MAY 2019: Wednesday Storm Complex/Scattered Showers To End May

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djmike
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Looks like thats a wrap! Thanks as usual to all involved in relaying messages and keeping everyone informed and safe. Its been an eventful week! ...now time for a lazy wet dreary gray day nap. Cheers!
Mike
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Katdaddy
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Good news. The Flash Flood Watch for SE TX has been cancelled. Only areas of light rain currently that will be moving away from the Houston-Galveston areas this evening. A few lucky people may see a ray or two of sunlight during the sunset. Mother's Day will be a nice break from the wet weather. A well needed break for all of us after the last several days.
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Looks like 1-3” Tuesday on the SW side of the viewing area:

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Cpv17
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18z GFS has me here in Wharton County in the bullseye for Tuesday and Wednesday.

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NWS Houston‏Verified account @NWSHouston · 2h2 hours ago

We are glad to be done with that stretch of heavy rainfall & flooding. Here's a look at some 5 day rainfall totals from MRMS data which gives a very close estimate of how much rain fell across the area. 2nd graphic shows a zoomed in look of some of the higher totals. #houwx #txwx

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05122019 HGX Zoomed 5 Day D6XL6DZXoAABq5s.jpg
05122019 HGX 5 Day Rain Totals D6XL5B6WAAYsAU4.jpg
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Texaspirate11
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INTERESTING DISCO THIS MORNING FROM OUR HGX

DISCUSSION...

Instead of a few highlight points on the forecast, we will offer
some post mortem/lessons re-learned thoughts on this past week`s
heavy rainfall and flood events.

- With a few areas getting more than 10 or even 15 inches of
rainfall in short periods of time like Sugar Land, Kingwood,
Pasadena/Deer Park, large hail with high rain rates on Thursday,
there were no flood related fatalities. Just think about that
for a moment.
- The Tuesday heavy rainfall event in which there was more than 10
inches of rain in Sugar Land and Kingwood reminds us how
challenging rainfall forecasting can be as no numerical guidance
came anywhere close to those kinds of rainfall totals or got the
location right. I will shout out to the 00Z May 7 Tuesday WRF-
ARW that indicated 4-5 inches of rain in the Sugar Land area and
stretching west towards Wharton. It was still off by 6-7 inches
of rain or more. However the WRF-ARW performed poorly the rest
of the time.
- Cell mergers, training of cells and storm scale interactions of
outflow boundaries are vitally important to rain rates.
- Weak to marginal upper level wind flow, especially diffluent
flow, helps maintain updrafts with some movement so that
updrafts are separated just enough from downdrafts but not
enough movement so that cell mergers can still occur to enhance
rain rates.
- None of these events had the support of a strong low level jet
or 850mb winds of more than 35 knots. Odd. Very odd. Now think
about what would have happened if there was.
- Thursday`s significant hail event on top of the flood potential
highlights again how hard it is to message multiple hazards.
- Storms becoming slightly more organized in line on Thursday
night that caused a bowing line segment was a silver lining in
disguise because it forced storms to move instead of develop
over the same areas. Because of this cold pool development and
bowing of the line segment, the heavy rainfall and flooding
impacts were not worse over Houston. This was probably one of
the factors that kept a flash flood emergency from happening.
- Thankful that high rain rates did not materialize Saturday. It
seems that Thursday`s convective event really worked over the
atmosphere and it took quite a bit more time for the atmosphere
to recover. There were still some training of cells Saturday but
not enough instability or moisture return to achieve higher rain
rates. It seems the main moisture axis and moisture transport
shifted east quicker than expected. Ask Louisiana about that.
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cperk
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Happy mothers day to all the moms out there.
Cpv17
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According to the past few runs of the GFS, there doesn’t seem to be much going on for the next couple weeks. The Euro is completely different though. I wonder what the ensembles are showing?
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Cpv17 wrote: Sun May 12, 2019 12:29 pm According to the past few runs of the GFS, there doesn’t seem to be much going on for the next couple weeks. The Euro is completely different though. I wonder what the ensembles are showing?
The lack of consistency on forecast model and couple of weeks means little. I would wait another week.
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Katdaddy
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A rather cool May morning with temps mostly in the low 60s with a few mid to upper 50s inland. Another nice weather day across SE TX before rain and thunderstorms increase for the mid-week. This morning’s HOU-GAL AFD Summary:

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
424 AM CDT Mon May 13 2019

.DISCUSSION...

- Rain chances come back into forecast Tuesday into Wednesday. We might see a strong storm or two SW of Houston.
- Added some 20 PoPs to Thur/Fri given warm air advection pattern and model consistency with some type of QPF developing.
- Weekend looking wet with a Pacific front moving into the area with precipitable water values 1.6 to 1.9 inches. May also have to watch for strong/severe storms.
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tireman4
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Flood Warning...
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Flood Warning 05 13 19.JPG
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srainhoutx
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Monday morning weather briefing from Jeff:

After a brief break…somewhat active weather will return to the region through next weekend.

Fairly dry air mass by mid May standards is in place this morning, but that will change as high pressure moves eastward allowing onshore winds to return. Humid air mass south of the region over the Gulf of Mexico is clearly seen in visible images with dense smoke from out of control wildfires in southern Mexico. Thick smoke and humidity will return to the region on Tuesday and will remain in place through much of the week as southerly flow becomes established.

Upper level flow out of the WSW may bring a few disturbances toward the region…the first will be tonight into Tuesday morning. Some of the models develop a thunderstorm complex over central TX and move this complex toward SE TX, but do show significant weakening as it approaches the area Tuesday morning. Meso model have not been great of late especially with these complex of storms coming out of central TX, so not sure exactly how this will play out tonight. Think the best rain chances will be across our western counties and toward Matagorda Bay, but if the complex holds together longer than expected, rain could reach I-45.

Overall trend for the rest of the week will be scattered showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday and then isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. Air mass will be fairly unstable each day, but will need some sort of trigger to get storms going. Not seeing a lot to trigger storms, but would not rule out some activity each day.

Next Weekend:
Forecast becomes more interesting by next weekend as the next upper level trough moves into the plains. Severe weather and heavy rainfall will be possible again for some locations over the southern and central plains, but at this time it is uncertain where this may occur. Plenty of time to watch to see how SE TX may fall into this active period starting next weekend.
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stormlover
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Looking like this weekend maybe Sunday could see some rain
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 131748
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1248 PM CDT Mon May 13 2019

.AVIATION...
Southern TAF sites will get a small cu field this afternoon but
for the remainder of TAF sites, just some mid/high level clouds
are expected through 00z. E-SE winds expected today as high
pressure over N TX drifts east. An upper level disturbance
will bring scattered shra/tsra over the the southern half of the
region on Tuesday. Will carry a VCSH for LBX and added a VCSH for
IAH for the afternoon (18-00z). 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1058 AM CDT Mon May 13 2019/

UPDATE...
High pressure moving across eastern Texas to blame for the great
start to the work week weather-wise. Mostly clear skies with
the region under a relatively drier air mass will have temperatures
steadily climbing into upper 70s to lower 80s. Weak winds are
veering around to the east and should be more south of east across
the coastal counties as heating initiates a late day sea breeze.
Higher moisture will be creeping up from the southwest through
Tuesday....increasing clouds and convective chances around Matagorda
Bay early tomorrow. The latest higher resolution modeling solution(s)
have active weather developing across our southwestern CWA
tomorrow. Thus, there will be higher probabilities for Tuesday
thunderstorms southwest of the city. 31
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srainhoutx
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Heat of the day pop up non severe thunderstorms are possible today as a compact upper low moves across Texas. Daily sea breeze showers and storms are appear possible the rest of the work week. We will need to monitor for organized thunderstorms Saturday afternoon into Sunday. It looks like a significant Severe Weather Outbreak is possible across the Plains and the Mid West on Friday extending into at least mid next week.
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Keeping an eye on the convection to the NW - looking for outflow boundaries.

Incidentally, my dew point is still a relatively low 63.
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Cap will win
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srainhoutx
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We are keeping an eye on the Weekend Weather. A powerful storm system will move from California to the Southern Rockies/Plains Friday setting the stage for a potential large severe weather episode extending from West Texas to Nebraska. On Saturday, thunderstorms may become more organized and a squall line could develop into Central Texas and begin a march East. There are still some timing issues to be ironed out as well as any mesoscale features we cannot know until the thunderstorms actually form. I believe the Saturday afternoon/evening time period will be worth monitoring. The storm system could be a little slower meaning rain and storms could extend into Sunday. Areas along and N of I-10 look to have the best chance of any severe thunderstorms as of this morning. Of course that is subject to change as we get closer to the end of the work week.
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05152019 SPC Day 3 day3otlk_0730.gif
05152019 SPC Day 4 day4prob.gif
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Texaspirate11
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Lucky me, I'll be working in Austin...NBC sports...outdoor coverage...yay
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NWSWGRFC‏Verified account @NWSWGRFC · 6m6 minutes ago

The weather break is over and it is time to get flood prepared. Organized thunderstorms and heavy rainfall over the Brazos, Trinity, Neches, and Sabine Rivers will likely generate new river flooding. Be Aware and Be Prepared! #txflood

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