June 2019: Showers/Storms Increasing To End June

[redneckweather]

More showers and storms forming from College Station and back northwest of Austin moving south eastward. The forecast looks quiet today but full sun out now in my neck of the woods in Montgomery County.

[Cromagnum]

At least two trees blown down at work.

[DoctorMu]

Message: NOAA-NWS-ALERTS-TX125CFEFB2CEC.SpecialWeatherStatement.125CFEFB4BC8TX.HGXSPSHGX.70cd504c1f098feea484fc838381f216 from w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Sent: 11:51 CDT on 06-24-2019
Effective: 01:51 CDT on 06-25-2019
Expires: 12:30 CDT on 06-24-2019
Event: Special Weather Statement
Alert:
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BURLESON AND WEST CENTRAL BRAZOS
COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 PM CDT...

At 1149 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles northwest of Caldwell, moving east at 25 mph.
Pea size hail and winds in excess of 35 mph will be possible with
this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Western Bryan, Caldwell, Snook, Wixon Valley, Lyons, Deanville and
Chriesman.
Instructions:
Target Area:
Brazos
Burleson

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 241734
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1234 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

.DISCUSSION...

18Z Aviation...Still seeing light to moderate RA at GLS which
should shift offshore in an hour or two. An upper level
disturbance is producing scattered TSRA around CLL, expect this
area of convection to remain NW of other SE TX TAF sites this
afternoon. There will be a chance of more showers beginning around
midnight near the coast and expanding inland through the morning.
Not very confident on the timing and location of TSRA tomorrow,
so have opted to keep VCSH in the forecast for now. LW

&&

[Rip76]

No chance of a GOM spin up from this is there?

[Cromagnum]

No chance of a GOM spin up from this is there?

I get that a low blowing into the Gulf could technically develop, but how often does that actually happen? Any front strong enough to clear the coast usually keeps on trucking or fizzles out

[Belmer]

No chance of a GOM spin up from this is there?

I get that a low blowing into the Gulf could technically develop, but how often does that actually happen? Any front strong enough to clear the coast usually keeps on trucking or fizzles out

Actually not as rare as you think. This isn't necessarily a "cold front" that pushed through so-to-speak. But it mirrors one in a sense with a QLCS pushing through this morning and out into the Gulf. Typically when you have a boundary or a trough like that in place and the convection stays persistent - you can get a slow (or sometimes fast) organized low to develop if the conditions are just right. Two examples that come to mind are Humberto and Emily.
Humberto developed just south of Texas, (about 100 miles south of Galveston) in 2007 in early September after a front pushed through and stalled off the coast. Went from Tropical Depression to a Category 1 Hurricane in less than 24-hours before making landfall just east of Galveston.
Emily was very rare in that a front actually pushed off the southeast U.S. coast into the Gulf the last week of July in 2017 and quickly intensified into a Tropical Storm before making landfall near Tampa and then moving into the Atlantic.
I know there have been other examples of tropical systems forming off of old boundaries, but don't know all of them off the top of my head. They happen off the east U.S. coast in the Atlantic Basin as well.

While I've learned to never say never when it comes to Mother Nature, in this case, it would be highly unlikely for this storm to get organized in the Gulf. Shear is high and looks to remain high for at least the next 7 days, if not beyond (days 8-12 are a little iffy based on what model you look at). So no worries in the short term.

[Cromagnum]

Looks like storms to our NW are burning out. Atmosphere probably too worked over.

[Cromagnum]

Looks like storms to our NW are burning out. Atmosphere probably too worked over.

Hmm, maybe I spoke too soon.

[Ptarmigan]

No chance of a GOM spin up from this is there?

I get that a low blowing into the Gulf could technically develop, but how often does that actually happen? Any front strong enough to clear the coast usually keeps on trucking or fizzles out

Actually not as rare as you think. This isn't necessarily a "cold front" that pushed through so-to-speak. But it mirrors one in a sense with a QLCS pushing through this morning and out into the Gulf. Typically when you have a boundary or a trough like that in place and the convection stays persistent - you can get a slow (or sometimes fast) organized low to develop if the conditions are just right. Two examples that come to mind are Humberto and Emily.
Humberto developed just south of Texas, (about 100 miles south of Galveston) in 2007 in early September after a front pushed through and stalled off the coast. Went from Tropical Depression to a Category 1 Hurricane in less than 24-hours before making landfall just east of Galveston.
Emily was very rare in that a front actually pushed off the southeast U.S. coast into the Gulf the last week of July in 2017 and quickly intensified into a Tropical Storm before making landfall near Tampa and then moving into the Atlantic.
I know there have been other examples of tropical systems forming off of old boundaries, but don't know all of them off the top of my head. They happen off the east U.S. coast in the Atlantic Basin as well.

While I've learned to never say never when it comes to Mother Nature, in this case, it would be highly unlikely for this storm to get organized in the Gulf. Shear is high and looks to remain high for at least the next 7 days, if not beyond (days 8-12 are a little iffy based on what model you look at). So no worries in the short term.

Alicia in 1983 formed from an area of convection after a cold front passed the Gulf Coast. Danny in 1997 formed from thunderstorms from a mid-tropospheric trough.

[Texashawk]

Not our area, but there is currently a very dangerous situation developing near Harlingen. Some areas west of the city have gotten over 11” in just a few hours. Flash flood emergency has been declared....

Flash Flood Warning

10:49 PM CDT, 6/24,expires 12:00 AM CDT, 6/25

... Flash flood emergency for extreme eastern Hidalgo, western Willacy and extreme northwestern Cameron counties...

The National Weather Service in Brownsville has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for... east central Hidalgo County in deep south Texas... northwestern Cameron County in deep south Texas... western Willacy County in deep south Texas...

* until 145 am CDT.

* At 1044 PM CDT, Hidalgo County emergency management reported 3 to 4 feet of water depth in the Monte Alto area and numerous deep water rescues ongoing. This is a flash flood emergency for the Monte Alto, Lasara, Sebastian, Santa Rosa and Lyford areas. This is a particularly dangerous situation. Seek higher ground now!

* Some locations that will experience flooding include... Raymondville, Elsa, Edcouch, Santa Rosa, Lyford, La Villa, Lasara and Sebastian.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Move to higher ground now. This is an extremely dangerous and life-threatening situation. Do not attempt to travel unless you are fleeing an area subject to flooding or under an evacuation order.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding.


Lat... Lon 2658 9774 2633 9771 2615 9776 2621 9803 2660 9795


Speece

[Katdaddy]

Another day of scattered showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rain being the main threat. The SPC has a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms across all of SE TX today. The radar this morning shows scattered showers and thunderstorms along the Upper TX Coast from Houston SW to Matagorda County which will effecting the morning commute again.

[Cromagnum]

Pretty feisty to the southwest. Tons of lightning near Pearland and Manvel right now.

[Texaspirate11]

woke up to thunder and lightning down here by the bay

[unome]

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
647 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019

TXZ338-251215-
Coastal Galveston TX-
647 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL GALVESTON COUNTY
UNTIL 715 AM CDT...

At 647 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Texas City, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Texas City, La Marque and San Leon.

[unome]

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
649 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019

TXZ237-337-251215-
Inland Brazoria TX-Coastal Brazoria TX-
649 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL BRAZORIA COUNTY UNTIL 715
AM CDT...

At 649 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Bailey's Prairie, or over Angleton, moving northeast at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Northern Lake Jackson, Angleton and Bailey's Prairie.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

[unome]

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
651 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019

TXZ214-251230-
Chambers TX-
651 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN CHAMBERS COUNTY UNTIL 730
AM CDT...

At 651 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southeast of Anahuac, or 16 miles east of Beach City, moving
northeast at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Winnie and Stowell.

[srainhoutx]

Locations on the Eastside along the East Belt/Carpenters Bayou have seen near 3 inches fall the past couple of hours

[unome]

east coast of Mexico is getting deluged https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &sector=gm

wv today.jpg

[srainhoutx]

east coast of Mexico is getting deluged https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &sector=gm

wv today.jpg

You can see the moisture channel all the back down to EPAC Invest 93E