold front
moving into the region Monday afternoon/night. This should
bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Stay informed on the latest from the National Hurricane Center on
91L.

45

MARINE...

According to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook (0200 AM EDT),
the tropical disturbance or invest 91L is located over the Bay of
Campeche and continues to produce shower and thunderstorm activity.
The disturbance is expected to move slowly northwestward toward the
northeastern coast of Mexico. An increase in shower and thunderstorm
activity as well as onshore winds and seas is expected Tuesday
through Thursday. Tide levels are also expected to rise midweek
which may result in minor coastal flooding. Marine conditions should
improve Friday and during the upcoming weekend.
24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 93 73 92 74 86 / 0 0 40 50 80
Houston (IAH) 93 75 90 78 86 / 30 30 30 50 70
Galveston (GLS) 89 81 86 81 85 / 0 0 30 60 60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...45
mcheer23
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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located over the Bay of Campeche have become a little
better organized since yesterday. However, recent satellite-based
wind data indicate that the circulation of the low is elongated and
poorly defined. This system is expected to move slowly northwestward
toward the northeastern coast of Mexico, and could become a tropical
cyclone before it moves inland in a day or two. Regardless of
development, the disturbance will likely produce heavy rainfall over
portions of southern and eastern Mexico during the next few days.
Heavy rainfall is also likely to spread over southeastern Texas and
Louisiana through Thursday. The Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
mission for this afternoon has been canceled, however another
aircraft has been scheduled to investigate the disturbance tomorrow,
if necessary. Interests along the Gulf coast of Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
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srainhoutx wrote: Mon Jun 03, 2019 4:01 am The Weather Prediction Center issues a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall for Wednesday...
That’s kinda strange cuz from everything I’m seeing on the models so far it looks like only an inch or two.
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