June 2019: Showers/Storms Increasing To End June

[srainhoutx]

Hurricane Hunters have been tasked to investigate the disturbance in the SW Gulf tomorrow...

Code: Select all

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT SAT 01 JUNE 2019
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 02/1100Z TO 03/1100Z JUNE 2019
         TCPOD NUMBER.....19-004

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA (BAY OF CAMPECHE)
       FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 72          FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 73
       A. 02/1900Z                   A. 03/0530Z,1130Z
       B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST         B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
       C. 02/1600Z                   C. 03/0230Z
       D. 19.0N 95.0W                D. 19.5N 95.5W
       E. 02/1830Z TO 02/2330Z       E. 03/0500Z TO 03/1130Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT           F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM
       DEVELOPS AND REMAINS A THREAT.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

[cperk]

We need to keep a close eye on 91L and like Jeff mentioned that high is forecasted to weaken in the coming days.

[Cromagnum]

And here we go, right on day 1

[DoctorMu]

Welcome to MOCO dj!

Yes! Welcome to the land of trees!!

haha I'm jealous. It takes a Herculean effort just to grow a 12-20 foot tree in College Station!

[DoctorMu]

There seems to be the MoJO for a possible tropical wave drifting our way, and out of the gyre, this month.

Hopefully enough shear this hurricane season to avoid another Michael. Next time the target on the Gulf Coast could be more heavily populated.

...and enough steering currents to avoid a Harvey or Florence.

[srainhoutx]

The 2 PM EDT Update from the NHC gives the Bay of Campeche disturbance a 60% chance of developing the next 48 hours. The Weather Prediction Center morning UPDATED surface charts are suggesting a weak low along the East Coast of Mexico moving N and then NE between Day 3 and Day 6. Rainfall probabilities appear to be increasing as well.

[Cpv17]

The 2 PM EDT Update from the NHC gives the Bay of Campeche disturbance a 60% chance of developing the next 48 hours. The Weather Prediction Center morning UPDATED surface charts are suggesting a weak low along the East Coast of Mexico moving N and then NE between Day 3 and Day 6. Rainfall probabilities appear to be increasing as well.

How would that track give us any rain? We would be west of the center. Seems like it would all get blown into Louisiana?

[Belmer]

How would that track give us any rain? We would be west of the center. Seems like it would all get blown into Louisiana?

IF 91L doesn't fully move onshore and instead rides up the Mexico coastline into south TX, we'll still be on the 'dirty' side of the system so-to-speak since 91L will be southwest of SETX. This will bring an onslaught of moisture fetched our way as it moves north and then probably NE near the TX/LA border. As the upper level trough out near California begins slowly moving eastward, 91L will begin to feel its effects as shear ahead of the trough should increase from south-north which will really elongate the system making it difficult for it to maintain a tight closed circulation. If 91L does develop into a named storm, I don't expect it to strengthen more than a moderate TS and less likely it will intensify as it nears our coast. I think another thing that may inhibit any strengthening is dry air from Mexico possibly getting entrain into the system. Lots of wildfires in Mexico last week...

Either way, despite it possibly becoming a TS or remaining a weak area of low pressure, if forecast/track remains constant, Wednesday into Thursday could be pretty soggy around here.

[Cpv17]

How would that track give us any rain? We would be west of the center. Seems like it would all get blown into Louisiana?

IF 91L doesn't fully move onshore and instead rides up the Mexico coastline into south TX, we'll still be on the 'dirty' side of the system so-to-speak since 91L will be southwest of SETX. This will bring an onslaught of moisture fetched our way as it moves north and then probably NE near the TX/LA border. As the upper level trough out near California begins slowly moving eastward, 91L will begin to feel its effects as shear ahead of the trough should increase from south-north which will really elongate the system making it difficult for it to maintain a tight closed circulation. If 91L does develop into a named storm, I don't expect it to strengthen more than a moderate TS and less likely it will intensify as it nears our coast. I think another thing that may inhibit any strengthening is dry air from Mexico possibly getting entrain into the system. Lots of wildfires in Mexico last week...

Either way, despite it possibly becoming a TS or remaining a weak area of low pressure, if forecast/track remains constant, Wednesday into Thursday could be pretty soggy around here.

Well neither the GFS or the Euro have much rain across southeast TX. Maybe an inch. Think those totals are going to increase?

[srainhoutx]

The afternoon 7 Day QPF for SE Texas suggests that Bryan/College Station are the "driest". While we know we will NOT see a repeat of 18 years ago when Allison came calling June 4, 2001, rain chances look encouraging. I'll take a quick moving system any day over a stagnant upper air pattern...

[don]

How would that track give us any rain? We would be west of the center. Seems like it would all get blown into Louisiana?

IF 91L doesn't fully move onshore and instead rides up the Mexico coastline into south TX, we'll still be on the 'dirty' side of the system so-to-speak since 91L will be southwest of SETX. This will bring an onslaught of moisture fetched our way as it moves north and then probably NE near the TX/LA border. As the upper level trough out near California begins slowly moving eastward, 91L will begin to feel its effects as shear ahead of the trough should increase from south-north which will really elongate the system making it difficult for it to maintain a tight closed circulation. If 91L does develop into a named storm, I don't expect it to strengthen more than a moderate TS and less likely it will intensify as it nears our coast. I think another thing that may inhibit any strengthening is dry air from Mexico possibly getting entrain into the system. Lots of wildfires in Mexico last week...

Either way, despite it possibly becoming a TS or remaining a weak area of low pressure, if forecast/track remains constant, Wednesday into Thursday could be pretty soggy around here.

Well neither the GFS or the Euro have much rain across southeast TX. Maybe an inch. Think those totals are going to increase?

Remember until we get a tropical cyclone assuming the system forms into a cyclone that is, its anyone's guess how much and where the heaviest rainfall amounts might be. Global model qpf amounts should be taken with a grain of salt this far out, as qpf amounts and locations could quickly change depending on the organization and direction of the disturbance. Not to mention also mesoscale features that cannot be "sniffed" out by the lower resolution global models, which could also play a factor in next weeks rain. Just something to watch for now...

[Ptarmigan]

The afternoon 7 Day QPF for SE Texas suggests that Bryan/College Station are the "driest". While we know we will NOT see a repeat of 18 years ago when Allison came calling June 4, 2001, rain chances look encouraging. I'll take a quick moving system any day over a stagnant upper air pattern...

I do not know why there would a dry area over Bryan/College Station. I have seen that happen before.

[Pas_Bon]

Without a defined center of circulation to initiate from (much less without a reliable way to determine shape/breadth of the system - whatever that may be), there is simply no way to adequately forecast local effects. Anything discussed/forecasted prior to Monday afternoon is purely conjecture, IMO.

[unome]

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... sector=mex

quite the long arc of storms

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M ... WOAT.shtml

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A low pressure system located over the southern Bay of Campeche
continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
This system is expected to move slowly west-northwestward toward the
coast of Mexico, and it could become a tropical cyclone before it
moves inland early next week. Regardless of development, the
disturbance will likely produce heavy rainfall over portions of
southern and eastern Mexico during the next few days. An Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
disturbance on Sunday, if necessary. Interests along the Gulf coast
of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[unome]

from SPoRT https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/sport/

full disc here: https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/b ... _drop=show

[djmike]

The QPF map is getting colorful for our area on every run. We shall see!

[srainhoutx]

Sunday morning weather briefing from Jeff:

Broad area of low pressure continues over the Bay of Campeche.

Increasing rainfall along the TX coast Tuesday…heavy rains possible Wednesday and Thursday.

Discussion:
Satellite images and surface observations (land and sea) indicate that the elongated trough of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche has become slightly better organize yesterday and overnight with a more closed, but still broad surface circulation having formed. Showers and thunderstorms remain highly disorganized around the surface low which is usual with these sort of systems. The transition of the trough axis into a closed surface low and development of these rather large type systems usually takes days. The system has moved little since yesterday morning with possibly a slightly WNW drift and this is due to high pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Upper level conditions remain favorable for slow development over water temperatures in the mid 80’s.

Track:
Guidance is in good agreement with a slow WNW drift of 91L for the next 24-48 hours followed by a turn toward the N and then the NNE and an increase in forward speed. The northward turn is in response to the high pressure along the northern Gulf coast breaking down and shifting SE into the eastern Gulf of Mexico while a strong trough of low pressure approaches the southern plains from the SW US. These two large scale features will result in a developing SSW to NNE steering pattern over the western Gulf of Mexico Tuesday-Thursday. 91L will approach the eastern coast of Mexico and possibly move just inland before turning toward the N. It is highly uncertain if the system actually moves inland, hugs the coast, or remains just offshore, but by late Tuesday should be just S of Brownsville and moving northward. More importantly a large plume of deep tropical moisture will be arriving along the TX coast by Tuesday into Wednesday.

Intensity:
91L has time to develop over the next 48 hours into a tropical storm, but as mentioned above these type of systems require more time than others. Most of the intensity guidance keeps 91L as either a tropical depression or weak tropical storm. As the system passes to the north of Brownsville it will enter into a stronger low to mid level southerly flow which will begin to impart strong shear effects over any surface low. Additionally the low level flow will be speeding up and none of this is favorable for continued development of a tropical system. Additionally, dry air from downsloping winds off the mountains of MX could also mix into the overall circulation.

Impacts:

Regardless of development…heavy rain, high seas, and high tides are likely on the way by mid week.

Overnight model runs have sped up the time of arrival of deep tropical moisture associated with this system to Tuesday midday into the afternoon and expect increasing rain chances from south to north on Tuesday. These rains should be able to be handled, but will go into saturating the ground ahead of more sustained heavy rainfall Wednesday and Thursday. Low level inflow increases Wednesday and Thursday and the potential for widespread rainfall with bands of excessive rainfall will be possible. Air mass will become nearly saturated with PWS pushing 2.3-2.5 inches (extremely tropical) and a warm layer of air very deep vertically. This all points to very efficient rainfall production and high short duration rainfall rates.

Onshore flow will also be increasing especially if any sort of defined surface circulation remains intact along the TX coast. Tides will already run above normal this week due to lunar phase and building seas into the 6-9 foot range on Wednesday and Thursday with long period swells will only push tides higher. Currently looking at 3.0-3.5 ft above MLLW (barnacle line) by mid week which could cause issues on Bolivar. 4.0-4.5 ft is when more widespread coastal flooding would be a concern over a larger area and within Galveston and Matagorda Bays.

Note: careful of use of “model track guidance” available on the internet and social media. Many times these model plots only paint a portion of the whole picture

As always when dealing with a tropical system…the forecast will be changing…stay up to date with the forecast.

A USAF hurricane hunter aircraft is tasked to investigate the system later today if needed.

[stormlover]

I know it’s the nam and it sucks but it’s interesting

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0212&fh=84

[djmike]

Is 91L still expected to ride the TX coast and enter the TX LA area or does this have a chance to curve NE around the high and stay out at sea?

[srainhoutx]

The afternoon Updated Weather Predication Center Quantitative Precipitation Forecast has increased the rain chances beginning Tuesday and increasing on Wednesday and Thursday. I would use caution with these early rainfall outlooks. The sensible weather solutions are still highly speculative as of this afternoon.