June 2019: Showers/Storms Increasing To End June

[DoctorMu]

Drier air on the way. DP = 60°F here in CLL. Another NW flow shot is coming in.

Zonal flow begins Monday, so enjoy these conditions during a SE/central Texas June while they last!


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
314 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019

.SHORT TERM [Rest of Today Through Thursday Afternoon]...
Clear to partly cloudy skies with a northerly wind flow was
observed during the late morning and early afternoon hours as
drier air filtered across the SE TX. A few showers developed late
this morning across the coastal regions of Brazoria and Galveston
counties, slowly moving southward into the nearshore waters early
this afternoon. A few showers are currently affecting the coastal
areas of Brazoria County but are expected to dissipate during the
next two hours or so. For tonight, calm to light northerly winds
are expected with mostly clear skies. Low temperatures will range
between the upper 60s to lower 70s north of I10 and between the
lower to mid 70s south of I10.

Thursday, a drier air mass will remain over the region as a surface
high pressure builds across North and Central Texas, limiting shower
activity across the forecast area. North winds are expected to
gradually shift northeast throughout the day. High temperatures
should range between upper 80s to lower 90s. 24

&&

.LONG TERM...
Shortwave ridging will build over sern TX late in the week into
the weekend before a more zonal flow regime becomes established by
early next week. This will bring seasonably warm temps the next
several days, with increasing chances of rain each afternoon
beginning Saturday as onshore flow increases. Models have been
fairly consistent in bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms
back into the forecast Saturday (mostly in the afternoon) with
unsettled weather continuing along active seabreeze each afternoon
into the middle part of next week. Will keep chance wording going
each afternoon, with no or slight chance wording during the night
time periods. Temperatures will be more of the same with highs
topping out mostly in the lower 90s with lows in the mid to upper
70s.

Evans

&&

.MARINE...
Variable winds at less than 10 knots are expected during the rest
of the day. Winds are expected to become north to northeast
overnight and become northeast to east on Thursday. Onshore flow
is forecast to return Thursday night and continue through the end
of the forecast period. Seas generally between 1 and 3 feet are
expected to prevail across the coastal Gulf waters through Friday
night. Over the weekend, winds are expected to increase resulting
in wind driven seas of up to 5 feet across the offshore waters and
portions of the nearshore waters. Caution flags and/or small
craft advisories are probable for the bays and Gulf waters this
weekend and could possibly continue through early next week. 24

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 67 88 66 94 74 / 0 0 0 0 10
Houston (IAH) 71 91 69 93 75 / 0 0 0 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 78 88 79 88 81 / 0 0 0 0 10

[Cpv17]

64 degree dew point here in Wharton now. Still hot as heck out there though .

[jasons2k]

Rain chances have been lowered for early next week but spread out. Not sure if that’s a question of “if” or just timing, but I need some rain in my area.

[tireman4]

00
FXUS64 KHGX 131120
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
620 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2019

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
VFR (mainly FEW/SCT cirrus) with light N to NE winds increasing to
5 to 8 knots this afternoon. Could see a weak sea breeze and
associated SE wind shift gradually work its way inland late in the
afternoon. Winds will be SE and light tonight, SE and strengthening
to around 10 knots 15Z-18Z tomorrow. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 352 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2019/...

.SHORT TERM [Today Through Friday Afternoon]...
Skies are mostly clear early this morning. Temperatures at 3 AM
ranged from the upper 60s to lower 70s well inland to the mid to
upper 70s at the coast. There are a couple observations showing
some fog (mainly south of Interstate 10 so far), but at this time
do not think it will become widespread before everything dissipates
after sunrise. The airmass in place will remain on the dry side for
almost all of the area today as northeast to east winds continue on
the light side. Some models are indicating possible rain development
off the coast and generally between the Galveston Bay and Matagorda
Bay areas later this morning through this afternoon. For now, only
showing 10% PoPs and will raise if needed. Weather stays quiet
tonight through Friday as high pressure moves off to the east and
winds come back around to the southeast and south and begin to
strengthen. A gradual warming trend and rising humidities can be
expected to begin in response to this flow. 42

.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Thursday]...
Semi-zonal flow should continue through much of the weekend and
into next week. An upper level trough will slide east across NM
and into N TX Saturday morning, with some weak impulses
propagating along the leading edge of the trough axis, but mainly
staying north of SE TX. All in all, a typical summer-like regime
looks to hold tight through much of the extended portion of the
forecast. Global guidance remains in good agreement for the chance
of showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon, with scattered
convection mostly expected to develop along a sea breeze boundary.
Forecast soundings show precipitable water values (PWs) rising to
between 1.5 to 1.7 inches, with convective temperatures in the
upper 80s to low 90s in throughout the afternoon hours.
Thunderstorms will be working against a cap between the 850 mb to
700 mb layer, but looks breakable with high temperatures warming
into the low to mid 90s across much of the area. Any precipitation
that does develop should wane with the loss of daytime heating.
Sunday`s forecast looks similar to Saturday, but a stronger mid-
level cap looks possible in both the NAM12 and GFS forecast
soundings, which could limit coverage of showers and
thunderstorms. Another upper level disturbance looks to slide east
across OK late Sunday into early Monday. Better moisture will
pool across SE TX Monday and Tuesday as onshore flow increases due
to a tightening pressure gradient, and coverage of showers and
thunderstorms appears to be more wide spread, as PWs increase to
between 1.6 to 1.9 inches. Therefore, warmer maximum apparent
temperatures or "feels like" temperatures look possible Monday and
Tuesday, rising once again into the low 100s across SE TX.

Hathaway

.MARINE...
Variable winds under 10 knots will become northeast to east today
as surface high pressure begins moving off to the east. Still have
an onshore flow returning to the area tonight and Friday (as the
high continues moving eastward) and then strengthening over the
weekend as pressures fall off to our northwest. The increase in
winds and/or building seas will eventually reach caution or
advisory levels. Little change is anticipated for much of next
week. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 88 67 92 74 94 / 0 0 0 0 10
Houston (IAH) 91 70 91 76 93 / 0 0 0 0 30
Galveston (GLS) 88 80 88 81 88 / 10 0 0 10 40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

[DoctorMu]

The Big Suck begins this weekend.

[Katdaddy]

Some high clouds this morning followed by partly to mostly sunny skies. It will be a hot day across SE TX with temps in the mid 80s to low 90s. Expect some scattered showers and a few thunderstorms for the weekend.

[DoctorMu]

GFS and Ensemble have most of the rain just north of the forecast area.

Canadian brings a more potent dose or precipitation around a Brenham to Conroe line.

[Cpv17]

Looks like a pretty potent heat wave coming up with hardly any rain to speak of for the remainder of the month.

[jasons2k]

Decent rain chances the next few days - up to 60% for Monday.

[srainhoutx]

Changes are definitely brewing as we head into mid next week. The return of a onshore flow commenced yesterday and scattered showers are evident on radar this morning over the Gulf waters heading generally inland. Will be watching tomorrow afternoon/evening for a cluster of storms to our N possibly dropping into our Northern areas.

Heat of the day seabreeze storms are also possible and likely increasing into early next week.

[Rip76]

Looks like we’ve got some sea breeze action popping up this morning.

[Cpv17]

Decent rain chances the next few days - up to 60% for Monday.

Not looking good at all.

[srainhoutx]

The afternoon Updated Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Outlook places all of SE Texas in a Marginal Risk for severe storms for Father's Day.

[Katdaddy]

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
254 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

TXZ199-213-152045-
Inland Harris TX-Montgomery TX-
254 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY AND NORTH
CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

At 253 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Greater Inwood, or near Jersey Village, moving north at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Conroe, Humble, Jersey Village, Aldine, The Woodlands, Greater
Greenspoint, Spring, northwestern Northside / Northline, Spring
Branch North, Kingwood, northwestern Greater Heights, Oak Ridge
North, Panorama Village, Shenandoah, Patton Village, Roman Forest,
Woodbranch, Cut And Shoot, Woodloch and Bush Intercontinental
Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

[jasons2k]

It poured really hard here, but it was brief. Only 0.09”

Rain chances upped to 70% tomorrow!!

[srainhoutx]

Could be an active weather day ahead, so keep a keen eye one storms, possibly severe developing this afternoon into the overnight hours. The Storm Predication Center has Updated their Day 1 Convective Outlook to now include much of our Region in Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threat.

[srainhoutx]

The Weather Prediction Center issues a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall. The short tem mesoscale models and the GFS are suggesting a generally 1 to 2 inches with some isolated totals nearing 4 to 5 inches the next 24 to 36 hours.

[srainhoutx]

The Storm Prediction Center expands the Enhanced Risk for severe storms into Austin and New Braunfels. Slight Risk continues for a large portion of SE Texas.

[DoctorMu]

Potent line of storms around Madisonville and scattered popcorn feeder showers around Houston.

Largely a bust so far here. Juicy air, heavy clouds...but no rain.

PW's east of here and towards Houston 1.8+. We'll see.

[mckinne63]

Just had a quick shower here in Stafford. Just enough to make it hot and steamy outside.