June 2019: Showers/Storms Increasing To End June

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djjordan
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June 2019: Showers/Storms Increasing To End June

Post by djjordan » Tue May 28, 2019 3:48 am

Can't believe we are halfway through 2019 already. June marks the beginning of the Atlantic Hurricane season and as always this forum is on top of everything tropics!!! Summertime heat, humidity, afternoon Showers/T-storms. I have moved out of Sugar Land and up into Montgomery County recently so looking forward to monitoring from a new location.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~

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Re: June 2019: Hurricane Season Begins

Post by BlueJay » Tue May 28, 2019 9:05 am

Welcome to MOCO dj!

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Re: June 2019: Hurricane Season Begins

Post by Texaspirate11 » Tue May 28, 2019 11:11 am

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Re: June 2019: Hurricane Season Begins

Post by srainhoutx » Thu May 30, 2019 7:26 am

The overnight guidance suggests a potentially active and 'wetter' pattern developing next week as a West Coast upper low meanders East beneath a developing North Central United States Upper Ridge. Such a pattern suggests a chance of nocturnal thunderstorm complexes near N Texas/Oklahoma moving South for several days. The models also indicate some deep tropical moisture may move NW out of the Western Caribbean into the Western Gulf adding fuel for increased rain chances. We will see.
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05302019 00Z ECMWF 192 ecmwf_z500a_namer_9.png
05302019 06Z FV3 186 fv3p_z500a_namer_32.png
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Re: June 2019: Hurricane Season Begins

Post by jasons2k » Thu May 30, 2019 2:02 pm

BlueJay wrote:
Tue May 28, 2019 9:05 am
Welcome to MOCO dj!
Yes! Welcome to the land of trees!!

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Re: June 2019: Hurricane Season Begins

Post by srainhoutx » Fri May 31, 2019 1:07 pm

The first day or two of June look warm and relatively uneventful, but changes are brewing for next week. Our old friend the Central America monsoonal gyre appears to attempt develop an area of disturbed weather in the Bay of Campeche. The first impressive surge of deep tropical moisture from the NW Caribbean Sea is pulled NW in the Western and NW Gulf of Mexico. PW's of near 2.5 inches or higher arrive along the Gulf Coast early next week as a robust upper air disturbance moves in our direction from South California.

The afternoon computer models all hint at increasing rainfall chances and the ECMWF even attempts to spin up a weak low pressure system along the Lower Texas Coast that heads NE as that upper air feature treks across the Southern Plains.
05312019 12Z 48 ecmwf_mslp_uv850_watl_3.png
05312019 12Z 72 ecmwf_mslp_uv850_watl_4.png
05312019 12Z 144 ecmwf_mslp_uv850_scus_7.png
05312019 12Z 168 ecmwf_mslp_uv850_watl_8.png
two_atl_5d0(12).png
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Re: June 2019: Hurricane Season Begins

Post by stormlover » Fri May 31, 2019 2:54 pm


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Re: June 2019: Hurricane Season Begins

Post by stormlover » Fri May 31, 2019 10:14 pm

We now have an invest

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Re: June 2019: Hurricane Season Begins/INVEST 91L/SW Gulf

Post by srainhoutx » Sat Jun 01, 2019 6:59 am

INVEST 91L was designated overnight for the SW Gulf area of disturbed weather. the NHC gives it a 50% chance of developing the next 5 days before it interacts with land along the Mexican Gulf Coast. Regardless of any development in the near term, unfavorable wind shear should keep the disturbance in check and increase our rain chances beginning Tuesday down the Coast spreading NE Wednesday into Thursday.
06012019 8 AM  91L two_atl_5d0.png

Code: Select all

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure located over the southern Bay of
Campeche is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  The
low is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward across the
southern Bay of Campeche toward the east coast of Mexico during the
next few days.  If the system remains over water, a tropical
depression could form before it moves inland early next week.
Regardless of development, the disturbance will likely produce heavy
rainfall over portions of southern and southeastern Mexico during
the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Today marks the first day of the Atlantic hurricane season, which
will run until November 30.  Long-term averages for the number of
named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are 12, 6, and 3,
respectively.

The list of names for 2019 is as follows:

Name           Pronunciation    Name            Pronunciation
-------------------------------------------------------------
Andrea         AN-dree-uh       Lorenzo         loh-REN-zoh
Barry          BAIR-ree         Melissa         meh-LIH-suh
Chantal        shahn-TAHL       Nestor          NES-tor
Dorian         DOR-ee-an        Olga            OAL-guh
Erin           AIR-rin          Pablo           PAHB-lo
Fernand        fair-NAHN        Rebekah         reh-BEH-kuh
Gabrielle      ga-bree-ELL      Sebastien       suh-BASH-chuhn
Humberto       oom-BAIR-toh     Tanya           TAHN-yuh
Imelda         ee-MEHL-dah      Van             van
Jerry          JEHR-ee          Wendy           WEN-dee
Karen          KAIR-ren

One named cyclone, Andrea, already formed this year in May.  The
next named storm that forms this season will be Barry.

This product, the Tropical Weather Outlook, briefly describes
significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for
tropical cyclone formation during the next five days.  The issuance
times of this product are 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 AM, and 8 PM EDT.  After the
change to standard time in November, the issuance times are 1 AM, 7
AM, 1 PM, and 7 PM EST.

A Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued to provide
updates, as necessary, in between the regularly scheduled issuances
of the Tropical Weather Outlook.  Special Tropical Weather Outlooks
will be issued under the same WMO and AWIPS headers as the regular
Tropical Weather Outlooks.

A standard package of products, consisting of the tropical cyclone
public advisory, the forecast/advisory, the cyclone discussion, and
a wind speed probability product, is issued every six hours for all
ongoing tropical cyclones.  In addition, a special advisory package
may be issued at any time to advise of significant unexpected
changes or to modify watches or warnings.

The Tropical Cyclone Update is a brief statement to inform of
significant changes in a tropical cyclone or to post or cancel
watches or warnings.  It is used in lieu of or to precede the
issuance of a special advisory package.  Tropical Cyclone Updates,
which can be issued at any time, can be found under WMO header
WTNT61-65 KNHC, and under AWIPS header MIATCUAT1-5.

All National Hurricane Center text and graphical products are
available on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov. You can also
interact with NHC on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/NWSNHC.
Notifications are available via Twitter when select National
Hurricane Center products are issued.  Information about our
Atlantic Twitter feed (@NHC_Atlantic) is available at
https://www.hurricanes.gov/twitter.shtml.

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Re: June 2019: Hurricane Season Begins/INVEST 91L/SW Gulf

Post by srainhoutx » Sat Jun 01, 2019 7:23 am

Saturday morning weather briefing from Jeff:

A broad area of low pressure has formed over the Yucatan Peninsula over the last 24-36 hours due to a complex interaction with a pool of deep tropical moisture and a monsoon trough over central America. As the upper level ridge of high pressure over the SE US weakened in the last 24 hours this has allowed a slow northward migration of low pressure which has been mainly over the land areas of central America.

Early morning visible satellite images show a broad low pressure are is entering the eastern Bay of Campeche. Showers and thunderstorms have been fairly disorganized in association with this feature, but upper level winds are currently fairly favorable for some development as the low moves toward the W/WNW into the Bay of Campeche. Additionally, the land curvature of the south/southwest coast of the Bay of Campeche can help tighten these broad circulations.

Most of the global forecast guidance shows some degree of development with the system as it moves toward the eastern Mexican coast over the next 48 hours. The NHC currently indicates a 50% chance of formation over the next 5 days. The forecast becomes much more uncertain early next week as the tropical feature may move just inland over eastern MX or remain very close to the eastern MX coastline and then turn northward as the high pressure ridge over the NW Gulf breaks down ahead of a trough over the SW US. This is reflected in the ECMWF and its ensemble guidance, while other guidance has the weak feature inland over coastal MX.

Regardless of tropical cyclone formation and the eventual movement and outcome of any tropical system over the SW Gulf, the pattern is favorable by the middle of the week to advect a large pool of deep tropical moisture toward the state of TX. Rain chances will greatly increase starting late Tuesday into Wednesday and likely peak on Thursday. Heavy rainfall will be possible especially Wednesday/Thursday. For now will go with increasing tides and seas starting early next week as the long fetch ESE winds over the central and western Gulf will gradually build seas which may peak in the 6-9ft range by the middle to end of next week. Coastal water levels are already elevated and by the middle of the week high tides could be nearing 3.0-3.5 ft. This forecast is likely to change in the coming days as the Gulf system organizes and becomes better defined along with better available guidance.

As with any sort of tropical system in the Gulf it is important to check weather forecasts at least daily for any changes.
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