June 2019: Showers/Storms Increasing To End June

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
redneckweather
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More showers and storms forming from College Station and back northwest of Austin moving south eastward. The forecast looks quiet today but full sun out now in my neck of the woods in Montgomery County.
Cromagnum
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At least two trees blown down at work.
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DoctorMu
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Message: NOAA-NWS-ALERTS-TX125CFEFB2CEC.SpecialWeatherStatement.125CFEFB4BC8TX.HGXSPSHGX.70cd504c1f098feea484fc838381f216 from w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Sent: 11:51 CDT on 06-24-2019
Effective: 01:51 CDT on 06-25-2019
Expires: 12:30 CDT on 06-24-2019
Event: Special Weather Statement
Alert:
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BURLESON AND WEST CENTRAL BRAZOS
COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 PM CDT...

At 1149 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles northwest of Caldwell, moving east at 25 mph.
Pea size hail and winds in excess of 35 mph will be possible with
this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Western Bryan, Caldwell, Snook, Wixon Valley, Lyons, Deanville and
Chriesman.
Instructions:
Target Area:
Brazos
Burleson
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 241734
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1234 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

.DISCUSSION...

18Z Aviation...Still seeing light to moderate RA at GLS which
should shift offshore in an hour or two. An upper level
disturbance is producing scattered TSRA around CLL, expect this
area of convection to remain NW of other SE TX TAF sites this
afternoon. There will be a chance of more showers beginning around
midnight near the coast and expanding inland through the morning.
Not very confident on the timing and location of TSRA tomorrow,
so have opted to keep VCSH in the forecast for now. LW

&&
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Rip76
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No chance of a GOM spin up from this is there?
Cromagnum
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Rip76 wrote: Mon Jun 24, 2019 1:55 pm No chance of a GOM spin up from this is there?
I get that a low blowing into the Gulf could technically develop, but how often does that actually happen? Any front strong enough to clear the coast usually keeps on trucking or fizzles out
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Belmer
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Cromagnum wrote: Mon Jun 24, 2019 3:11 pm
Rip76 wrote: Mon Jun 24, 2019 1:55 pm No chance of a GOM spin up from this is there?
I get that a low blowing into the Gulf could technically develop, but how often does that actually happen? Any front strong enough to clear the coast usually keeps on trucking or fizzles out

Actually not as rare as you think. This isn't necessarily a "cold front" that pushed through so-to-speak. But it mirrors one in a sense with a QLCS pushing through this morning and out into the Gulf. Typically when you have a boundary or a trough like that in place and the convection stays persistent - you can get a slow (or sometimes fast) organized low to develop if the conditions are just right. Two examples that come to mind are Humberto and Emily.
Humberto developed just south of Texas, (about 100 miles south of Galveston) in 2007 in early September after a front pushed through and stalled off the coast. Went from Tropical Depression to a Category 1 Hurricane in less than 24-hours before making landfall just east of Galveston.
Emily was very rare in that a front actually pushed off the southeast U.S. coast into the Gulf the last week of July in 2017 and quickly intensified into a Tropical Storm before making landfall near Tampa and then moving into the Atlantic.
I know there have been other examples of tropical systems forming off of old boundaries, but don't know all of them off the top of my head. They happen off the east U.S. coast in the Atlantic Basin as well.

While I've learned to never say never when it comes to Mother Nature, in this case, it would be highly unlikely for this storm to get organized in the Gulf. Shear is high and looks to remain high for at least the next 7 days, if not beyond (days 8-12 are a little iffy based on what model you look at). So no worries in the short term. :)
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Cromagnum
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Looks like storms to our NW are burning out. Atmosphere probably too worked over.
Cromagnum
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Cromagnum wrote: Mon Jun 24, 2019 3:59 pm Looks like storms to our NW are burning out. Atmosphere probably too worked over.
Hmm, maybe I spoke too soon.
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Ptarmigan
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Belmer wrote: Mon Jun 24, 2019 3:33 pm
Cromagnum wrote: Mon Jun 24, 2019 3:11 pm
Rip76 wrote: Mon Jun 24, 2019 1:55 pm No chance of a GOM spin up from this is there?
I get that a low blowing into the Gulf could technically develop, but how often does that actually happen? Any front strong enough to clear the coast usually keeps on trucking or fizzles out

Actually not as rare as you think. This isn't necessarily a "cold front" that pushed through so-to-speak. But it mirrors one in a sense with a QLCS pushing through this morning and out into the Gulf. Typically when you have a boundary or a trough like that in place and the convection stays persistent - you can get a slow (or sometimes fast) organized low to develop if the conditions are just right. Two examples that come to mind are Humberto and Emily.
Humberto developed just south of Texas, (about 100 miles south of Galveston) in 2007 in early September after a front pushed through and stalled off the coast. Went from Tropical Depression to a Category 1 Hurricane in less than 24-hours before making landfall just east of Galveston.
Emily was very rare in that a front actually pushed off the southeast U.S. coast into the Gulf the last week of July in 2017 and quickly intensified into a Tropical Storm before making landfall near Tampa and then moving into the Atlantic.
I know there have been other examples of tropical systems forming off of old boundaries, but don't know all of them off the top of my head. They happen off the east U.S. coast in the Atlantic Basin as well.

While I've learned to never say never when it comes to Mother Nature, in this case, it would be highly unlikely for this storm to get organized in the Gulf. Shear is high and looks to remain high for at least the next 7 days, if not beyond (days 8-12 are a little iffy based on what model you look at). So no worries in the short term. :)
Alicia in 1983 formed from an area of convection after a cold front passed the Gulf Coast. Danny in 1997 formed from thunderstorms from a mid-tropospheric trough.
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