June 2019: Showers/Storms Increasing To End June

[BlueJay]

Enjoying a nice rain shower now. ( - :

[djmike]

Question. What is causing the significant rain event off the coast in the latest 7 day QPF? Boundary? Tropical system? Just curious.

[Texaspirate11]

Inverted trough

[unome]

rumbling again, I think I may have watered maybe 3 times this year, I like it

https://radar.weather.gov/lite/NCR/HGX_loop.gif

http://map.blitzortung.org/#6.94/29.975/-95.128

[unome]

Question. What is causing the significant rain event off the coast in the latest 7 day QPF? Boundary? Tropical system? Just curious

snippet from https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

Meanwhile, surface high pressure over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico will aid in streaming moisture
northward out of the Western Gulf of Mexico that will become tropical moisture overnight Tuesday
into Wednesday a long with upper-level energy over the Lower Rio Grande Valley will aid in
producing heavy rain over parts of the Western Gulf Coast on Tuesday into Wednesday.

[djmike]

Ah. Gotcha. Thank you!!

[tireman4]

00
FXUS64 KHGX 271020
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
520 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

.DISCUSSION...

...A western county Dense Fog Advisory is in effect through 9 AM...

Summary

- Drier next couple of days with slightly above normal heat. Lower
level humidity will mix out enough during peak heating to
regulate early to mid afternoon heat indices to the upper 90s to
lower 100s.

- Decent weekend weather with higher rain chances on Sunday.
Partly cloudy and weak breezes as high pressure retains control
of this late June regional weather pattern.

- July starts off tropical...wet with the threat for strong
weather both Tuesday and Wednesday. The main hazard threats
will be flooding rain on Tuesday with a downburst wind threat
becoming more dominant Wednesday.

- The 4th of July forecast calls for very `summer-like`
conditions...slight to low end afternoon rain chances with lower
90 F heat and higher max heat indices in the 103 to 106 F range.
Weather is not expected to be a factor during evening
pyrotechnic shows.


.SHORT TERM [Today Through Friday]...

...A western county Dense Fog Advisory is in effect through 9 AM
this morning...

Sabine River Valley surface high pressure with western Texas-
centered upper ridging will control the weather pattern over the
next couple of days. Suppression will reign supreme but there
will still be slight chances for random pop up air mass warmth of
the day showers and storms. Whether this activity be early day
frictional near coastal showers to further interior local breeze-
focused cells, this activity will be isolated in nature. A
weather element that may return over the next couple of mornings
will be fog. As overnight ambient temperatures fall to within a
degree or two of their respective dew points, areawide patchy fog
will begin to form (sans the coast and metro areas). Thicker fog
development may occur north and west of the city over more rural
wind-sheltered open expanse areas or in the vicinity of bodies of
water. Partially cloudy mornings in the mean middle 70s at sunrise
with afternoons warming into the lower to middle 90s. Ridging at
all levels will ensure that these next couple of afternoons will
be the warmest of this 7 day period commencing this morning. Coastal
or second tier county dew points that do not mix out and remain
in the middle 70s will experience the highest maximum heat indices,
ranging between 100 to 105 F during the early to mid afternoon
hours.

.LONG TERM [Friday Night Through Thursday]...

Upper ridging will begin to back off to the west and allow a
weakness channel, or inverted trough, to evolve across the
western Gulf Saturday. A gradual western movement of this trough
will place the region along with its more convergent and
traditionally more wet eastern side by early Sunday. A surge of
higher southern Gulf moisture will travel north parallel to the
trough axis thus increasing regional pwats values from near 1.4
inches on Friday to around 1.8 inches Sunday morning. A much more
tropical air mass overcoming the area to end the month will
increase subsequent day rain chances. Saturday`s slight to low end
shower and storm chances will increase in areal coverage on
Sunday as moisture values lift and convective temperatures lower.
Afternoon`s will not be as oppressively hot, but follow climate
standards with many communities topping out around 90 F by 2 or 3
PM each partially cloudy. Days will become increasingly more
humid in closing out June.

July will begin on a more wet note as Monday through Wednesday`s
weather will become mostly cloudy with frequent rain and
thunderstorm activity. Due to a weaker vertical wind field (per
the region being under the influence of weak ridging), the main
storm mode will be that of slow-moving storm clusters that will
likely produce high enough short duration rainfall rates to
initiate flooding. The highest rainfall will occur on Tuesday and
Wednesday as a plus 2 inch pwat air mass streams inland into a
very unstable air mass. While Tuesday is pegged as the day of
higher areawide rainfall, better thermodynamics on Wednesday
(possibly due to clearer skies) means that Tuesday`s rain event
could transition to a more storm (wind and rain) episode Wednesday.
Soundings evolve from saturated columns Tuesday to inverted-V
profiles on Wednesday.

4th of July weather will be drier although a lingering general
height weakness over the state will drive slight afternoon chances
for those typical summer season isolated or widely scattered
showers and storms. Wouldn`t be too concerned for a 4th wash out
but, if planning any outdoor activities, having a quick nearby
indoor Plan B is wise. While the main afternoon storm threats will
be frequent lightning and brief intense rainfall leading to
street flooding, any activity should wane with loss of heating.
The majority of southeast Texas will enjoy their firework shows
without the threat of inclement weather. 31

&&

.MARINE...
Surface high pressure will continue its slow trek westward through
Friday bringing 10 to 15 mph southeasterly winds. Winds then
decrease and become variable over the weekend as the aforementioned
high sits over southeast Texas. There will be an upper level trough
retrograding westward that may trigger isolated showers and
thunderstorms on Saturday. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible
near any storms that do form. Onshore flow returns for the start of
the work week as high pressure begins to rebuild over the Gulf of
Mexico. 11

&&

.AVIATION...
Wide ranging mix of ceilings and fog across the area this
morning...ranging from LIFR to VFR. In general, less favorable
flying conditions are currently situated northwest of the Highway
59/69 corridor. Look for gradually improving conditions as we head
into the mid-late morning hours as things trend toward VFR. Isolated
to scattered showers and tstms can be expected once again with
daytime heating (convective temps ~87). Probably won`t be as much
coverage as yesterday, and vcsh/vcts placeholders should be
sufficient until if & when amendments might be necessary as trends
are established. No organized convection is anticipated, but will
need to keep an eye on any stronger cells that manage to develop
as fcst soundings indicate an inverted-v signature indicating the
possibility of some stronger winds. 47

&&


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 92 72 92 72 91 / 20 10 10 10 20
Houston (IAH) 93 74 95 74 92 / 20 10 10 10 30
Galveston (GLS) 90 80 91 80 90 / 10 10 10 10 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$


SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...31
MARINE...11
AVIATION...47

[BlueJay]

Very scary thunderstorm going on up here. It remnds me of a hurricane. I hear hail hitting the windows.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 271742
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1242 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA developing across the northern
half of the CWA are expected to persist in and around
KCXO/KUTS/KIAH this afternoon through this evening. Periods of
heavy rainfall, gusty winds and intense lightning can be expected
with this activity. Along the coastal regions, mainly VFR
conditions expected. Based on the latest sounding data and SREF
model, areas of patchy to dense fog is forecast to develop
overnight for most of the local area, less along the coastal
region. This could result in periods of MVFR/IFR cigs/vis from
around 09-15Z. Winds are expected to continue light and variable
for most TAF sites through the end of the forecast period. 24

[tireman4]

Significant Weather Advisory
Weather Updated: Jun 27 2:33PM
Issued by the National Weather Service
For Inland Harris, Texas
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3PM CDT THU ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN AUSTIN...CENTRAL WALLER AND WEST CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM CDT... AT 233 PM CDT, DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PATTISON, OR 8 MILES NORTH OF BROOKSHIRE, MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... KATY, HEMPSTEAD, PRAIRIE VIEW, BROOKSHIRE, WALLER, PINE ISLAND, SAN FELIPE, PATTISON AND MONAVILLE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE. THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY, SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. &&
SEE LIVE RADAR

[BlueJay]

One of my neighbor's twin queen palm trees appears to have been struck by lightning during that mini-hurricane type weather we had this afternoon. The palm is split in two. It was taller than their 2 story house. Insurance man has already been out and the chain saw is at work now. We did not receive a warning about this fluke severe weather activity.

This cooler rainy pattern reminds me of early fall.

[sau27]

One of my neighbor's twin queen palm trees appears to have been struck by lightning during that mini-hurricane type weather we had this afternoon. The palm is split in two. It was taller than their 2 story house. Insurance man has already been out and the chain saw is at work now. We did not receive a warning about this fluke severe weather activity.

This cooler rainy pattern reminds me of early fall.

I wouldn't call it "severe". Tropical afternoon thunderstorms can often have a healthy amount of lightning.

[Texaspirate11]

One of my neighbor's twin queen palm trees appears to have been struck by lightning during that mini-hurricane type weather we had this afternoon. The palm is split in two. It was taller than their 2 story house. Insurance man has already been out and the chain saw is at work now. We did not receive a warning about this fluke severe weather activity.

This cooler rainy pattern reminds me of early fall.

Your area was under a special weather advisory - intense lightening/hail/gusty winds - yikes - seems like it really played out

[srainhoutx]

It looks like we may get a bit of a reprieve from scattered thunderstorms today, but our weekend rain chances increase as an upper air disturbance currently near Little Rock meanders SSW and an inverted trough draped across the Northern and Central Gulf transitions West into our Region tomorrow afternoon/evening. Sunday could be the wettest day of the weekend. On to July!

[Cpv17]

I’m just wondering if anyone else has noticed this (I’m sure y’all have), but to me it seems like models have an east biased with precipitation which causes them to put too much qpf to points east of SETX and not enough over us.

[tireman4]

FXUS64 KHGX 280935
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
435 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019

.SHORT TERM [Today Through Sunday Night]...
Stratus & patchy fog starting to fill in across parts of the area
early this morning. Expect this to lift during the mid morning
hours. Weak surface high pres is expected to be over the area
today, but besides lower PW values, no substantial atmos differences
are noted from yesterday. Think we`ll probably see some sct
shra/tstms develop with daytime heating and seabreeze. (May be
worth keeping an eye out for outflows drifting in from east Tx
storms late in the day as well). Overall coverage should diminish
in the mid evening hours as we lose heating.

Inverted trof stretching across the cntl Gulf states should make
its way westward over the weekend...with the axis generally
across the upper Tx coast by late Saturday then eventually toward
cntl Tx and the the Big Bend area as we head into Sunday night.
Sct precip can be expected as this feature approaches & passes,
though individual models aren`t in the best agreement in regards
to timing/location. More favorable periods should be during the
day when instability is generally higher, but can`t really exclude
any time period. 47

.LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday]...
Trough/weakness continues to retrograde and lingers across west
Tx for a good part of the week. Locally, onshore flow becomes
better established and a surge of deep Gulf moisture makes its way
inland late Monday night and Tuesday bringing with it fairly good
chances of rain into midweek. Deterministic models show gradually
decreasing moisture levels and precip coverage Thursday (July 4th)
into the following weekend. 47

&&

.AVIATION [06Z TAF Issuance]...
We`ll be starting the day with a mix of lower CIGS/VIS across SE TX
this morning. High clouds moving in from the north have been making
it hard for fog development across our northern counties so far but
CIGS have fallen. Closer to the coast, patchy fog is still expected
through mid morning or so. Cannot rule out the possibility of wide-
ly scattered/isolated activity later this afternoon, so will likely
keep with the mention of VCSH/VCTS. Will be looking for mostly MVFR
conditions once again tonight/early Sat morning. 41

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure moving over the region will bring mainly quiet
weather with light onshore flow expected today. A retrograding
upper level trough combined with daytime heating may bring
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms during the
afternoon and evening hours through the weekend. Coverage may
increase towards the end of the weekend and into the start of the
work week. Onshore flow increases next week and may approached
SCEC criteria by midweek as the area gets sandwiched between high
pressure to the east over the Gulf of Mexico and a surface low
located to the west. Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 92 73 88 71 87 / 20 20 30 30 30
Houston (IAH) 93 72 88 71 90 / 40 30 30 30 40
Galveston (GLS) 91 80 88 79 88 / 20 30 20 30 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 281538
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1038 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Areas of patchy to dense fog started to dissipate after sunrise
with ceilings gradually lifting. Thus, the Dense Fog Advisory
was allowed to expire at 9 AM CDT this morning. Little to no fog
was reported on the surface observations as of 10 AM CDT.

Based on the current sounding data analysis, environmental
conditions appear favorable for the development of showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon, particularly over the central and
southern regions of the forecast area. Increased the POPs/WX for
these areas throughout the afternoon hours. The rest of the
forecast has been updated to account for the current observation
trend but no major changes were made to the previous forecast.

24

[Rip76]

There’s a few starting to fire up now.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 281743
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1243 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions currently at all TAF sites. Winds will continue
light and variable. Environmental conditions are favorable for
SHRA/TSRA development this afternoon, particularly along the
central and southern portions of the CWA. VCTS is in place for
KIAH, KHOU, KSGR, and KCXO through this evening. Some of this
activity could produce, gusty winds, frequent lightning and heavy
rainfall. Tranquil weather conditions expected tonight with the
chance of patchy to dense fog developing overnight into early
morning hours, particularly west of I-45. This may result in
periods of MVFR/IFR vis/cigs from around 10-14Z. Most of the fog,
if not all, should dissipate shortly after sunrise. VFR conditions
with light and variable winds expected Saturday morning. 24

&&

[tireman4]

NWS Houston Update