he Storm Prediction Center has placed a POTENTIAL DANGEROUS SITUATION TORNADO WATCH for CENTRAL/SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA .... This includes Oklahoma City Metro and nearby Wichita Falls Metro.
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southwest and Central Oklahoma
Western North Texas
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 230 PM
until 1000 PM CDT.
...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
* Primary threats include...
Several tornadoes and a few intense tornadoes likely
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 3 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Isolated intense thunderstorms are expected to affect the
watch area this afternoon and early evening. Any storm that
persists will pose a risk of strong tornadoes, very large hail, and
damaging winds.
MAY 2019: Wednesday Storm Complex/Scattered Showers To End May
Looks like monsoonal gyre season is about to begin. Happens almost every year in June and if that SE ridge holds stout we could get something here.
It's amazing to me how much action they get up in the semi-arid Panhandle and SW Oklahoma, but that same inflow down here along the coast is too dry and capped for anything. Not wishing for severe weather, but a clap of thunder with some rainfall would be welcome.
I just want to know when this wind is going to chill out for awhile....geez already.
That’s what’s been helping feed the tornado outbreaks up north as well. Yeah, I agree with you. It needs to chill out. Drying out everything out way too fast and blowing dust around everywhere.
I only checked every few hours, but I don't know that there were even any confirmed tornadoes in the PDS box. Almost all of the action was northeast of there....tireman4 wrote: ↑Wed May 22, 2019 3:12 pm he Storm Prediction Center has placed a POTENTIAL DANGEROUS SITUATION TORNADO WATCH for CENTRAL/SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA .... This includes Oklahoma City Metro and nearby Wichita Falls Metro.
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southwest and Central Oklahoma
Western North Texas
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 230 PM
until 1000 PM CDT.
...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
* Primary threats include...
Several tornadoes and a few intense tornadoes likely
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 3 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Isolated intense thunderstorms are expected to affect the
watch area this afternoon and early evening. Any storm that
persists will pose a risk of strong tornadoes, very large hail, and
damaging winds.
-
Texaspirate11
- Posts: 1278
- Joined: Tue Dec 31, 2013 12:24 am
- Contact:
Really bad tornado outside of Joplin.
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19616
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
Thursday morning weather briefing from Jeff:
Upper level ridge will gradually amplify over the SE US where an early season record heat wave is likely into next week.
SE TX will lie on the western edge of this ridge with a continued moderate to at times strong onshore flow feeding the “battle” ground across the southern and central plains between the ridge to the SE and trough over the western US. Overall pattern is fairly stagnant with little change expected so tornadoes and flooding will continue into next week across the plains.
Locally, what you see is what you will continue to see with onshore flow helping to maintain overnight lows in the 70’s and daytime highs either side of 90. Smoke continues to transport northward from wildfires in southern MX and visible images show smoke covering all of the southern and western Gulf of Mexico, so this will maintain the smoky/hazy look to the skies. With the upper ridge trying to nose into the area over the weekend into early next week, this will pretty much limit any rain chances. Could maybe see an isolated shower move inland off the Gulf, but they will be few and far and if this were to happen most likely near/around Matagorda Bay.
While heat index values will remain at or below 100, it is important to remember that early season heat can be harder on the body that is still trying to adjust to the new heat stress. Take it easy in the afternoon and try and limit outdoor exposure between the hours of noon and 500pm. Luckily the onshore flow will continue in the 10-20mph range which will help to offer a “cooling” breeze.
Hurricane season begins June 1…get prepared!
Upper level ridge will gradually amplify over the SE US where an early season record heat wave is likely into next week.
SE TX will lie on the western edge of this ridge with a continued moderate to at times strong onshore flow feeding the “battle” ground across the southern and central plains between the ridge to the SE and trough over the western US. Overall pattern is fairly stagnant with little change expected so tornadoes and flooding will continue into next week across the plains.
Locally, what you see is what you will continue to see with onshore flow helping to maintain overnight lows in the 70’s and daytime highs either side of 90. Smoke continues to transport northward from wildfires in southern MX and visible images show smoke covering all of the southern and western Gulf of Mexico, so this will maintain the smoky/hazy look to the skies. With the upper ridge trying to nose into the area over the weekend into early next week, this will pretty much limit any rain chances. Could maybe see an isolated shower move inland off the Gulf, but they will be few and far and if this were to happen most likely near/around Matagorda Bay.
While heat index values will remain at or below 100, it is important to remember that early season heat can be harder on the body that is still trying to adjust to the new heat stress. Take it easy in the afternoon and try and limit outdoor exposure between the hours of noon and 500pm. Luckily the onshore flow will continue in the 10-20mph range which will help to offer a “cooling” breeze.
Hurricane season begins June 1…get prepared!
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
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Texaspirate11
- Posts: 1278
- Joined: Tue Dec 31, 2013 12:24 am
- Contact:
Horrible day/night for Okla and Mo City - 8 years to the day of the Joplin, mo tornado....unome wrote: ↑Thu May 23, 2019 1:17 amJefferson City also
https://www.broadcastify.com/listen/ctid/1504
https://www.weather.gov/lsx/
https://twitter.com/iembot_lsx
https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/lsr/# ... 40459/0100
https://twitter.com/bhensonweather
https://twitter.com/gdimeweather
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
Dry lines and fronts can do wonders with as much moisture inflow that's being pumped over our area and up north. Makes for a much livelier storm season, to say the least.jasons wrote: ↑Wed May 22, 2019 7:40 pm It's amazing to me how much action they get up in the semi-arid Panhandle and SW Oklahoma, but that same inflow down here along the coast is too dry and capped for anything. Not wishing for severe weather, but a clap of thunder with some rainfall would be welcome.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4481
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
The forecast, to which Jeff and Steve have alluded to in their forecasts...
000
FXUS64 KHGX 230915
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
415 AM CDT Thu May 23 2019
.DISCUSSION...
Southeastern Texas getting clipped by a Central Texas near 40
knot low level jet. Our regional morning 30 knot lower layer
winds have translated to 15 to 25 (gust 35) knot surface winds,
especially strongest across the coastal counties. These gusty
overnight winds have prompted a Wind Advisory for the immediate
coastline through 10 AM. Water vapor imagery may be picking up on
a small weak disturbance moving into the northern reaches of the
Mexican Provinces of Nuevo Leon and Tamaulipas. This disturbance
may work its way up into southern Texas and reach our far western
zones around Matagorda Bay later this morning. If so, it may
provide enough lift within a conditionally unstable and highly
moist (near 1.7 inch pwat) environment surrounding Matagorda Bay
that, in tandem with a weakening low level 25 knot jet, to
initiate scattered showers and maybe that rogue thunderstorm.
Slight to low end chance POPS for slowly north and eastern
propagating cells along and in the vicinity of the Highway
59/Interstate 69 corridor southwest of metro through the
afternoon. This will probably be the last mentionable chance for
rain in a week. Recently amped up winds will fall back to 10 to
15 knot magnitudes during the day, 5 to 10 knot overnight speeds.
Eastern upper ridging centered over the southeastern U.S. is
forecast to expand westward in the coming days and overtake
eastern Texas. Suppression with these higher heights are expected
to envelop the region and nil any appreciable rain chances through
mid next week. A trend towards relatively drier air moving in on
a general southerly steering flow will assist in ending this trend
of record high minimum temperatures; expect average lower to
middle 70 sunrise temperatures. Partially cloudy days will have
more sun making it to the surface and warming many into the
slightly above normal lower 90s each subsequent day through the
period. Slightly lower humidity levels, per more sunshine
assisting in more efficient afternoon mixing, will keep heat
indices in the mean middle 90s, or a few degrees above ambient
afternoon temperatures through late May. Even though sub 100 heat
indices are forecast, it is important to bear in mind that early
warm season heat, with lessened air quality (as more sun creates
higher levels of lower level ozone), can be a silent killer in
terms of heat-related stress and exhaustion. Limit afternoon
activities, stay shaded and hydrated and always check your
vechicle`s backseat for the little ones. 31
&&
.MARINE...
Moderate onshore flow will persist today and tonight. Will keep the
current configuration of advsy flags in place, though the day shift
may be able to downgrade some locations to caution later today.
Overall trend should be for slightly lower winds/seas as we head
into the weekend...though marine conditions will probably be rougher
than we`ve seen the past several Memorial Day weekends which will
need to be taken into consideration given the high number of people
expected at area beaches and on the water.
Coastal Flood Advisory will continue along the Gulf facing coast
today. Minor coastal flooding remains a possibility around times of
high tide. The more prone location will be the Highway 87/124
intersection on Bolivar today. Levels have been trending down the
past 24-36 hours. We may be able to make this the last
advisory...and transition to more of a beach hazards product
incorporating the primary issue of being the rip current risk for
the holiday weekend.
Winds/seas build again early next week as the pressure gradient
tightens back up. 47
&&
.AVIATION...
Mix of MVFR/VFR ceilings across the area early this morning. Should
transition into mostly VFR this afternoon. There will probably be
some iso shra around, but not planning to include any VCSH wording
attm and let amendments take care of those if need be. Ceilings
should lower back down into MVFR territory this evening. 12z TAF
package should look similar to what`s already out. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 91 75 92 74 91 / 10 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 91 76 92 75 91 / 20 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 86 79 88 79 85 / 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for the following
zones: Brazoria Islands...Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...
Coastal Galveston...Coastal Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...
Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula...Matagorda Islands.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for the
following zones: Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island and
Bolivar Peninsula...Matagorda Islands.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Friday for the following
zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport TX out 20 NM...Matagorda Bay...Waters from
Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...
Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for the
following zones: Galveston Bay.
&&
$$
Discussion...31/47
000
FXUS64 KHGX 230915
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
415 AM CDT Thu May 23 2019
.DISCUSSION...
Southeastern Texas getting clipped by a Central Texas near 40
knot low level jet. Our regional morning 30 knot lower layer
winds have translated to 15 to 25 (gust 35) knot surface winds,
especially strongest across the coastal counties. These gusty
overnight winds have prompted a Wind Advisory for the immediate
coastline through 10 AM. Water vapor imagery may be picking up on
a small weak disturbance moving into the northern reaches of the
Mexican Provinces of Nuevo Leon and Tamaulipas. This disturbance
may work its way up into southern Texas and reach our far western
zones around Matagorda Bay later this morning. If so, it may
provide enough lift within a conditionally unstable and highly
moist (near 1.7 inch pwat) environment surrounding Matagorda Bay
that, in tandem with a weakening low level 25 knot jet, to
initiate scattered showers and maybe that rogue thunderstorm.
Slight to low end chance POPS for slowly north and eastern
propagating cells along and in the vicinity of the Highway
59/Interstate 69 corridor southwest of metro through the
afternoon. This will probably be the last mentionable chance for
rain in a week. Recently amped up winds will fall back to 10 to
15 knot magnitudes during the day, 5 to 10 knot overnight speeds.
Eastern upper ridging centered over the southeastern U.S. is
forecast to expand westward in the coming days and overtake
eastern Texas. Suppression with these higher heights are expected
to envelop the region and nil any appreciable rain chances through
mid next week. A trend towards relatively drier air moving in on
a general southerly steering flow will assist in ending this trend
of record high minimum temperatures; expect average lower to
middle 70 sunrise temperatures. Partially cloudy days will have
more sun making it to the surface and warming many into the
slightly above normal lower 90s each subsequent day through the
period. Slightly lower humidity levels, per more sunshine
assisting in more efficient afternoon mixing, will keep heat
indices in the mean middle 90s, or a few degrees above ambient
afternoon temperatures through late May. Even though sub 100 heat
indices are forecast, it is important to bear in mind that early
warm season heat, with lessened air quality (as more sun creates
higher levels of lower level ozone), can be a silent killer in
terms of heat-related stress and exhaustion. Limit afternoon
activities, stay shaded and hydrated and always check your
vechicle`s backseat for the little ones. 31
&&
.MARINE...
Moderate onshore flow will persist today and tonight. Will keep the
current configuration of advsy flags in place, though the day shift
may be able to downgrade some locations to caution later today.
Overall trend should be for slightly lower winds/seas as we head
into the weekend...though marine conditions will probably be rougher
than we`ve seen the past several Memorial Day weekends which will
need to be taken into consideration given the high number of people
expected at area beaches and on the water.
Coastal Flood Advisory will continue along the Gulf facing coast
today. Minor coastal flooding remains a possibility around times of
high tide. The more prone location will be the Highway 87/124
intersection on Bolivar today. Levels have been trending down the
past 24-36 hours. We may be able to make this the last
advisory...and transition to more of a beach hazards product
incorporating the primary issue of being the rip current risk for
the holiday weekend.
Winds/seas build again early next week as the pressure gradient
tightens back up. 47
&&
.AVIATION...
Mix of MVFR/VFR ceilings across the area early this morning. Should
transition into mostly VFR this afternoon. There will probably be
some iso shra around, but not planning to include any VCSH wording
attm and let amendments take care of those if need be. Ceilings
should lower back down into MVFR territory this evening. 12z TAF
package should look similar to what`s already out. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 91 75 92 74 91 / 10 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 91 76 92 75 91 / 20 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 86 79 88 79 85 / 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for the following
zones: Brazoria Islands...Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...
Coastal Galveston...Coastal Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...
Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula...Matagorda Islands.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for the
following zones: Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island and
Bolivar Peninsula...Matagorda Islands.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Friday for the following
zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport TX out 20 NM...Matagorda Bay...Waters from
Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...
Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for the
following zones: Galveston Bay.
&&
$$
Discussion...31/47
NOAA has come out with their 2019 Hurricane Forecast. Predicting near-normal season. More info in link -
https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa ... ane-season
https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa ... ane-season
- Attachments
-
Blake
Boomer Sooner
Boomer Sooner
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4481
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
00
FXUS64 KHGX 231647
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1147 AM CDT Thu May 23 2019
.AVIATION...
MVFR rising to VFR quickly by afternoon except near the coast. LLJ
over the western areas this morning should help keep it breezy
today with SE winds 13-17g18-25kt. MVFR deck developing and
expanding quickly inland this evening and continuing through mid
morning. LLJ to the west of the region tonight will keep winds up
tonight but it is a little further west and weaker so slightly
lighter winds. Nearly rinse and repeat for the tafs with
persistence.
45
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1053 AM CDT Thu May 23 2019/
UPDATE...
General concept of the forecast is on track, with biggest changes
being to nudge up southerly winds to better track with
observations as well as giving a bit of a re-ramp PoPs in the
west to line up with radar trends as a few sprinkles are beginning
to pop up in Jackson and Wharton County.
FXUS64 KHGX 231647
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1147 AM CDT Thu May 23 2019
.AVIATION...
MVFR rising to VFR quickly by afternoon except near the coast. LLJ
over the western areas this morning should help keep it breezy
today with SE winds 13-17g18-25kt. MVFR deck developing and
expanding quickly inland this evening and continuing through mid
morning. LLJ to the west of the region tonight will keep winds up
tonight but it is a little further west and weaker so slightly
lighter winds. Nearly rinse and repeat for the tafs with
persistence.
45
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1053 AM CDT Thu May 23 2019/
UPDATE...
General concept of the forecast is on track, with biggest changes
being to nudge up southerly winds to better track with
observations as well as giving a bit of a re-ramp PoPs in the
west to line up with radar trends as a few sprinkles are beginning
to pop up in Jackson and Wharton County.
Closer to home, there are some quick-moving showers out there. NWS has upped my POPs up to 30% today.
