June 2019: Showers/Storms Increasing To End June

[DoctorMu]

Dewpoint of 79°F. Highest I can remember in College Station.

Heat Index topped 110°F. The Big Suck. Not quite 1995 Chicago nasty. Hope everyone can find somewhere cool tonight, particularly those in need or without A/C at home.

[Katdaddy]

Another hot and humid SE TX day.

[tireman4]

XUS64 KHGX 211135
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
635 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

.AVIATION...
Periods of MVFR decks this morning will lift out by late morning
to mainly various high overcast this afternoon. Moderate
southerly winds with frequent daytime gusts to or slightly over
20 knots. A return to prevailing MVFR ceilings past midnight
Saturday morning. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019/

DISCUSSION...

- Heat Advisory Today - Heat index values ranging 105 to 110
across the area with most areas near or above 108 for a couple
hours this afternoon.

- We are not anticipating a heat advisory for Saturday but one may
be needed. High temperatures should be a degree or two lower but not
much difference from today`s or Thursday`s conditions.

- Sunday Through Tuesday - best chances of showers and
thunderstorms. Surge of moisture from the Gulf along with a
short wave trough passing through the Plains will provide the
opportunity for a couple rounds of storms.

SHORT TERM [Today Through Saturday]...

The first day of astronomical summer will remain hot and humid with
maximum afternoon heat indices in the 106 to 109 F range. Thus, a
Heat Advisory will be in effect once again today. Upper ridging
centered over the eastern Gulf will subtly expand westward into the
region through the day. This will produce partially cloudy, onshore
breezy and muggy conditions that will be very similar to yesterday`s
conditions. Saturday morning`s minimum temperatures will only fall
to around 80 F, once again threatening (near coastal) high minimum
temperature records. A stout onshore wind and near 80 F dew points
will likely allow GLS to tie or break another record high minimum
temperature today.

A developing Great Basin upper trough on Saturday will lower western
Texas surface pressures and maintain the tight onshore pressure
gradient, and ultimately, moderate onshore flow. The first full day
of the summer season will again be very hot and humid. A slightly
drier air mass advecting in off the Gulf may allow for a slight
down tick in afternoon dew points. This may regulate maximum heat
indices to just under Heat Advisory criteria, between 104 and 107F.
A strengthened low level jet, along with the passage of some very
weak disturbances, could spark off isolated heat-of-the-day
inland showers and thunderstorms. 31

LONG TERM [Sunday Through Friday]...

After a hot start to the weekend, temperatures should be somewhat
lower Sunday and more so to start the work week. This is mainly
due to an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity for the
area along with more cloud cover. By Sunday, the upper level ridge
should move back over the central Gulf. A strong trough should
move out of the central Rockies into the Plains. Stronger large
scale lift should remain well north of the area, but there will be
a decent 30kt LLJ to develop off the Gulf. This will allow for
precipitable water values to increase over 2 inches. This amount
of moisture is still below the 90th percentile of climo for this
time of year, but still high enough to take notice with above
normal integrated moisture transport. Forecast goes with rain
chances closer to 50 percent for areas along and east of I-45
including Houston. The ECMWF/CMC are quite aggressive with
rainfall amounts while GFS/NAM are tempered. Given the heating
and increase in moisture, there should be favorable conditions for
scattered activity. It is too soon to really gage heavy rainfall
potential or potential rain rates, but suspect there could be an
isolated storm that could drop an inch of rain in an hour or less.

Sunday night into Monday conditions get more favorable for storms
as high moisture remains over the region. Synoptic models have a
pretty good signal for a line of storms forming in central or
north Texas that moves into the forecast area through the morning
hours on Monday. Overall pattern with passing trough axis and
built up instability suggests a linear convective system moving
into the region. We will need to monitor for damaging wind gusts
at this point with the potential for a line of severe convection.
SPC has marginal risk on day 3 outlook for its Sunday night time
frame (outlook ends at 7AM Monday) which would be when this line
of storms moves into the area. Despite being overnight, there will
still be 2000-3000 J/kg of CAPE and deep layer shear will be
strong enough to support linear convection but decreases from
north to south. Corfidi vectors support a slow storm motion from
north Texas into SE Texas through the overnight. This storm motion
will also be normal to the low level shear so perhaps may need to
watch for QLCS to develop with a mesovortex.

Storms should be decaying late Monday morning as the linear system
moves south so we will keep some higher thunderstorm chances
going for the rest of the day Monday. Most of this activity will
now be mesoscale driven with outflow boundary interactions. The
problem will be a continued 30 knot LLJ that will maintain high
moisture across the area for storms to use. Precipitable water
values will still be around 2 inches. Eventually this activity
gusts out and decays by Tuesday ending thunderstorm chances.

Upper level ridging does develop over the area but more so
centered over the southern Rockies into west Texas. We should have
hot conditions again Wednesday and Thursday with no rain chances
but the pattern is now allowing an inverted trough to move into
the area from the east. GFS and ECMWF are showing a similar
pattern with this trough developing for the end of next week and
could bring rain chances back into the forecast. Overpeck

MARINE...

Strong southerly winds are expected to continue through the
weekend. This means small craft exercise caution and advisories
will be needed through the weekend. For now SCEC are in effect for
the bays and near shore waters through Saturday. Advisory goes
into effect for the offshore waters tonight through Saturday.
These conditions may persist into Sunday and Monday but then
decrease into Tuesday. Like yesterday, rip currents may also be a
problem with the strong winds for Gulf facing beaches through the
weekend.

31/Overpeck

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 94 79 94 78 93 / 10 10 20 10 40
Houston (IAH) 95 80 94 80 92 / 10 10 30 10 50
Galveston (GLS) 92 83 91 83 89 / 10 10 20 10 40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following
zones: Austin...Brazoria Islands...Brazos...Burleson...
Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal
Harris...Coastal Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...
Fort Bend...Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula...
Grimes...Houston...Inland Brazoria...Inland Galveston...
Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland Matagorda...
Madison...Matagorda Islands...Montgomery...Northern
Liberty...Polk...San Jacinto...Southern Liberty...Trinity...
Walker...Waller...Washington...Wharton.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through Saturday evening for
the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...
Matagorda Bay.

Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for the
following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through late tonight for the
following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

[srainhoutx]

Happy Summer Solstice! The bad news is we have another day of Heat Advisories. The good news is the days start getting a few seconds shorter and rain chances enter the forecast Sunday through next Tuesday. A deep Western trough with its cold air aloft as well as some deeper Gulf moisture combine with embedded upper air disturbances allowing for Convective complexes to develop and approach our area Sunday afternoon, increasing in areal coverage on Monday. Clouds and rain lower our temperatures to near normal.

Next Wednesday and Thursday look hot again, but only briefly. The Global ECMWF and GFS computer models indicate and inverted trough moves into our area from the East as we end June and begin July. Rain chances look to increase with almost daily chances of rain the last weekend of June. It's time for a July Topic as well, Independence Day will be here before we know it and folks are wondering if weather worries may impact their 4th of July Celebration plans!

[BlueJay]

Hello Summer 2019!

[Cpv17]

Pure fantasy land, but interesting to look at.

[Ptarmigan]

Pure fantasy land, but interesting to look at.

That looks like a tropical system making landfall.

[srainhoutx]

Pure fantasy land, but interesting to look at.

That looks like a tropical system making landfall.

Actually, the GFS suggests a stationary inverted trough established across our Region for a little over a week. That said there is some very deep tropical moisture depicted surging into Texas as well as some moisture from the Eastern Pacific associated with a couple of tropical systems organizing and moving generally WNW. There are indications of a vigorous Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave spreading across the Eastern Pacific as June ends and possibly entering the Western Atlantic Basin as July begins. We will watch these features carefully in the week ahead.

[Ptarmigan]

Pure fantasy land, but interesting to look at.

That looks like a tropical system making landfall.

Actually, the GFS suggests a stationary inverted trough established across our Region for a little over a week. That said there is some very deep tropical moisture depicted surging into Texas as well as some moisture from the Eastern Pacific associated with a couple of tropical systems organizing and moving generally WNW. There are indications of a vigorous Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave spreading across the Eastern Pacific as June ends and possibly entering the Western Atlantic Basin as July begins. We will watch these features carefully in the week ahead.

That should be interesting. The forecast model is 16 days ahead, so anything can happen.

[jasons2k]

Yesterday we drove to Crestview, Fl for the first leg of our trip. It was a hazy brown the entire trip. Not sure if it’s African dust or Mexican smoke (it’s a brown haze so I’m thinking dust) but whatever it is, it is thick and widespread all along the I-10 corridor. I hope it rains back at home.

[Cpv17]

Euro is looking pretty good for rain. GFS not so much.

[jasons2k]

Along I-10 north of Panama City - it looks like a bomb went off with all the downed trees

[srainhoutx]

Tricky forecast ahead for the next 24 to 36 hours. Currently there is a vigorous cold upper trough to our NW that has been bringing snow above 9000 feet in the Southern Rockies. To the East, humid and warm unstable air as allowed thunderstorms to develop and that should continue today across the Southern Plains. A squall line and associated Mesoscale Convective System look to organize this afternoon/evening NW of Dallas/Ft Work and begin to march South and East overnight. The models do want to weaken the line of storms as they near our area early in the morning. Not completely sold on the idea the models are painting right now as there are some uncertainties such as a possible strong cold pool aloft and unforeseen mesoscale features that could be present later this evening. The SPC currently has our Northern areas bordering on a Slight Risk of Severe Storms with a Marginal Risk outlined all the way to the Coast for our SE Texas Region. The WPC has a large Marginal Risk for Excess Rainfall outlined for tomorrow. Watch the storms later this afternoon developing around the Metroplex. We will see if they can spread SE in to our Region overnight.

[Cromagnum]

Already ready for fall if this is what summer has to offer. Not looking forward to July and August.

[DoctorMu]

A very brief shower here. Most of the streamer showers are just missing us. Dewpoint still around 77°F. Range from 76°F to 79°F yesterday.

Severe storms up near Wichita Falls, but we're pretty done with severe season. The Big Suck Continues.

*Allegedly* a few degrees cooler and slightly lower DP early in the week.

Jason - Yeah, Matthew just bombed out to that CAT 5 approaching the panhandle shore. All those pine trees flattened or the top halves sheared off.

[jasons2k]

A very brief shower here. Most of the streamer showers are just missing us. Dewpoint still around 77°F. Rants from 76°F to 79‡F yesterday.

Sever storms up near wichita Falls, but were pretty done with severe season. The Big Suck Continues.

*Allegedly* a few degrees cooler and slightly lower DP early in the week.

Jason - Yeah, Matthew just bombed out to that CAT 5 approaching the panhandle shore. All those pine trees flattened or the top halves sheared off.

It was pretty incredible to see that, that far inland. For a couple of miles, every thing was leveled. Everything. Just grass and weeds. It looked like parts of the Lost Pines after the fires of 2011. Eerie.

[DoctorMu]

At 1:20 pm The Big Suck registered the highest dewpoint I've seen in College Station: 81°F

At least there was a breeze this afternoon with passing streamer cells. Severe action near DFW after harassing Wichita Falls this afternoon. Outflows heading in our general direction - may arrive about dawn.

[DoctorMu]

A very brief shower here. Most of the streamer showers are just missing us. Dewpoint still around 77°F. Rants from 76°F to 79‡F yesterday.

Sever storms up near wichita Falls, but were pretty done with severe season. The Big Suck Continues.

*Allegedly* a few degrees cooler and slightly lower DP early in the week.

Jason - Yeah, Matthew just bombed out to that CAT 5 approaching the panhandle shore. All those pine trees flattened or the top halves sheared off.

It was pretty incredible to see that, that far inland. For a couple of miles, every thing was leveled. Everything. Just grass and weeds. It looked like parts of the Lost Pines after the fires of 2011. Eerie.

That was a horrible fire and summer. I thought Bastrop was going to go up in flames.

Wow. God's eraser. I had heard about severe damage 30 miles inland the evening after Matthew's landfall, because of wet ground and sustained hurricane force winds.

I've seen some lines wooded areas like this flattened near the coast of NC after a hurricane over a decade ago.

[DoctorMu]

Already ready for fall if this is what summer has to offer. Not looking forward to July and August.

haha Countdown to SEC football season!

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Already ready for fall if this is what summer has to offer. Not looking forward to July and August.

haha Countdown to SEC football season!

Amen