June 2019: Showers/Storms Increasing To End June

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unome
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this is interesting, north of I-10 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/enhtstm/
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Ptarmigan
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unome wrote: Sun Jun 23, 2019 9:11 pm this is interesting, north of I-10 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/enhtstm/
Not often you see that in Southeast Texas.
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DoctorMu
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e: NOAA-NWS-ALERTS-TX125CFEF90430.SevereThunderstormWatch.125CFEFA0790TX.WNSWOU8.a60b6cdd7c6506cce9092c8f0bf900de from w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Sent: 21:36 CDT on 06-23-2019
Effective: 21:35 CDT on 06-23-2019
Expires: 04:00 CDT on 06-24-2019
Event: Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Alert:
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 438 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
TX

. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON BELL BOSQUE
BRAZOS BROWN BURLESON
BURNET CALLAHAN CHEROKEE
COMANCHE CORYELL EASTLAND
ELLIS ERATH FALLS
FREESTONE GRIMES HAMILTON
HENDERSON HILL HOOD
HOUSTON JOHNSON KAUFMAN
LAMPASAS LEE LEON
LIMESTONE LLANO MADISON
MCLENNAN MILAM MILLS
NAVARRO RAINS ROBERTSON
SAN SABA SMITH SOMERVELL
TRINITY VAN ZANDT WALKER
WILLIAMSON WOOD
Instructions:
Target Area:
Anderson
Bell
Bosque
Brazos
Brown
Burleson
Burnet
Callahan
Cherokee
Comanche
Coryell
Eastland
Ellis
Erath
Falls
Freestone
Grimes
Hamilton
Henderson
Hill
Hood
Houston
Johnson
Kaufman
Lampasas
Lee
Leon
Limestone
Llano
Madison
McLennan
Milam
Mills
Navarro
Rains
Robertson
San Saba
Smith
Somervell
Trinity
Van Zandt
Walker
Williamson
Wood
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DoctorMu
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unome wrote: Sun Jun 23, 2019 9:11 pm this is interesting, north of I-10 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/enhtstm/
Yeah, MCS in the DFW area headed our way.
unome
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nice to wake up to the sound of rain after the oppressive heat this last weekend
unome
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coming up on 2 inches in the last 3 hrs:

https://www.harriscountyfws.org/GageDet ... v=rainfall
unome
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from lows in the 80s to the 60s - happy dance...

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/getobext.php?sid=KDWH

wv.jpg
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Katdaddy
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A line of heavy thunderstorms is steadily approaching the Houston area just in time for the morning rush hour. The storms are below severe limits but will produce locally heavy rain this morning as the storms push through the area and off the coast later this morning.
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unome
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approaching 4.5", Willow Creek @ 249 https://www.harriscountyfws.org/GageDet ... v=rainfall
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jasons2k
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Nice to see rain on the radar again. I won’t have to worry about the lawn :)
unome
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jasons wrote: Mon Jun 24, 2019 6:21 am Nice to see rain on the radar again. I won’t have to worry about the lawn :)
my thoughts exactly, no watering this week :) the lightning was intense at times

http://gis.centerpointenergy.com/outage ... index.html
As of 6/24/2019 6:45:52 AM, CenterPoint Energy reporting 24233 Customers without lights. Next update in 5 Minutes.
unome
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https://www.etrviewoutage.com/map?state=tx
Affected Customers: 5,856
Last Updated: Jun 24, 6:55 AM
Montgomery County has the highest # of outages on their data/map
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MontgomeryCoWx
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2 inches of rain and serious lightning show this morning
Team #NeverSummer
Cromagnum
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Huge gust front in Rosharon
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srainhoutx
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Happy the rain/storms held together enough to give us a drink of water and cooler temperatures. Looks like another storm complex may drop into the area Tuesday as well as a chance of seabreeze showers/storms possible the rest of the work week. Increasing rain chance look possible for the weekend as a weakness/inverted trough becomes situated over us. We are half way through the year and no drought worries.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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srainhoutx
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Monday morning weather briefing from Jeff:

Line of strong thunderstorms with heavy rainfall continues to progress southward across the region and currently extends from Columbus to Freeport

Rainfall this morning has averaged 1-2 inches across much of Harris and surrounding continues with isolated totals of 5 inches near Tomball and 2-3 inches from The Woodlands to Cypress…2-3 inches over Bellaire and Meyerland…and 2-3 inches over the Baytown area.

Heaviest rainfall rates are shifting toward the coast with lingering lighter rates inland north of I-10. Complex of storms will continue to push SSW and offshore over the next few hours with rainfall gradually ending. While rainfall has been intense at times this morning resulting in some street flooding, bayous and creeks are well within their banks although Willow Creek near and downstream of Tomball is high.

Forecast:
Air mass is currently stabilizing behind this line of storms and while there will likely be some degree of clearing this afternoon any additional development should be isolated at best. Another shortwave trough moves into central TX on Tuesday and this feature looks to arrive into SE TX Tuesday afternoon during peak heating. Air mass will have had time to recharge by Tuesday afternoon and expect showers and thunderstorms to develop once again. Will need to keep an eye on cell motions of Tuesday afternoon as the steering column weakens and this could allow slow moving heavy rainfall.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Cromagnum
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Storming like crazy down in Lake Jackson
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 241147
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
647 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

.AVIATION...
Ongoing thunderstorms across metro and points south over the next
couple of hours...light rain letting up north of the city through
14 or 15Z. TSRA activity to work its way to the coast by 13Z and
then focus along coast and points offhsore for remainder of
morning. Afternoon VFR with few-sct low and mid level clouds with
light east to southeast winds. Overnight into early Tuesday
morning return to higher rain chances as a shortwave trough passes
across eastern Texas. VCSH possibly transitioning to -TSRA in
IAH`s extended final 6 hours. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019/

DISCUSSION...

- Severe thunderstorm watch to expire at 4AM. Severe threat if any
looks rather small. Line of storms mainly producing 30-40 mph
wind gusts. Main concern the next 3 to 6 hours will be locally
heavy rainfall with showers in the low level jet axis merging
with the line causing an increase in rain rates.

- Tuesday there is the potential for more heavy rainfall due to a
combination of several factors. There could be another solid
inch of rain to occur but likely depend upon convective
evolution on the mesoscale.

SHORT TERM [Today Through Tuesday]...

A ragged line of early morning showers and thunderstorms moving
across the northern forecast area with thin lines of precipitation
feeding into this activity. So far, this activity is behaving
itself. The near term forecast still calls for the southern
advancement of a cold pool-driven broken line of showers and
thunderstorms to pass across the region this morning. Current
timing has a somewhat disorganized QLCS impacting the city just
before sunrise and then reaching the coast in the late morning
hours. Not anticipating severe with this activity although the
strongest storms could put down greater than 30 knot wind gusts
and small hail. After a couple of warm mornings in the lower 80s,
this passing rain will `cool` many north of the city to the middle
70s. A mainly overcast day with slight to low end chances for
spotty return precipitation. The highest chances for shower and
storm coverage will be near the coast and points just offshore, or
where the remnants of this morning`s outflow boundary will hang
up. The afternoon will warm up into the upper 80s to lower 90s
and, with dew points in the middle 70s, this will produce 100 to
105 F afternoon heat indices.

The models want to develop a shortwave trough across central
state later today and then pull this feature across the eastern
Texas early Tuesday. Couple the lift provided by weak PVA with
higher bouts of greater than 1.8 inch pwat air advecting in from
the Gulf and you have some of the ingredients needed to place
moderate to high end rain chances in for Tuesday. An uncapped
Tuesday daytime environment will produce low level 7 to 8 deg C
rates leading to near 4k J/kg CAPE and -11 L.I.s. The GFS as well
as the WRF solutions want to fire convection ahead of the west
central Texas dry line boundary. They push this activity east into
our area during peak heating so, if this scenario stays
consistent through tonight, Tuesday`s POPs will be on the rise. A
backing LLJ and weak upshear Corfidi vectors indicate slow(ing)
storm motions. This increases the potential for higher rainfall
rates making the storm threat mode that of flooding on Tuesday. 31

LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Monday]...

Wednesday into Thursday upper level ridging should become more
pronounced over northern Mexico, southern Rockies and into the
Plains. SE Texas will be on the edge of this ridge so we will need
to carry at least 10 to 20 PoPs as there will still be some
decent moisture over the area. Any showers and storms will be
diurnally driven with low end threats of brief heavy rain,
lightning and gusty winds.

The weekend still looks to feature the development of an inverted
upper level trough or weakness in the ridge over the NW Gulf into
Texas. The problem is that all the models show differing
evolutions and timing for this trough development. For now we will
go with a climo 20 to 30 PoP across the area seeing that the
atmosphere by this time should be more favorable for convection
than not. Towards day 8/9 the GFS shows a surge in tropical
moisture along the lower TX coast so this may be worth watching
for an increase in thunderstorm chances.

Overpeck

MARINE...

The main marine hazards of strong southerly winds and rough seas
will continue this morning. A squall line should push off the
coast later this morning and this should allow for winds to
decrease after it moves through the upper Texas coast. Small craft
advisories will continue until the late morning hours when winds
should decrease. Seas will be slow to decrease but should begin to
happen this afternoon and tonight. Winds should remain around
moderate levels for much of the week and then decrease late in the
week. This will allow for seas to slowly decrease to less than 3
feet by the end of the week.

The other concern will be rip currents for Gulf facing beaches.
We will need to take this hazard day by day as winds should be
decreasing and cause less wave run up. Rip current threat should
be on the decline but we will coordinate with area beach patrols
to determine the risk.

Overpeck

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 91 75 91 73 92 / 50 30 60 40 20
Houston (IAH) 90 78 91 76 93 / 50 30 50 50 10
Galveston (GLS) 88 83 89 81 90 / 100 30 30 20 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 10 AM CDT this morning for the
following zones: Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island and
Bolivar Peninsula...Matagorda Islands.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 10 AM CDT this morning
for the following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...31
Aviation/Marine...31
unome
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Joined: Fri Feb 12, 2010 6:11 pm

surprised to still hear rumbles of thunder, lightning off to our nnw - doesn't look at all apparent on radar

http://map.blitzortung.org/#8.87/30.0863/-95.7936

https://radar.weather.gov/lite/N0R/HGX_loop.gif
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