June 2019: Showers/Storms Increasing To End June

[jasons2k]

Nice to see rain on the radar again. I won’t have to worry about the lawn

[unome]

Nice to see rain on the radar again. I won’t have to worry about the lawn

my thoughts exactly, no watering this week the lightning was intense at times

http://gis.centerpointenergy.com/outage ... index.html

As of 6/24/2019 6:45:52 AM, CenterPoint Energy reporting 24233 Customers without lights. Next update in 5 Minutes.

[unome]

https://www.etrviewoutage.com/map?state=tx

Affected Customers: 5,856
Last Updated: Jun 24, 6:55 AM

Montgomery County has the highest # of outages on their data/map

[MontgomeryCoWx]

2 inches of rain and serious lightning show this morning

[Cromagnum]

Huge gust front in Rosharon

[srainhoutx]

Happy the rain/storms held together enough to give us a drink of water and cooler temperatures. Looks like another storm complex may drop into the area Tuesday as well as a chance of seabreeze showers/storms possible the rest of the work week. Increasing rain chance look possible for the weekend as a weakness/inverted trough becomes situated over us. We are half way through the year and no drought worries.

[srainhoutx]

Monday morning weather briefing from Jeff:

Line of strong thunderstorms with heavy rainfall continues to progress southward across the region and currently extends from Columbus to Freeport

Rainfall this morning has averaged 1-2 inches across much of Harris and surrounding continues with isolated totals of 5 inches near Tomball and 2-3 inches from The Woodlands to Cypress…2-3 inches over Bellaire and Meyerland…and 2-3 inches over the Baytown area.

Heaviest rainfall rates are shifting toward the coast with lingering lighter rates inland north of I-10. Complex of storms will continue to push SSW and offshore over the next few hours with rainfall gradually ending. While rainfall has been intense at times this morning resulting in some street flooding, bayous and creeks are well within their banks although Willow Creek near and downstream of Tomball is high.

Forecast:
Air mass is currently stabilizing behind this line of storms and while there will likely be some degree of clearing this afternoon any additional development should be isolated at best. Another shortwave trough moves into central TX on Tuesday and this feature looks to arrive into SE TX Tuesday afternoon during peak heating. Air mass will have had time to recharge by Tuesday afternoon and expect showers and thunderstorms to develop once again. Will need to keep an eye on cell motions of Tuesday afternoon as the steering column weakens and this could allow slow moving heavy rainfall.

[Cromagnum]

Storming like crazy down in Lake Jackson

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 241147
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
647 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

.AVIATION...
Ongoing thunderstorms across metro and points south over the next
couple of hours...light rain letting up north of the city through
14 or 15Z. TSRA activity to work its way to the coast by 13Z and
then focus along coast and points offhsore for remainder of
morning. Afternoon VFR with few-sct low and mid level clouds with
light east to southeast winds. Overnight into early Tuesday
morning return to higher rain chances as a shortwave trough passes
across eastern Texas. VCSH possibly transitioning to -TSRA in
IAH`s extended final 6 hours. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019/

DISCUSSION...

- Severe thunderstorm watch to expire at 4AM. Severe threat if any
looks rather small. Line of storms mainly producing 30-40 mph
wind gusts. Main concern the next 3 to 6 hours will be locally
heavy rainfall with showers in the low level jet axis merging
with the line causing an increase in rain rates.

- Tuesday there is the potential for more heavy rainfall due to a
combination of several factors. There could be another solid
inch of rain to occur but likely depend upon convective
evolution on the mesoscale.

SHORT TERM [Today Through Tuesday]...

A ragged line of early morning showers and thunderstorms moving
across the northern forecast area with thin lines of precipitation
feeding into this activity. So far, this activity is behaving
itself. The near term forecast still calls for the southern
advancement of a cold pool-driven broken line of showers and
thunderstorms to pass across the region this morning. Current
timing has a somewhat disorganized QLCS impacting the city just
before sunrise and then reaching the coast in the late morning
hours. Not anticipating severe with this activity although the
strongest storms could put down greater than 30 knot wind gusts
and small hail. After a couple of warm mornings in the lower 80s,
this passing rain will `cool` many north of the city to the middle
70s. A mainly overcast day with slight to low end chances for
spotty return precipitation. The highest chances for shower and
storm coverage will be near the coast and points just offshore, or
where the remnants of this morning`s outflow boundary will hang
up. The afternoon will warm up into the upper 80s to lower 90s
and, with dew points in the middle 70s, this will produce 100 to
105 F afternoon heat indices.

The models want to develop a shortwave trough across central
state later today and then pull this feature across the eastern
Texas early Tuesday. Couple the lift provided by weak PVA with
higher bouts of greater than 1.8 inch pwat air advecting in from
the Gulf and you have some of the ingredients needed to place
moderate to high end rain chances in for Tuesday. An uncapped
Tuesday daytime environment will produce low level 7 to 8 deg C
rates leading to near 4k J/kg CAPE and -11 L.I.s. The GFS as well
as the WRF solutions want to fire convection ahead of the west
central Texas dry line boundary. They push this activity east into
our area during peak heating so, if this scenario stays
consistent through tonight, Tuesday`s POPs will be on the rise. A
backing LLJ and weak upshear Corfidi vectors indicate slow(ing)
storm motions. This increases the potential for higher rainfall
rates making the storm threat mode that of flooding on Tuesday. 31

LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Monday]...

Wednesday into Thursday upper level ridging should become more
pronounced over northern Mexico, southern Rockies and into the
Plains. SE Texas will be on the edge of this ridge so we will need
to carry at least 10 to 20 PoPs as there will still be some
decent moisture over the area. Any showers and storms will be
diurnally driven with low end threats of brief heavy rain,
lightning and gusty winds.

The weekend still looks to feature the development of an inverted
upper level trough or weakness in the ridge over the NW Gulf into
Texas. The problem is that all the models show differing
evolutions and timing for this trough development. For now we will
go with a climo 20 to 30 PoP across the area seeing that the
atmosphere by this time should be more favorable for convection
than not. Towards day 8/9 the GFS shows a surge in tropical
moisture along the lower TX coast so this may be worth watching
for an increase in thunderstorm chances.

Overpeck

MARINE...

The main marine hazards of strong southerly winds and rough seas
will continue this morning. A squall line should push off the
coast later this morning and this should allow for winds to
decrease after it moves through the upper Texas coast. Small craft
advisories will continue until the late morning hours when winds
should decrease. Seas will be slow to decrease but should begin to
happen this afternoon and tonight. Winds should remain around
moderate levels for much of the week and then decrease late in the
week. This will allow for seas to slowly decrease to less than 3
feet by the end of the week.

The other concern will be rip currents for Gulf facing beaches.
We will need to take this hazard day by day as winds should be
decreasing and cause less wave run up. Rip current threat should
be on the decline but we will coordinate with area beach patrols
to determine the risk.

Overpeck

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 91 75 91 73 92 / 50 30 60 40 20
Houston (IAH) 90 78 91 76 93 / 50 30 50 50 10
Galveston (GLS) 88 83 89 81 90 / 100 30 30 20 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 10 AM CDT this morning for the
following zones: Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island and
Bolivar Peninsula...Matagorda Islands.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 10 AM CDT this morning
for the following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...31
Aviation/Marine...31

[unome]

surprised to still hear rumbles of thunder, lightning off to our nnw - doesn't look at all apparent on radar

http://map.blitzortung.org/#8.87/30.0863/-95.7936

https://radar.weather.gov/lite/N0R/HGX_loop.gif

[redneckweather]

More showers and storms forming from College Station and back northwest of Austin moving south eastward. The forecast looks quiet today but full sun out now in my neck of the woods in Montgomery County.

[Cromagnum]

At least two trees blown down at work.

[DoctorMu]

Message: NOAA-NWS-ALERTS-TX125CFEFB2CEC.SpecialWeatherStatement.125CFEFB4BC8TX.HGXSPSHGX.70cd504c1f098feea484fc838381f216 from w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Sent: 11:51 CDT on 06-24-2019
Effective: 01:51 CDT on 06-25-2019
Expires: 12:30 CDT on 06-24-2019
Event: Special Weather Statement
Alert:
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BURLESON AND WEST CENTRAL BRAZOS
COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 PM CDT...

At 1149 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles northwest of Caldwell, moving east at 25 mph.
Pea size hail and winds in excess of 35 mph will be possible with
this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Western Bryan, Caldwell, Snook, Wixon Valley, Lyons, Deanville and
Chriesman.
Instructions:
Target Area:
Brazos
Burleson

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 241734
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1234 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

.DISCUSSION...

18Z Aviation...Still seeing light to moderate RA at GLS which
should shift offshore in an hour or two. An upper level
disturbance is producing scattered TSRA around CLL, expect this
area of convection to remain NW of other SE TX TAF sites this
afternoon. There will be a chance of more showers beginning around
midnight near the coast and expanding inland through the morning.
Not very confident on the timing and location of TSRA tomorrow,
so have opted to keep VCSH in the forecast for now. LW

&&

[Rip76]

No chance of a GOM spin up from this is there?

[Cromagnum]

No chance of a GOM spin up from this is there?

I get that a low blowing into the Gulf could technically develop, but how often does that actually happen? Any front strong enough to clear the coast usually keeps on trucking or fizzles out

[Belmer]

No chance of a GOM spin up from this is there?

I get that a low blowing into the Gulf could technically develop, but how often does that actually happen? Any front strong enough to clear the coast usually keeps on trucking or fizzles out

Actually not as rare as you think. This isn't necessarily a "cold front" that pushed through so-to-speak. But it mirrors one in a sense with a QLCS pushing through this morning and out into the Gulf. Typically when you have a boundary or a trough like that in place and the convection stays persistent - you can get a slow (or sometimes fast) organized low to develop if the conditions are just right. Two examples that come to mind are Humberto and Emily.
Humberto developed just south of Texas, (about 100 miles south of Galveston) in 2007 in early September after a front pushed through and stalled off the coast. Went from Tropical Depression to a Category 1 Hurricane in less than 24-hours before making landfall just east of Galveston.
Emily was very rare in that a front actually pushed off the southeast U.S. coast into the Gulf the last week of July in 2017 and quickly intensified into a Tropical Storm before making landfall near Tampa and then moving into the Atlantic.
I know there have been other examples of tropical systems forming off of old boundaries, but don't know all of them off the top of my head. They happen off the east U.S. coast in the Atlantic Basin as well.

While I've learned to never say never when it comes to Mother Nature, in this case, it would be highly unlikely for this storm to get organized in the Gulf. Shear is high and looks to remain high for at least the next 7 days, if not beyond (days 8-12 are a little iffy based on what model you look at). So no worries in the short term.

[Cromagnum]

Looks like storms to our NW are burning out. Atmosphere probably too worked over.

[Cromagnum]

Looks like storms to our NW are burning out. Atmosphere probably too worked over.

Hmm, maybe I spoke too soon.

[Ptarmigan]

No chance of a GOM spin up from this is there?

I get that a low blowing into the Gulf could technically develop, but how often does that actually happen? Any front strong enough to clear the coast usually keeps on trucking or fizzles out

Actually not as rare as you think. This isn't necessarily a "cold front" that pushed through so-to-speak. But it mirrors one in a sense with a QLCS pushing through this morning and out into the Gulf. Typically when you have a boundary or a trough like that in place and the convection stays persistent - you can get a slow (or sometimes fast) organized low to develop if the conditions are just right. Two examples that come to mind are Humberto and Emily.
Humberto developed just south of Texas, (about 100 miles south of Galveston) in 2007 in early September after a front pushed through and stalled off the coast. Went from Tropical Depression to a Category 1 Hurricane in less than 24-hours before making landfall just east of Galveston.
Emily was very rare in that a front actually pushed off the southeast U.S. coast into the Gulf the last week of July in 2017 and quickly intensified into a Tropical Storm before making landfall near Tampa and then moving into the Atlantic.
I know there have been other examples of tropical systems forming off of old boundaries, but don't know all of them off the top of my head. They happen off the east U.S. coast in the Atlantic Basin as well.

While I've learned to never say never when it comes to Mother Nature, in this case, it would be highly unlikely for this storm to get organized in the Gulf. Shear is high and looks to remain high for at least the next 7 days, if not beyond (days 8-12 are a little iffy based on what model you look at). So no worries in the short term.

Alicia in 1983 formed from an area of convection after a cold front passed the Gulf Coast. Danny in 1997 formed from thunderstorms from a mid-tropospheric trough.