June 2019: Showers/Storms Increasing To End June

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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Texaspirate11
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Bring it down to the bay
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Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
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Texaspirate11
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Bring it down to Galveston bay
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Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
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Rip76
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Poof.

Look out Austin.
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DoctorMu
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Message: NOAA-NWS-ALERTS-TX125CFE233A80.SevereThunderstormWarning.125CFE235C7CTX.EWXSVREWX.76635793240b0de60e2e6877865fefcb from w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Sent: 20:28 CDT on 06-09-2019
Effective: 20:28 CDT on 06-09-2019
Expires: 21:15 CDT on 06-09-2019
Event: Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Alert:
The National Weather Service in Austin San Antonio has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Caldwell County in south central Texas...
Southeastern Hays County in south central Texas...
North central Guadalupe County in south central Texas...
Southwestern Bastrop County in south central Texas...
Northeastern Gonzales County in south central Texas...
Southwestern Fayette County in south central Texas...
East central Comal County in south central Texas...

* Until 915 PM CDT.

* At 828 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 7 miles southwest of Rosanky to near Canyon Lake,
moving south at 20 mph.
HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
New Braunfels, San Marcos, Kyle, Lockhart, Canyon Lake Dam, Canyon
Lake, Martindale, Waelder, Uhland, Mustang Ridge, Niederwald,
Staples, Smithson Valley, Cistern, Rosanky, Zorn, Fentress, Delhi,
Joliet and Startzville.
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
Instructions: Prepare immediately for large hail and damaging winds. People outside should move immediately to shelter inside a strong building. Stay away from windows.
Target Area:
Bastrop
Caldwell
Comal
Fayette
Gonzales
Guadalupe
Hays
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 101146 AAA
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
646 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2019

.AVIATION...
North to northeasterly flow will prevail behind the weak frontal
boundary which pushed offshore earlier this morning. VFR
conditions anticipated through the TAF period with mostly middle
and high clouds overhead. Most convection today should remain
south and west of the terminals. Still cannot rule out a pop up
storm over LBX during the afternoon hours, though not confident
enough at this time to mention in the LBX TAF. Northeasterly winds
will increase to 10 to 15 knots by the late morning hours and
should continue through early this evening.

Hathaway

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2019/

SHORT TERM...
Radar imagery shows showers and very isolated thunderstorms
continuing to fire up along multiple residual boundaries from
yesterday, mainly over the nearshore waters, Jackson, Galveston, and
Brazoria counties. None of the short term guidance has initialized
well, nor picked up on these features, so mostly adjusted PoPs to
chase these trends based on radar in the very near term. The wind
shift associated with this weak front has reached the coast in the
past hour, also acting as an axis of directional convergence, and
assisting with the development of these showers. The best chances
for showers and thunderstorms today will be south of I-10 and west
of Highway 288 and over the western Gulf waters. Partly cloudy skies
will hold over a majority of the forecast area, before becoming
mostly clear east of I-45 by Tuesday morning. As a result, high
temperatures will be much cooler today in comparison to the last few
days, with forecasted high temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s
area wide. A slightly drier air mass will surge into SE TX by
Tuesday morning, as dew points lower into the upper 50s to upper 60s
through most of the day Tuesday. The chance for showers and isolated
thunderstorms will linger Tuesday over the southwestern zones where
the best moisture remains, as another weak upper level disturbance
slides across the region. High temperatures will also be slightly
cooler Tuesday in the upper 80s.

Hathaway

LONG TERM...
On Tuesday night, the base of a long wave trough will reside
along the Texas coast. Think that SE TX will either be on the west
side of the trough axis or will soon be on the west side of the
axis. Could be some showers in the evening but with subsidence
kicking in on the back side of the trough and drier air filtering
into the region from the NE, think rain chances will be low and
short lived. On Wednesday, the upper trough will be east of the
area and upper level ridging over the desert SW will be expanding
east. The ridge flattens out a bit and 500 mb heights never
really increase very much through Saturday. The dry air in place
should allow for cooler overnight low temperatures but dry air
heats up efficiently so there should be a rather large diurnal
range in temperatures. 850 mb temps gradually warm Wed-Fri so
would expect day time high temperatures to gradually warm from
near 90 into the lower/middle 90`s by the weekend. A series of
weak short waves will move across the southern plains over the
weekend and could bring the region a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. 43

MARINE...
Northeasterly winds between 10 to 15 knots will prevail through this
afternoon before becoming rather light and variable at times.
Temporary SCEC conditions look possible late this morning and into
the early afternoon hours, but did not issue a SCEC given conditions
should be rather short lived. Northeasterly winds increase once more
by Tuesday morning when SCEC conditions look longer lived and a SCEC
will likely need to be issued. Seas will also respond, rising to
between 3 to 5 feet by Tuesday afternoon. Winds quickly slacken and
seas lower by early Wednesday morning. The pressure gradient
tightens again late in the week and SCA will likely be warranted.
Otherwise, tide levels are forecast to run near normal through the
next few days.

Hathaway

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 87 68 85 65 88 / 20 0 10 10 10
Houston (IAH) 92 72 89 68 91 / 10 0 10 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 90 77 87 77 88 / 10 10 10 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...43
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srainhoutx
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Reminder to those that follow the computer model schemes. Major upgrades occur tomorrow for the ECMWF EPS and on Wednesday, the new FV3 version of the GFS becomes operational replacing the old GFS.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
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Twitter @WeatherInfinity
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 101612
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1112 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2019

.MARINE...
Frontal boundary over the far coastal waters drifting southward
should bring an end to the rain chances there through mid
afternoon. Could see some isolated storms develop near Matagorda
Bay area and the far southwestern waters. Have added a SCEC
tonight after midnight as winds increase to near 20 knots and seas
build to 4 to 5 feet. Showers and thunderstorms looking a little
more likely over the 20-60nm waters overnight near/north of the
boundary. Winds should relax by Tuesday afternoon.


45

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
High pressure building into the region bringing an increase in
winds to the northwest and drier air to the region. High clouds
should be gradually thinning today. Will be keeping a small area
of 20 POPs around the Matagorda Bay region for late afternoon
development but this is also an 80% chance it doesn`t. Dry air may
have pushed far enough south through the region that it will be
too dry for precip there. All in all a much more pleasant June day
on tap.

45
&&
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DoctorMu
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High in the 80s, dew point in the 60s. A little breezy. A summer day in the NC piedmont. Heaven here for this time of year. A couple of more days of this until reality hits.
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Katdaddy
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Nice cool June morning with temps in 70s. Some additional scattered showers today mainly SW of the Houston-Galveston areas.
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jasons2k
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Nice, but boring.
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